Twilight Of The American Empire And The Pax Americana

The Next Stage of Russia's Resurgence: The Caucasus States

2012-02-13T23:52:00.001-08:00

From Town Hall:

The Next Stage of Russia's Resurgence: The Caucasus States

George Friedman

The former Soviet republics in the Caucasus -- Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan -- have very different attitudes toward Russia's resurgence. Armenia depends on Russia for its security and is one of Moscow's most loyal allies. Georgia bore the brunt of Russia's resurgence in 2008, when Russia invaded two breakaway Georgian republics (where Russian troops remain stationed), and is likely to resist any further encroachment of Russian influence. Azerbaijan is cooperative with Russia but uses its energy wealth and support for pipeline projects that would not serve Moscow's interests as leverage against its large neighbor.

Armenia

Armenia, located in the South Caucasus, serves as a territorial buffer for Russia to the south. It also gives Moscow a strategic foothold in the center of the Caucasus because it borders both Georgia and Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey and Iran.

Russia's Levers

Political: Russia supports and is allied with Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and his Republican Party of Armenia. Moscow also has ties to former presidents Levon Ter Petrosian and Robert Kocharian.

Social: Armenia represents an Orthodox Christian foothold in the predominantly Muslim Caucasus. Also, a large Armenian diaspora of 1.5 million to 2.5 million people lives in Russia.

Security: Russia is Armenia's security guarantor against Azerbaijan in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. More than 5,000 Russian troops are stationed in Armenia in Russia's 102nd Military Base in Gyumri, and Russia has extended its lease of military facilities to 2044. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Rapid Reaction Force.

Economic: Russia owns most of the pipeline, energy, rail and telecommunications assets in Armenia. Remittances from Armenians working in Russia amount to around 10 percent of Armenia's gross domestic product.

Russia's Successes, Obstacles and Ambitions

During the past two years, Russia strengthened its military presence in Armenia by extending its lease of military facilities to 2044 and getting permission to move Russian troops throughout the country. Russia also manipulated normalization talks between Armenia and Turkey in order to strengthen its relationships with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russia's goals for Armenia for 2012 and beyond include maintaining its current levers in Armenia and preparing Armenia for possible integration into the Common Economic Space and Eurasian Union. Russia also wants to sustain the divisions between Armenia and Azerbaijan (and Baku's ally, Turkey).

Armenia's Position and Strategy

Any government in Armenia will operate in a difficult environment, both geographically and ethnically. Armenia is almost completely mountainous and is surrounded not only by three major powers -- Russia, Turkey and Iran -- but also Georgia, Azerbaijan and other smaller but independently minded ethnic groups. Armenia must, at a minimum, maintain internal consolidation in order to defend itself within the region, but it must also look for an external power patron to protect it from the larger powers. But given Armenia's location and lack of strategic natural resources, balancing external powers against each other to extract concessions is not much of an option.

Armenia has chosen Russia as its external power patron, with Moscow controlling much of the infrastructure in the country. Russia also has a substantial military presence in Armenia that serves as Armenia's security guarantor from Azerbaijan (its adversary in the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial dispute) and from Turkey and Iran (whose borders the Russian military patrols).

Other external powers have very limited influence in Armenia. The country maintains an economic relationship with Iran and has tried normalizing relations with Turkey (which, along with Azerbaijan, has economically blockaded Armenia), though these talks have failed because of Russia's manipulation and the wider geopolitical balance of power in the region. Although Armenia would like to open its borders with Turkey, Russia's security guarantee against Azerbaijan is more important. There is a sizable and influential Armenian diaspora in the United States and France, though its implications are more economic than political, as Armenia is firmly in Russia's orbit and not part of the Western-oriented camp in the former Soviet Union. Barring any substantial weakening of Russia's geopolitical position, Armenia can be expected to remain loyal to Moscow and to continue participating in Russia's regional initiatives.

Georgia

Like Armenia, Georgia is important to Russian security because its location in the Southern Caucasus makes it a territorial buffer from powers like Turkey and Iran. Georgia also flanks restive Northern Caucasus Russian republics like Chechnya, borders the Black Sea and possesses strategic ports.

Russia's Levers

Political: Certain Georgian opposition leaders have espoused the need for closer ties with Russia, and some have met with Russian officials. Russia has weak ties to Georgia's government and business community, however.

Social: Georgia has no significant Russian population. However, approximately 80 percent of the country is Orthodox Christian.

Security: Russia occupies the breakaway Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, with about 3,500 troops stationed in each area. Also, Russian intelligence has penetrated Georgia proper. However, Georgia remains committed to NATO and EU membership and has stayed outside of Russia's alliance system.

Economic: Russia financially supports Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and around 1 million Georgians live in Russia and send remittances back to Georgia.

Russia's Successes, Obstacles and Ambitions

Since 2010, Russia has built up its military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and extended its lease of military facilities there by 49 years. Russia's relationship with important NATO members, particularly Germany and France, has kept the alliance from any meaningful interactions with or presence in Georgia. However, Russia has not been able to create or support a viable opposition movement capable of truly challenging the anti-Russian president of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili.

In the coming months and years, Russia wants to increase the likelihood of the formation of a viable opposition movement in Georgia. It also wants to prevent the West, particularly the United States, from re-engaging in the country.

Georgia's Position and Strategy

Like many former Soviet countries, Georgia is split internally, both in geographic and political terms. Georgia has two breakaway territories, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and two regions with autonomous tendencies, Adjara and Samtskhe-Javakheti. Internal political consolidation is needed to overcome these autonomous tendencies, but that alone is not enough.

Georgia needs an external power patron to counter and potentially overcome Russia's influence and presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. For cultural and historical reasons, neither Iran nor Turkey is an attractive option for Tbilisi, so Georgia has chosen to take its chances with the West, particularly NATO and the U.S. security guarantee membership in NATO implies. However, given the region's geopolitical complexity and the strategic threat Russia poses to Georgia, the West has not been willing to become a reliable ally that guarantees Georgia's security against a resurgent Russia. While Georgia explicitly opposes Russia's resurgence and actively lobbies for Western engagement, it has not been able to receive significant assistance from the West.

This does not mean Georgia has no alternatives to Russia; it has partnered with Azerbaijan and Turkey to form a southern corridor for energy and trade that goes around Russia. But these alternatives are limited to economics and politics and leave Georgia militarily isolated and vulnerable. Lacking NATO membership, Georgia has sought to purchase weapons and build up its own military with help from the United States and Israel, but Russia has been able to obstruct these efforts.

As long as Russia maintains its strong and resurgent position, Georgia is unlikely to get the closer security relationship with the West that it wants. Russia will continue to have difficulties building political and economic ties inside of Georgia proper, but as long as it has its military foothold in the breakaway territories, Georgia's ability to challenge Russia is severely limited.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan, like the other former Soviet states in the Caucasus, serves as a territorial buffer for Russia from the south. It also borders the Caspian and has significant energy resources. Azerbaijan is an important part of a southern corridor that could undermine Russia's importance in the areas of trade and energy.

Russia's Levers

Political: Russia dominates the negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the territorial dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. Moscow's political ties in Azerbaijan are limited compared to Armenia, but it does have strong connections to the political and security elites in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Social: Russia has few ethnic or social ties to Azerbaijan, as most of the population is ethnic Azerbaijani and Muslim.

Security: Russia has a radar installation in Garbala. Its military presence in Armenia and Georgia helps to keep Azerbaijan in check, and Russia has a significant intelligence presence in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is not part of Russia's alliance system, but it is also not part of NATO (though it has a bilateral security partnership with NATO member Turkey).

Economy: Russia does not control Azerbaijan's energy resources but has offered to purchase all of its natural gas. Azerbaijanis working in Russia send home remittances, but the effect of these remittances on the Azerbaijani economy is minimal.

Russia's Successes, Obstacles and Ambitions

Since 2010, Russia has been able to limit Azerbaijan's expansion of energy projects like the Nabucco and Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy pipelines that work against Russia's interests. Russia has also manipulated Azerbaijan's relationship with Armenia and Turkey to its advantage in the wider region. However, Azerbaijan has not sold all of its energy supplies to Russia (it only delivered 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Russia in 2011), and it continues to increase exports to other countries and pursue other southern corridor projects.

Russia's goals for Azerbaijan include preventing Azerbaijan and Turkey from developing a stronger relationship in terms of energy and security. Russia also wants to expand and extend its lease for the Garbala radar station and continue to prevent pipeline projects from coming to fruition.

Azerbaijan's Position and Strategy

Like the other two former Soviet states in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan must have internal consolidation if it is to face the challenges of its difficult environment. Azerbaijan proper is consolidated via a centralized authority and security apparatus. However, its breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is supported by Armenia and secured by a military guarantee from Russia that undermines Azerbaijan's sovereignty in the territory.

Unlike Georgia and Armenia, Azerbaijan has had some success in its second imperative of balancing powers to preserve the sovereignty it has. It owes this success largely to its energy resources. Azerbaijan is the only country in the Caucasus that has avoided having foreign troops on its soil; it has leveraged its energy resources for this purpose. Azerbaijan exports energy to nearly all directions -- to Russia, Iran and the West via Georgia and Turkey -- but not to Armenia.

In terms of security, Azerbaijan knows it cannot be oriented toward Russia, which supports Armenia, or toward Iran, which historically possessed territory that is now part of Azerbaijan and has a large Azerbaijani minority in northern Iran. Therefore, it has partnered with Turkey for military and weapons deals, though Azerbaijan knows this is not enough of a deterrent to match Russia and the country prefers to keep some distance from Ankara. Baku has proceeded cautiously, despite the rhetoric about taking back Nagorno-Karabakh by force. It has focused on building up its energy sector and using its energy revenues to build up its military and economy.

Azerbaijan will continue using its energy and the accompanying pipeline projects in order to protect its sovereignty from its large neighbors, especially Russia. It will be able to maintain this strategy in 2012, and despite Russia's efforts to undermine its energy options Azerbaijan will be the most difficult country in the Caucasus for Russia's resurgence to penetrate, though Baku will certainly not be immune.

This article reprinted with permission of Stratfor.

George Friedman

George Friedman is the CEO and chief intelligence officer of Stratfor, a private intelligence company located in Austin, TX.

Malaysia sends Saudi blogger who criticized Muhammad back to almost certain death

2012-02-13T23:38:00.002-08:00

From Jihad Watch:

Malaysia sends Saudi blogger who criticized Muhammad back to almost certain death
If the West had the courage of its convictions, this would be front-page news everywhere, with condemnations raining down upon the Saudis and calls for the freedom of Hamza Kashgari. Instead, the UN will probably establish another commission on "Islamophobia."

More on this story. "Malaysia deports Saudi blogger behind Prophet Mohammad tweets," by Stuart Grudgings for Reuters, February 12:

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia deported a Saudi Arabian blogger on Sunday, police said, despite fears voiced by human rights groups that he could face execution in his home country over Twitter comments he made that were deemed insulting to the Prophet Mohammad.
Hamza Kashgari, a 23-year-old columnist, sparked outrage in the oil-rich kingdom with comments posted on the Prophet's birthday a week ago that led some Islamic clerics to call for him to face the death penalty.

Kashgari fled the country, but was arrested by police in majority-Muslim Malaysia on Thursday as he transited through Kuala Lumpur international airport.

"The Saudi writer was repatriated to his home country this Sunday morning," a police spokesman told Reuters. "This is an internal Saudi matter that we cannot comment on."

Malaysia has a close affinity with many Middle Eastern nations through their shared religion. The Southeast Asian nation is also a U.S. ally and a leading global voice for moderate Islam, meaning that the decision to extradite Kashgari is certain to be controversial.

"Saudi clerics have already made up their mind that Kashgari is an apostate who must face punishment," Christoph Wilcke, senior Middle East researcher at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement on Friday.

"The Malaysian government should not be complicit in sealing Kashgari's fate by sending him back."

Kashgari's lawyer in Malaysia, Mohammad Noor, told Reuters by telephone that he had obtained a court order to prevent the deportation, but had not been allowed to see his client.

"If the government of Malaysia deports him to Saudi Arabia, disrespecting the court order, this is clearly contempt of court, unlawful and unacceptable," he said.

The Star newspaper quoted Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein as saying that Kashgari had been repatriated and that the charges against him would be decided by Saudi authorities.

"Malaysia has a longstanding arrangement by which individuals wanted by one country are extradited when detained by the other," he was quoted as saying.

Blasphemy is a crime punishable by execution under Saudi Arabia's strict interpretation of Islamic sharia law. It is not a capital crime in Malaysia.

Reuters could not verify Kashgari's comments because he later deleted them, but media reported that one of them reflected his contradictory views of the Prophet - that he both loved and hated him.

Kashgari later said in an interview that he was being made a "scapegoat for a larger conflict" over his comments.

Yes and no.

Posted by Robert on February 12, 2012 5:33 AM

Gaza top dog in Tehran: Hamas "will never recognize Israel"

2012-02-13T23:38:00.000-08:00

From Jihad Watch:

Gaza top dog in Tehran: Hamas "will never recognize Israel"
And Hamas is forming a unity government with Fatah, which the Obama Administration regards as the moderate faction to which Israel must make concessions in order to bring about peace. "Gaza premier: Hamas 'will never recognise Israel,'" from AFP, February 11 (thanks to Wimpy):

Hamas "will never recognise Israel," Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniya said Saturday in a speech in Iran that is likely to complicate Palestinian efforts to form a unity government in the teeth of opposition from the Jewish state.
"They want us to recognise the Israeli occupation and cease resistance but, as the representative of the Palestinan people and in the name of all the world's freedom seekers, I am announcing from Azadi Square in Tehran that we will never recognise Israel," Haniya said.

"The resistance will continue until all Palestinian land, including Al-Quds (Jerusalem), has been liberated and all the refugees have returned," he said.

Haniya's reiteration of Hamas's long-held stance was made on the occasion of Iran's commemoration of its 1979 Islamic revolution.

The Gaza leader spoke to an estimated crowd of 30,000 from a stage alongside Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"The Iranian people are a partner in this victory," Haniya said. "God willing, we will met you along with other Palestinians in a free Palestine, in its capital Al-Quds," he said.

Israel rejects efforts by Hamas to link up with Fatah, the secular faction of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas that runs the West Bank, to form a unity government. It views Hamas as a terrorist organisation and Iran as its sponsor and weapon supplier.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told UN envoys on Thursday that a Hamas-Fatah accord signed this week to partner in the new government "does not contribute to the advancement of peace negotiations or the well-being of the Palestinian people."...

No kidding, really?

Posted by Robert on February 12, 2012 4:48 AM |

Hamas brass in Gaza reject reconciliation with Fatah

2012-02-13T23:34:00.001-08:00

From Jihad Watch:

Hamas brass in Gaza reject reconciliation with Fatah

Fast Jihad does not want to relinquish territory to Slow Jihad. An update on this story. "Hamas strongman in Gaza rejects unity deal," by Mohammed Daragmeh for the Associated Press, February 12:

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — A rare public rift broke open Sunday in the usually tightly disciplined Islamic movement Hamas over a reconciliation deal that would require it to relinquish key areas of control in the Gaza Strip.
The deal, brokered by Qatar, was signed last week in Doha by Hamas' top leader in exile, Khaled Mashaal, and the chief of the rival Fatah party, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The agreement is to end nearly five years of separate governments — Hamas in Gaza and Abbas in the West Bank — by establishing an interim unity government headed by Abbas that would prepare for Palestinian elections.
Senior Hamas figures in Gaza, who stand to lose most from the deal, said it was unacceptable, while top Hamas loyalists in the West Bank defended the agreement. The argument raised new questions about the ability of Abbas and Mashaal to implement the deal, seen as their best shot yet at healing the rift following Hamas' violent takeover of Gaza in 2007.
Mashaal might be able to put down the unprecedented rebellion against him, but would need the good will and cooperation of Hamas leaders in Gaza to make the agreement work.
Gaza strongman Mahmoud Zahar, one of the masterminds of the Gaza takeover, said Mashaal did not consult with others in the movement before signing the deal. Giving Abbas the post of interim prime minister is "wrong" and "strategically unacceptable," Zahar was quoted as telling the Egyptian news agency MENA on Saturday.
On Sunday, the head of the bloc of Hamas legislators in Gaza, Ismail al-Ashkar, alleged that Fatah has not carried out promised confidence building measures, such as releasing Hamas loyalists held in the West Bank.
"If the elections are to heal all our chronic, complicated problems, how can we have transparent and fair elections under such conditions," al-Ashkar said. "If this agreement is to work, we need to improve it."
Last week, al-Ashkar's parliament bloc came out against the agreement.
In contrast, Hamas lawmakers from the West Bank supported the Doha agreement across the board, according to statements and interviews published on Hamas' official website. Such public debate is rare in the secretive, tightly organized Hamas.
The criticism of the Hamas leaders in Gaza highlights the vulnerability of the Doha agreement.
Abbas needs to satisfy international demands that the interim government — to consist of politically independent technocrats — is not a front for Hamas, shunned as a terror group. If it is seen as too close to Hamas, the Palestinians would likely lose hundreds of millions of dollars in Western aid.
At the same time, he risks sabotage from Hamas leaders in Gaza if he tries to strip them of too much of their power.
"If Abbas forms his government with one color, it won't work in Gaza," said Raed Naerat, a West Bank analyst close to Hamas. "The ministers should be acceptable to Hamas officials."

Posted by Marisol on February 12, 2012 7:24 AM

Government Shields Intel by Changing Law

2012-02-13T23:25:00.000-08:00

Government Shields Intel by Changing Law

Accusation of Blasphemy in Saudi Arabia Means Death Sentence

2012-02-13T23:22:00.001-08:00

Accusation of Blasphemy in Saudi Arabia Means Death Sentence

Jordan' s King Abdullah needs to wake up - Fast

2012-02-13T23:22:00.000-08:00

Jordan' s King Abdullah needs to wake up - Fast

Dempsey Addresses Concerns With Egyptian Military Leaders

2012-02-13T23:21:00.001-08:00

From: American Forces Press Service
Date: 02/12/2012
Subject: Dempsey Addresses Concerns With Egyptian Military Leaders

You are subscribed to American Forces News Articles for U.S. Department of Defense. This information has recently been updated, and is now available.

Dempsey Addresses Concerns With Egyptian Military Leaders

02/12/2012 07:18 PM CST

Dempsey Addresses Concerns With Egyptian Military Leaders

By Cheryl Pellerin
American Forces Press Service

ABOARD A MILITARY AIRCRAFT, Feb. 12, 2012 - The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said he voiced both concerns and commitment to Egyptian defense leaders during meetings held yesterday in Cairo.

Egyptian Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, left, Egyptian Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Enan, chief of staff of the Egyptian armed forces, center, and U.S. Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speak with each other at the Egyptian Ministry of Defense in Cairo, Egypt, Feb. 11, 2012. DOD photo by D. Myles Cullen
(Click photo for screen-resolution image);high-resolution image available.

Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey met with his Egyptian counterpart, Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Enan, as well as with Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and other officials at Egypt's Ministry of Defense.

They discussed the long-term relationship between the U.S. and Egypt and several of that nation's regional issues. They also addressed Egypt's investigation of allegedly illegal foreign funding for pro-democracy nongovernmental organizations by more than 40 Egyptian and American activists, including 19 U.S. citizens.

Several Americans who are targets of the investigation have not been allowed to leave Egypt and have taken refuge at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo. Dempsey's trip was planned long before this situation developed and caused tension between the two nations.

"We discussed that [situation] very professionally," the chairman told American Forces Press Service during the flight back. "I expressed the fact that it caused us concern, not only about the particular NGOs and individuals currently unable to leave the country, but rather more broadly."

Dempsey said he asked the defense leaders, "'What signal should I take from this in terms of how you see Egypt's future? Are you going to become isolated? Are you going to preserve individual freedoms or deny them?'" He noted that "they don't have the answers right now."

Along with his concern, the chairman expressed the Defense Department's commitment to common interests, choices and consequences.

Dempsey, who happened to visit Cairo on the Feb. 11 anniversary of the overthrow of former President Hosni Mubarak, said that although Egypt has always had a military president, the country "has never been a democracy of the sort they're trying to develop now."

The chairman added, "Frankly they're struggling -- I think [that] is probably a fair term -- to figure this all out, to follow the timeline for the different elections, the framing of the constitution and eventually the presidential elections in June."

Dempsey said he found the Egyptian military "quite eager" to get out of the country-running business.

The chairman has had five-year relationship with Enan and Tantawi that began in 2007 when Dempsey was deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, and that continued after he became acting commander in 2008.

On the foundation of that relationship, Dempsey said, he went into what might have been a tough meeting and was able to be candid.

"But we've got some work to do" on resolving tensions related to the NGO issue, he added, "and so do they."

The military leaders also discussed joint exercises like Bright Star, a biennial, multi-national exercise designed to strengthen military-to-military relationships and improve readiness and interoperability between U.S., Egyptian and coalition forces.

"We of course postponed it in [20]11 because [the Egyptian military leaders] were rather busy," Dempsey said, adding, "We're both eager to pick it up again in [20]13. But there are some issues that have to be resolved soon in order to do that."

During a year filled with monumental changes for the government, citizens and military forces of Egypt, the army has become inwardly focused on such new responsibilities as internal security, the chairman said.

"I think they've adapted to that pretty well," Dempsey said, and attributed the country's ability "to promote a process toward democracy -- notice I didn't say they're there yet -- because of our relationship with them."

At any given time, he added, "200 to 300 of their officers are in our schools, and I think that we should take some sense of satisfaction that they have done that."

Dempsey said the U.S. military will continue to remain engaged with Egyptian leaders as they work through the changes that lie ahead.

"In June they'll salute a civilian president for the first time ... and then they'll go back to barracks. But I don't think it's going to be as clean as that."

Contending with being subordinate to a civilian authority won't be easy, the chairman said, but today "they're all saying the right things, and I believe they all intend the right things."

The true test, he added, will be the remaining elections, the framing of the constitution and the June presidential elections.

"That's why we want to stay engaged with them ... not [to] shape or influence, but simply be there as a partner to help them understand their new responsibilities," Dempsey said.

"I think they eager to have that kind of partnership with us," he added, "but we have to get beyond this NGO issue."

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Live updates on Syria’s uprising

2012-02-13T23:19:00.001-08:00

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Live updates on Syria’s uprising

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -In Egypt, division rules

2012-02-13T23:19:00.000-08:00

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -In Egypt, division rules

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Support for Syria from “Hezbollah land”

2012-02-13T23:18:00.002-08:00

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Support for Syria from “Hezbollah land”

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Fear of invasion in Wadi Khaled

2012-02-13T23:18:00.001-08:00

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Fear of invasion in Wadi Khaled

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Homs, anvil of Syria

2012-02-13T23:18:00.000-08:00

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Homs, anvil of Syria

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Arabs agree on Syria opposition contacts, peace force

2012-02-13T23:17:00.000-08:00

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Arabs agree on Syria opposition contacts, peace force

China’s president-in-waiting heads to Washington for a visit crucial to both nations

2012-02-13T23:15:00.000-08:00

From The Washington Post:

China’s president-in-waiting heads to Washington for a visit crucial to both nations

View Photo Gallery — There have been ups and downs in the relationship between the United States and China.

By William Wan, Published: February 12 | Updated: Monday, February 13, 8:45 AM

The man who is expected to become China’s next president will arrive in Washington on Monday for a visit crucial to his political ascension and also to U.S. hopes for easing the mounting tensions between two of the world’s most powerful nations.

Xi Jinping is regarded as more self-confident and gregarious than President Hu Jintao, the famously stiff leader he is on track to succeed next year in a highly choreographed transition that includes, as a major step, this week’s visit.

Comments

Graphic

Where China invests: not much in U.S.

Gallery

A land of superlatives: From airport terminals to golf resorts, China is home to some record-breaking projects.

He is, for example, quick to mention his fondness for the American Midwest, having toured Iowa’s small towns in 1985 as a lowly provincial official, visiting farms and staying overnight in the cramped bedroom of a middle-class family, surrounded by their boys’ “Star Trek” figures.

In exclusive comments to the Washington Post, Xi said of that trip: “I was deeply impressed by America’s advanced technology and the hospitable and industrious American people. That visit drove home to me the importance of closer exchanges between our peoples and gave me a better understanding of China-U.S. relations.”

But it remains unclear whether Xi’s familiarity with U.S. culture will help lead to warmer relations between the countries after years of intensifying economic andmilitary rivalry. So far, he appears no less likely than previous Chinese leaders to resist demands for expanded human rights at home or to rail against Westerners for meddling in Chinese affairs.

This week’s visit, however, could indicate whether Xi’s ascension might result at least in a more candid and productive rapport, current and former U.S. officials say.

“Right now, I think there’s a lot of concern in the administration and Congress that we’re heading for a very rough five to 10 years,” said Michael Green, who was a White House adviser on Asia under President George W. Bush. “If there’s a sense in his meetings here . . . that he’s a guy we could do business with, that could help.”

There’s little doubt that the United States and China have entered a rough period, with tensions over China’s economic policiesand its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea, among other issues. For its part, Beijing has sounded increasingly alarmed by the Obama administration’s shift of military resources toward Asia.

None of those issues are likely to be resolved during Xi’s visit, which includes meetings at the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department. Rather, U.S. officials say, the visit is an opportunity to build a relationship and to get a better sense of how Xi operates.

The few U.S. and foreign diplomats who have met with him at length say the stylistic differences between Xi and his predecessors are striking.

“He is clearly more comfortable operating without a script,” said one former senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of diplomatic sensitivities. “With Chinese officials, you often encounter preordained formulas and points agreed to by the standing committee, and you expect them. He had a lot of confidence in his ability to make his points without the kind of preplanned script.”

That confidence, however, has a flip side. In the past, he has been equally quick to throw sharp barbs at the West.

“Some foreigners with full bellies and nothing better to do engage in finger-pointing at us,” he told a group of Chinese expatriates in Mexico in 2009. “First, China does not export revolution; second, it does not export famine and poverty; and third, it does not mess around with you. So what else is there to say?”

Graphic

Where China invests: not much in U.S.

Gallery

A land of superlatives: From airport terminals to golf resorts, China is home to some record-breaking projects.

But in recent days leading up to this week’s visit, Xi appeared to be sounding a more conciliatory note, telling the Post in a written statement, “The vast Pacific Ocean has ample space for China and the United States. We welcome a constructive role by the United States in promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the region. We also hope that the United States will fully respect and accommodate the major interests and legitimate concerns of Asia-Pacific countries.”

And responding to recent criticisms of Chinese economic policies, including strict control of its exchange rate, Xi also said, “China and the United States have become highly interdependent economically. Such economic relations would not enjoy sustained, rapid growth if they were not based on mutual benefit or if they failed to deliver great benefits to the United States.”

Xi ascended through the ruling Communist Party’s elite circles as a “princeling” — part of a new generation of Chinese leaders whose parents were high-level revolutionary party members. Today, such rhetoric in many ways appeals to a rising sense of Chinese nationalism.

That consciousness is likely to exert a consistent force during Xi’s U.S. visit, as he is expected to show his audience back home that he can represent his country with confidence and authority, said Robert Kuhn, an author, adviser and confidant to China’s senior leadership.

A trip to Iowa, for example, where Xi will reconnect with former hosts from his 1985 trip, is intended to show “he knows how to reach out to the American people and that he is a man of the people,” said Kuhn, who has discussed the trip with Xi’s aides. A later stop in Los Angeles is meant to highlight Xi’s business acumen, while a rumored appearance at a Lakers basketball game is designed to show he has personality.

Much of the visit intentionally mirrors the one made in 2002 by Hu, just before he assumed China’s presidency from Jiang Zemin.

The careful choreography in many ways shows how dramatically Chinese leadership has changed since the days of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Today, the country is ruled through consensus by nine members of the Communist Party’s all-powerful Standing Committee. The title of president is mostly a foreign construction for a role more aptly described as first among equals.

Xi’s rise to the top, however, was not preordained. When he was a teenager, he and his family suffered under some of China’s harshest policies. In an interview with The Washington Post in 1992, while Xi was a party secretary in Fuzhou, he described being locked up at age 15 for the alleged crimes of his father, Xi Zhongxun, who was purged and accused of disloyalty by Mao in 1962. Xi endured daily “struggle sessions” during which he was forced to denounce his father. He spent seven years laboring in the countryside.

Although he was later restored to power, the elder Xi fell from favor again for expressing sympathy with students protesting in Tiananmen Square in 1989, a little-mentioned fact in his son’s official biographies.

In a 2003 interview on the state-run CCTV, the younger Xi reflected on his turbulent youth, saying, “When the ideals of the Cultural Revolution could not be realized, it proved an illusion.”

Vice President Biden, who will act as Xi’s official host this week, said Xi has been similarly candid with him about China’s present and future.

“He genuinely is open about the nature and extent of their problems,” Biden told reporters after a visit to China in August, “what they’re going to have to deal with, short-term and long-term.”

Such problems, however, are likely to be put on the back burner for this week’s trip, during which the main focus for the Chinese will be burnishing Xi’s image.

Highlighting just how crucial the U.S. trip is to Xi’s slow-moving coronation over the next year, American organizers at each stop say their Chinese counterparts have been negotiating each detail with an insistence and thoroughness that borders on paranoia.

“The key thing is to not make any mistakes,” said Green, who helped the White House plan Hu’s trip to Washington a decade ago. “He just has to go through the ritual and survive it.”

Views from China’s vice president

2012-02-13T23:12:00.000-08:00

From The Washington Post:

Correction:

The introduction to a transcript published Monday of comments made by China's vice president, Xi Jinping, inaccurately described the nature of that material. The Post had submitted questions to the Chinese government, which did not respond to all of them and provided questions and answers of its own. The vice president's comments therefore were not direct answers to the original questions submitted by The Post, and The Post should have made that clear.

Views from China’s vice president

PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL/AFP/GETTY IMAGES - Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping during a visit to Bangkok in December.

Published: February 12

Vice President Xi Jinping of China is scheduled to meet with President Obama on Tuesday at the White House. In advance of his visit, the Chinese government invited The Washington Post to submit written questions to the vice president. Following is a transcript of his written answers, as translated and provided to The Post by the Chinese government.

Comments

Gallery

There have been ups and downs in the relationship between the United States and China.

Gallery

A land of superlatives: From airport terminals to golf resorts, China is home to some record-breaking projects.

ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS
SINCE 1972

Forty years ago, leaders of our two countries, with extraordinary wisdom and vision of statesmen, reopened the long-closed door to China-U.S. exchanges. Since then, China-U.S. relations have forged ahead despite some twists and turns and made historic achievements, bringing huge benefits to both countries and peoples. China-U.S. relations have become one of the most important, dynamic and promising bilateral relationships in today’s world. When I visited the United States for the first time in 1985, our bilateral trade was merely US$7.7 billion, and only some 10,000 mutual visits were made each year. Last year, our trade topped US$440 billion, and mutual visits exceeded 3 million.

What has happened over the past 40 years tells us that a sound and stable China-U.S. relationship is crucial for both countries and for peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large. During President Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States in January last year, the two presidents agreed to build a cooperative partnership based on mutual respect and mutual benefit. This decision fully captures the features and requirements of China-U.S. relations in the new era, that is, to develop mutually beneficial cooperation as partners based on the principle of mutual respect.

ON CHINA-U.S.
BUSINESS COOPERATION

Mutual benefit is the defining feature of China-U.S. business ties. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, China-U.S. trade has grown over 180 times. Over the past 10 years, U.S. exports to China have increased by 468 percent and created more than 3 million jobs for the United States. Forty-seven out of the 50 U.S. states have seen three-digit or even four-digit growth in their exports to China. And U.S. consumers have saved over US$600 billion by using Chinese products. A survey conducted by AmChamChina last year shows that 85 percent of the U.S.-invested enterprises in China saw their revenue grow in 2010, and 41 percent of them recorded higher profitability in China than their global average. The U.S. investment in China has boosted U.S. exports to China, accelerated U.S. industrial upgrading, and contributed to the growth of the U.S. economy.

As economic globalization gathers momentum, China and the United States have become highly interdependent economically. Such economic relations would not enjoy sustained, rapid growth if they were not based on mutual benefit or if they failed to deliver great benefits to the United States. The Americans who know the real picture of China-U.S. economic relations, including those in the business community, will echo this point.

Frictions and differences are hardly avoidable in our economic and trade interactions. What is important is that we properly handle these differences through coordination based on equality, mutual benefit, mutual understanding and mutual accommodation. We must not allow frictions and differences to undermine the larger interests of our business cooperation.

We have taken active steps to meet legitimate U.S. concerns over IPR [intellectual-property rights] protection and trade imbalance, and we will continue to do so. We will continue to press ahead with the reform of the RMB [renminbi] exchange rate formation mechanism and offer foreign investors a fair, rule-based and transparent investment environment. At the same time, we hope the United States will take substantive steps as soon as possible to ease restrictions on high-tech exports to China and provide a level playing field for Chinese enterprises to invest in the United States.

Gallery

There have been ups and downs in the relationship between the United States and China.

Gallery

A land of superlatives: From airport terminals to golf resorts, China is home to some record-breaking projects.

ON THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

China and the United States have more converging interests in the Asia-Pacific region than in anywhere else. In recent years, our two countries have coordinated closely under the framework of APEC [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] and ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] Regional Forum, and enhanced communication and cooperation on regional economic integration, counterterrorism, nonproliferation, combating transnational crimes, disaster preparedness and reduction, poverty alleviation and relevant regional hotspot issues, thus giving a strong boost to peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific.

What the Asia-Pacific countries care most is to maintain economic prosperity and build on the momentum of economic growth and regional cooperation. At a time when people long for peace, stability and development, to deliberately give prominence to the military security agenda, scale up military deployment and strengthen military alliances is not really what most countries in the region hope to see.

The vast Pacific Ocean has ample space for China and the United States. We welcome a constructive role by the United States in promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the region. We also hope that the United States will fully respect and accommodate the major interests and legitimate concerns of Asia-Pacific countries.

ON ECONOMIC

AND SECURITY COOPERATION

In recent years, China and the United States have conducted effective coordination and cooperation in addressing major international and regional issues and meeting global challenges. This has enriched China-U.S. relations and consolidated and expanded the strategic foundation of the relationship. China and the United States have joined hands and worked together with other countries to counter the international financial crisis and promote global economic recovery. We coordinated positions and worked for consensus at the climate change conferences in Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban. We advanced denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the Six-Party Talks process. We opposed the development and possession of nuclear weapons by any Middle East country in order to maintain regional peace and security. Our two countries have also had effective coordination in addressing such hotspot issues as Afghanistan, South Asia, Sudan and the Middle East.

We are at a time when the negative impact of the international financial crisis and the European debt crisis continues to spread, regional hotspot issues crop up from time to time and traditional and nontraditional security threats are intertwined. Under such new circumstances, it is all the more important for China and the United States to communicate, coordinate and cooperate more closely and work together to play a constructive and responsible role in upholding and advancing world peace, stability and development.

Gallery

There have been ups and downs in the relationship between the United States and China.

Gallery

A land of superlatives: From airport terminals to golf resorts, China is home to some record-breaking projects.

ON PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE EXCHANGES

Mutual understanding and friendship between the two peoples provides a solid foundation and an inexhaustible driving force for the growth of China-U.S. relations. I visited Iowa in 1985 when I was working in China’s Hebei province. I saw local corn farming and processing and stayed with a local family for a couple of days. I was deeply impressed by America’s advanced technology and the hospitable and industrious American people. That visit drove home to me the importance of closer exchanges between our peoples and gave me a better understanding of China-U.S. relations.

China and the United States are two great countries, and the Chinese and American people are well disposed to and interested in each other. We all want to exchange views and learn from each other, deepen friendship and seek common development. There is no reason for our two countries not to engage in friendly cooperation. I am convinced that, with the backing of the 1.6 billion Chinese and American people, our relationship will bring greater peace, prosperity and development to the world.

ON SPORTS

I like sports, and swimming is my favorite. Doing physical exercises keeps one fit and healthy and helps one work more efficiently. I think we all need to strike a balance between work and relaxation. This can keep us energetic and help us do our job better.

NBA games are exciting to watch and have global appeal. They are very popular in China. I do watch NBA games on television when I have time.

Apocalyptic Politics: On the Rationality of Iranian Policy

2012-02-13T23:07:00.001-08:00

From The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

Policy Focus #79

Apocalyptic Politics: On the Rationality of Iranian Policy

Mehdi Khalaji

Format: PDF, 50 Pages
Published: January 2008

Price: Free Download
File Size: 1 MB

The Iranian regime has given the West ample cause for worry about its intentions and general mindset in recent years. Over and above tensions stemming from terrorism, nuclear activity, and other issues, statements from Iranian leaders since President Ahmadinezhad's election have led many to conclude that the regime may be guided by an apocalyptic vision that would welcome chaos as a way to hasten the reappearance of the "Hidden Imam." Can the president and Supreme Leader be treated as rational actors on issues as fraught with peril as nuclear proliferation?In this Policy Focus -- the third entry in the Institute's "Agenda: Iran" series -- Qom-trained theologian and Iran expert Mehdi Khalaji examines the complexities of attitudes about the Hidden Imam, both in Shia tradition and among Iran's current leaders. He highlights the spread of superstitious religious practices, as well as the influence of anti-rationalist trends rooted in Mahshad, Iran's holiest city. He also explores whether religious factors have a strong influence on the regime's decisionmaking. Iran's leaders have displayed an often bewildering vacillation between "end of days" thinking and self-preservation -- understanding these seemingly contradictory tendencies is crucial to formulating more effective policies aimed at curbing Iran's ambitions in the nuclear arena and elsewhere.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mehdi Khalaji is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on the role of politics in contemporary Shiite clericalism in Iran and Iraq. From 1986 to 2000, he trained in the seminaries of Qom, the traditional center of Iran's clerical establishment. He has also served on the editorial boards of two prominent Iranian periodicals, worked for the BBC's Persian Service, and produced for Radio Farda, the Persian-language service of the U.S. government's Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Iran's Influence in Iraq: Countering Tehran's Whole-of-Government Approach

2012-02-13T23:06:00.001-08:00

From The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

Policy Focus #111

Iran's Influence in Iraq: Countering Tehran's Whole-of-Government Approach

Michael Eisenstadt, Michael Knights,
and Ahmed Ali

Format: PDF, 50 Pages
Published: April 2011

Price: Free Download
File Size: 1.5 MB

Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, Iran has tried to establish itself as the key external power broker in Iraq by exploiting ties with key parties, arming and training militias, and exerting economic, religious, and informational influence. Although these efforts have yielded mixed results thus far, the impending U.S. military withdrawal, the formation of a new Iraqi government that incorporates many of Tehran's closest allies, and the unrest fomented by the Arab Spring present Tehran with opportunities to extend its reach even further.In this Policy Focus, Iraq experts Michael Eisenstadt, Michael Knights, and Ahmed Ali assess the current extent of Iranian influence and the prospect of Tehran emerging as the eventual "winner" of the war in Iraq. Focusing on Iran's ties to Iraqi political parties and militias, along with soft-power factors such as trade and business relations, influence over Shiite clerical networks, and Arabic-language news programming, they lay out the practical details of Iran's activities on the ground, including an invaluable "who's who" of Tehran's most important Iraqi partners. If Washington hopes to counter these efforts, it must commit to a whole-of-government approach of its own, maintaining intensive engagement with Baghdad on the political, economic, and military fronts for years to come.

THE AUTHORS

Michael Eisenstadt is director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute. His recent publications includeIran's Islamic Revolution: Lessons for the Arab Spring of 2011? (INSS Strategic Forum, 2011), "Should I Stay or Should I Go? What the United States Can Leave Behind in Iraq" (Foreign Affairs, 2010), and The Missing Lever: Information Activities against Iran (Washington Institute, 2010).Michael Knights is a Lafer fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Yemen, and the Gulf Arab states. His recent Washington Institute publications include Kirkuk in Transition: Confidence Building in Northern Iraq (with Ahmed Ali, 2010). Dr. Knights earned his doctorate at the Department of War Studies, King's College London, with a dissertation on the U.S. no-fly zones and air operations against Iraq.
Ahmed Ali is a Marcia Robbins-Wilf research associate at the Institute, with a focus on the political dynamics of Iraq. In addition to Kirkuk in Transition, he is the coauthor, with David Pollock, of "Iran Gets Negative Reviews in Iraq, Even from Shiites" (PolicyWatch #1653). Mr. Ali is a frequent commentator on Iraqi affairs in U.S. and international media, and his work has been featured by various Iraqi, Arab, and Kurdish media outlets.

Nuclear Fatwa: Religion and Politics in Iran's Proliferation Strategy

2012-02-13T23:05:00.000-08:00

From The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

Policy Focus #115

Nuclear Fatwa: Religion and Politics in Iran's Proliferation Strategy

Michael Eisenstadt and Mehdi Khalaji

Format: PDF, 46 Pages
Published: September 2011

Price: Free Download
File Size: 559 KB

As the various threats posed by Iran's nuclear efforts become increasingly clear to the international community, most published assessments of the regime's strategy continue to overlook the role of religion. Because Iran is a theocracy, any attempt to fashion an effective policy toward its nuclear program must account for the religious values, beliefs, and doctrines that shape the country's decisionmaking. In this Washington Institute report, Michael Eisenstadt and Mehdi Khalaji scrutinize popular assumptions regarding Ayatollah Khamenei's longstanding fatwa banning nuclear weapons. Examining the process by which fatwas are issued and modified, they discuss the often contrary forces that could pull Tehran in unexpected directions as the nuclear program advances: the pragmatic doctrine of regime expediency, which often trumps religion, and the less-flexible doctrines of resistance and Shiite messianism that have been embraced by certain hardline factions.

THE AUTHORS

Michael Eisenstadt is director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute. A specialist in Persian Gulf and Arab-Israeli security affairs, he has published widely on irregular and conventional warfare and nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East. His recent publications include The Strategic Culture of the Islamic Republic of Iran: Operational and Policy Implications (Marine Corps University, 2011), Iran's Influence in Iraq: Countering Tehran's Whole-of-Government Approach (Washington Institute, 2011; with Michael Knights and Ahmed Ali), and The Missing Lever: Information Activities against Iran (Washington Institute, 2010).Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on the politics of Iran and Shiite groups in the Middle East. Prior to joining the Institute, he worked as a political analyst on Iranian affairs for BBC Persian and as a broadcaster for the Prague-based Radio Farda. A scholar of Islam, he trained in Shiite theology and jurisprudence at the seminaries of Qom for fourteen years and later studied at L'Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes in Paris. Author of The New Order of the Clerical Establishment in Iran (2010, in Farsi), he is currently working on a political biography of Ayatollah Khamenei.

SUPREME SUCCESSION: Who Will Lead Post-Khamenei Iran?

2012-02-13T23:03:00.001-08:00

From The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

SUPREME SUCCESSION:
Who Will Lead Post-Khamenei Iran?

Mehdi Khalaji

POLICY FOCUS #117 | February 2012

ALTHOUGH AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI has given no signs of imminent departure from the political scene, both the confrontational nature of his recent actions and the still-ticking Iranian nuclear clock raise important questions about what will happen upon his demise. Will the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subordinate the new Supreme Leader and focus on domestic issues, thereby cementing its status as the main player in Iran's political, military, and economic spheres? Or will the new government become even more radical than Khamenei's and carry on his bellicose foreign policy? Answering these questions requires a clear understanding of the Islamic Republic's current power structure, its past approach to leadership transition, and the closed-door nature of its most important political decision.

In this new Washington Institute Policy Focus, Iran expert Mehdi Khalaji shows how the succession question could present a unique opportunity for Washington to soften the regime's anti-American posture or, failing that, to ensure that the IRGC's ambitions do not jeopardize other regional states.

THE AUTHOR

Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on the politics of Iran and Shiite groups in the Middle East. A scholar of Islam who trained in the seminaries of Qom, he has also served on the editorial boards of two prominent Iranian periodicals and produced for the BBC and the U.S. government's Persian news service. Author of The New Order of the Clerical Establishment in Iran(2010, in Farsi), he is currently working on a political biography of Ayatollah Khamenei.

Emails Disclose Galloway's Syrian Support

2012-02-13T22:32:00.000-08:00

Emails Disclose Galloway's Syrian Support

CAN DICTATORS SURVIVE NEW MEDIA?

2012-02-13T22:31:00.000-08:00

From The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

OP-EDS AND ARTICLES FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY

******************************

CAN DICTATORS SURVIVE NEW MEDIA?

By Soner Cagaptay

CNN Global Public Square

February 10, 2012

To view this article on our website, go to:
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1818

******************************

Soner Cagaptay is a regularly featured commentator on CNN's Global Public Square and director of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program.

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The Arab uprisings suggest that recently developed "protest technology," from cell phone cameras to social media, are changing the way people behave under dictatorships and authoritarian regimes.

Prior to the rise of "protest technology," individuals had to endure under the tyranny of authoritarian regimes because there were few tools available to organize the masses without evading detection. Quite simply: the average citizen lacked the necessary instruments to outsmart their rulers. Autocratic regimes possessed the capabilities to swiftly crack down on dissidents before their ideas could evolve into a network of mass movement.

This allowed despots free rein to exercise their unchecked powers. Elections were frequently rigged and stolen, any opposition was suppressed, and massacres were committed against groups of people deemed enemies of the state. Whistleblowers who bore witness to these crimes lacked the technology to broadcast their stories to the rest of the world in hopes of humanitarian intervention.

Take Bosnia for instance. In 1995, the nationalist Serb militia and the Yugoslav National Army (JNA) started indiscriminately killing thousands of Bosniacs in Srebrenica, Bosnia on July 11. The outside world, however, only heard reports of a massacre being committed much later in the week, as the JNA and Serb militia were nearly done with their crimes, killing over 8,000 people.

The technologies of today, which we take for granted, such as camera phones, wireless connections, and social networks, allow crimes committed by governments to be reported as they take place, literally. This is akin to a social revolution: citizens of authoritarian regimes and their oppressors are now on more level footing, for the first time ever.

The Syrian uprising is a case in point. In 1982, when Bashar al-Assad's father killed tens of thousands of his own citizens in Hama, Syrians in other towns were clueless that such a massacre was taking place.

Today, all Syrians are witnessing al-Assad's brutality daily and are taking to the streets to protest. This is due to the Internet and new communication technologies, which provide a social and political space of mobilization -- a space that even al-Assad cannot control. New "protest technology," such as a simple cell phone, allows each demonstrator to become an empowered reporter, broadcasting videos, images, and narratives of al-Assad's crackdowns to people across the globe.

Al-Assad will fall because his oppression, broadcasted in real time on virtually every news media outlet, will draw the ire of the outside world, leading to intervention. More importantly, similar to the fate of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Syrians will topple their dictator thanks to the use of new technologies.

It will become increasingly difficult for dictators to carry out massacres and other crimes against humanity as well. Historically speaking, the stark power asymmetry between the oppressor and the victim has paved the way for massacres. Previously, victims found themselves entirely powerless to challenge their dehumanization and ensuing persecution by their oppressors or call for outside help. "Protest technologies" could alleviate part of this problem by empowering the persecuted. People targeted for massacre can now spread their call for outside help faster, making a stronger plea for humanitarian intervention.

In other words, there is no more "to-be-judged-in-posterity" immunity for al-Assad or other dictators, save perhaps North Korea, which forces its citizens to live in a pre-"protest technology" age (Pyongyang bans internet and cell phones except for use by the privileged few).

"Protest technology" will not only shed light on very public crimes such as massacres but also affect leaders who are accused of rigging elections. The Russian leader Vladimir Putin faced surprisingly large-scale unrest following the 2011 legislative elections. Common citizens made use of Internet, social media, and cell phones to document electoral fraud in real time -- a first in Russia.

Putin's next test is surviving the March presidential elections. Other leaders who rig elections -- not just Putin -- from the presidents of the Central Asian republics to Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, need to take notice: in the "protest technology" age, when each citizen plays the role of an elections monitor, massive electoral fraud is going to become increasingly difficult.

In 1517, when Martin Luther took advantage of the then newly available printing press to have his theses disseminated all over Europe, his use of this new technology forever changed the way Europeans view the world. "Protest technology" could be a similar, revolutionary step, shaping social behavior in authoritarian regimes.

Of course, the autocrats could quickly learn how to manipulate these new technologies, turning them at times into instruments of social control. Even then, however, the relationship between citizens of authoritarian regimes and their oppressors appears to have changed, and there is no going back.

******************************

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050
Washington, DC 20036
PHONE 202-452-0650
FAX 202-223-5364
www.washingtoninstitute.org
Copyright 2012. All rights reserved.

Is China ripe for a revolution? Those in the West who think so should beware of getting what they wish for

2012-02-13T22:23:00.000-08:00

From Today Online.com:
Via Terry

Is China ripe for a revolution?

Those in the West who think so should beware of getting what they wish for

by Stephen R Platt

04:45 AM Feb 13, 2012

One hundred years ago, on Feb 12, 1912, the six-year-old child emperor of the Qing Dynasty abdicated, ending more than 2,000 years of imperial rule in China. But this watershed moment for modern China will not be widely celebrated in the People's Republic.

The political climate in Beijing is tense as the ruling Communist Party prepares for a secretive transition to the next generation of leaders, with the untested Vice-President, Mr Xi Jinping, expected to become President. Reminders of past regime change and the end of dynasties are not welcome.

Of course, the current government has little to fear from the example of 1912. The Qing Dynasty, founded in 1644 by Manchu tribesmen who conquered China from the north, was brought down by a highly organised revolutionary movement with overseas arms and financing and a coherent governing ideology based on republican nationalism. The Communist Party today faces nothing like that.

What it does face, however, is enormous, inchoate rural unrest. The dark side of China's economic rise has been a shocking widening of the gulf between the prosperous coast and the poverty-stricken interior, a flourishing of corruption among local officials and, by such data as we can gather, widespread anger and discontent.

The government has acknowledged tens of thousands of yearly "mass incidents", which can range anywhere from a handful of elderly widows protesting against a corrupt real estate grab to communities in open revolt (like the southern village of Wukan) to murderous ethnic rioting, as occurred in the last few years among Tibetans and in western Xinjiang province and Inner Mongolia.

In that sense, it is instead the Taiping Rebellion, which nearly toppled the Qing Dynasty 50 years earlier, that bears the strongest warnings for the current government. The revolt, which claimed at least 20 million lives before it was quelled, making it the bloodiest civil war in history, suggests caution for those who hope for a popular uprising - a Chinese Spring - today.

SPONTANEOUS EXPLOSION

The Taiping Rebellion exploded out of southern China during the early 1850s in a period marked, as now, by economic dislocation, corruption and a moral vacuum. Rural poverty abounded; local officials were wildly corrupt; the Beijing government was so distant as to barely seem to exist.

The uprising was set off by bloody ethnic feuds between Cantonese-speaking Chinese and the minority Hakkas over land rights. Many Hakkas had joined a growing religious cult built around a visionary named Hong Xiuquan, who believed himself to be the younger brother of Jesus Christ. When local Qing officials took the side of the Chinese farmers, they provoked the Hakkas - and their religious sect - to take up arms and turn against the government.

What was so remarkable, and so troubling, about the Taiping Rebellion was that it spread with such swiftness and spontaneity. It did not depend on years of preliminary "revolutionary" groundwork (as did the revolution that toppled the monarchy in 1912 or the 1949 revolution that brought the communists to power).

And while Hong's religious followers formed its core, once the sect broke out of its imperial cordon and marched north, it swept up hundreds of thousands of other peasants along the way - multitudes who had their own separate miseries and grievances and saw nothing to lose by joining the revolt.

Out-of-work miners, poor farmers, criminal gangs and all manner of other malcontents folded into the larger army, which by 1853 numbered half a million recruits and conscripts. The Taiping captured the city of Nanjing that year, massacred its entire Manchu population and held the city as their capital and base for 11 years until the civil war ended.

SUPPRESSING DISSENT

Schoolchildren in China in the '50s and '60s were taught that the Taiping were the precursors of the Communist Party, with Hong as Mao's spiritual ancestor. That analogy has now fallen by the wayside, for China's government is no longer in any sense revolutionary.

So it makes sense that in recent years, the Taiping have often been depicted negatively, as perpetrators of superstition and sectarian violence and a threat to social order.

The Chinese general who suppressed them, Zeng Guofan, was for generations reviled as a traitor to his race for supporting the Manchus but has now been redeemed. Today, he is one of China's most popular historical figures, a model of steadfast Confucian loyalty and self-discipline. Conveniently for the state, his primary contribution to China's history was the merciless crushing of violent dissent.

Beijing has learned its lessons from the past. We see this in the swift and ruthless suppression of Falun Gong and other religious sects that resemble the Taiping before they became militarised. We can see it in the numbers of today's "mass incidents".

One estimate, 180,000 in 2010, sounds ominous indeed, but in fact the sheer number shows that the dissent is not organised and has not (yet) coalesced into something that can threaten the state.

The Chinese Communist Party would far rather be faced with tens or even hundreds of thousands of separate small-scale incidents than one unified and momentum-gathering insurgency. The greatest fear of the government is not that violent dissent should exist; the fear is that it should coalesce.

WEST'S SENSE OF SCHADENFREUDE

The rebellion holds lessons for the West, too. China's rulers in the 19th century were, as they are today, generally loathed abroad. The Manchus were seen as arrogant and venal despots who obstructed trade and hated foreigners. All romance was on the side of the Taiping rebels, who at the onset were heralded abroad as the liberators of the Chinese people.

As one American missionary in Shanghai put it at the time: "Americans are too firmly attached to the principles on which their government was founded and has flourished to refuse sympathy for a heroic people battling against foreign thraldom."

As Mr Xi prepares to visit the United States tomorrow, a similar sympathy shapes our view of China's current unrest. Just last weekend, Senator John McCain warned China's Vice-Foreign Minister that "the Arab Spring is coming to China".

The dominant tenor of Western press coverage is that the Communist Party is finally receiving its comeuppance - for its corruption, for its misrule in the countryside, for its indifference to human rights and democracy. And below the surface, usually unspoken, lurks a deeply felt sense of schadenfreude - a desire to see the Communist Party toppled from power by its own people.

But we should be careful about what we wish for.

For all of the West's contempt for China's government in the 19th century, when the Taiping Rebellion actually drove it to the brink of destruction, it was Britain that intervened to keep it in power.

Britain's economy depended so heavily on the China market at the time (especially after the loss of the US market to the American Civil War in 1861) that it simply could not bear the risk of what might come from a rebel victory. With American encouragement, the British supplied arms, gunships and military officers to the Manchu government and ultimately helped tip the balance of the war in its favour.

We may not be so far removed. Given the precarious state of our economy today, and America's nearly existential reliance on our trade with China in particular, one wonders: For all of our principled condemnation of China's government on political and human rights grounds, if it were actually faced with a revolution from within - even one led by a coalition calling for greater democracy - how likely is it that we, too, wouldn't, in the end, find ourselves hoping for that revolution to fail?

Stephen R Platt is an associate professor of history at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and the author of Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom: China, the West, and the Epic Story of the Taiping Civil War.

http://www.todayonline.com/Commentary/EDC120213-0000017/Is-China-ripe-for-a-revolution

MK Ahmed Tibi's Speech at Palestinian Authority Conference - Treason?

2012-02-13T22:02:00.001-08:00

From Middle East and Terrorism Blog:

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2012

MK Ahmed Tibi's Speech at Palestinian Authority Conference - Treason?

by Palestinian Media Watch

[SZ: Imagine what might happen in the U.S. if a congressman spoke publicly from within an enemy's domain, praising those who have carried out suicide attacks in New York, Los Angeles or Chicago. Imagine a senator expressing gratification for the murderous acts of 9/11 and admiration for those who executed them. Then think of the public uproar and immediate legal steps that might be taken toat least remove that person from his post. Now contrast that with Israel's tepid response to the outrageous speech of Ahmed Tibi (below).

We need to change this sick and distorted concept of "freedom of speech" that allows what might be defined as treason, while sometimes condemning sincere, patriotic criticism.]

Palestinian Media Watch

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgO_DBPzhwo

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

MEMRI: Syrian Opposition Cleric Al-'Ar'our Appeals to Israel for Help in Treating Wounded Syrians

2012-02-13T21:59:00.000-08:00

MEMRI: Syrian Opposition Cleric Al-'Ar'our Appeals to Israel for Help in Treating Wounded Syrians

Internet blackouts roll through Iran

2012-02-13T21:51:00.000-08:00

From Fierce Government:

Internet blackouts roll through Iran

February 13, 2012 — 9:20am ET | By Molly Bernhart Walker

TOOLS

TAGS
Stuxnet
Reza Taqipour Anvari
Google
Iran
Internet censorship

Internet blackouts have been reported across Iran, with an increase in censorship reported since Feb. 9, when Google services and many non-Iranian websites were blocked for users, according to the Iran Media Program, part of University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg school for communication.

The program reported Feb. 9 that "Iran has blocked all SSL protocol, and any websites using this protocol are not currently viewable inside Iran." Internet users inside Iran could still access non-Iranian websites, however, by using circumvention tools like VPNs or proxies.

Some analysts suspect the timing of the Internet crackdown is an effort to quell online organizing for potential protests to mark the anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, on Feb. 11.

In August, Iran's Minister of Communication and Information Technology, Reza Taqipour Anvari, said a national "clean Internet" was under development and would launch in early 2012. The Iranian Internet would be accompanied by a national search engine called "Ya Haq," which translates to "Oh Just One," reported Reporters without Borders.

Iranian officials said the closed Internet will improve the nation's cybersecurity posture. In 2010, the industrial computer systems that support Iran's nuclear program were attacked by the Stuxnet worm.

In June, the New York Times reported that the U.S. government was developing a "shadow Internet" to allow Internet connectivity and open access to the web for individuals in censored Internet environments.

For more:
- see the Iran Media Program blog post
- see the Reporters Without Borders article
- see the New York Times article

Read more: Internet blackouts roll through Iran - FierceGovernmentIT http://www.fiercegovernmentit.com/story/internet-blackouts-roll-through-iran/2012-02-13?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal#ixzz1mKgI2YtP
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Rebels have repelled a push by government tanks in key Syria town. – USATODAY.com

2012-02-13T21:46:00.002-08:00

Rebels have repelled a push by government tanks in key Syria town. – USATODAY.com

Clashes in Bahrain, king warns against disunity

2012-02-13T21:46:00.001-08:00

From Reuters:

Clashes in Bahrain, king warns against disunity

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Analysis & Opinion

U.S. Envoy to Meet with North Korean Negotiator

2012-02-13T21:44:00.001-08:00

From Defense News:

U.S. Envoy to Meet with North Korean Negotiator

Feb. 13, 2012 - 01:02PM |
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE | Comments

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WASHINGTON — A senior U.S. envoy will hold talks this month in Beijing with North Korea, resuming a dialogue put on hold last year by the death of leader Kim Jong-Il, the State Department said Feb. 13.

Glyn Davies, the coordinator for U.S. policy in North Korea, will meet in Beijing on Feb. 23 with North Korean negotiator Kim Kye-Gwan, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters.

The United States has been exploring a resumption of six-nation denuclearization talks with North Korea but has insisted that Pyongyang respect a 2005 agreement at the talks to give up its atomic weapons.

“This is a continuation of the meetings that we’ve been having with North Korea to see if it is prepared to fulfill its commitment (under six-way talks) and its international obligations as well as to take concrete steps towards denuclearization,” Nuland said.

The United States held two rounds of talks with North Korea last year in Beijing and Geneva in hopes of keeping open a dialogue, despite deep skepticism in Washington on whether the communist state will ever give up its weapons.

A third round was ready in Beijing in December but was called off after the sudden death of Kim, which left the isolated and nuclear-armed country in the hands of his untested young son Kim Jong-Un.

Before the planned last round, the United States had been discussing a request by North Korea to resume assistance in food. The country suffered a devastating famine in the 1990s and aid groups have voiced concern about new shortages.

MEMRI: Former Hizbullah Secretary-General Subhi Al-Tufeili: "The Worst Dictatorships Do Not Do What Is Being Done Today in Tehran"; The Rule of the Jurisprudent Is a "Heretical Doctrine"

2012-02-13T21:26:00.000-08:00

MEMRI: Former Hizbullah Secretary-General Subhi Al-Tufeili: "The Worst Dictatorships Do Not Do What Is Being Done Today in Tehran"; The Rule of the Jurisprudent Is a "Heretical Doctrine"

MEMRI: Top Bahraini Ayatollah Issa Qassem Accuses Regime of Affronting the Honor of Shiite Girls

2012-02-13T21:25:00.000-08:00

MEMRI: Top Bahraini Ayatollah Issa Qassem Accuses Regime of Affronting the Honor of Shiite Girls

The ‘Cairo 19? Got What They Deserve by Justin Raimondo

2012-02-13T21:19:00.000-08:00

The ‘Cairo 19? Got What They Deserve by Justin Raimondo

Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Leader Warns U.S. Over Future Of Peace Treaty

2012-02-13T21:17:00.001-08:00

From The Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report:

Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Leader Warns U.S. Over Future Of Peace Treaty

Daily Comments (0)

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood continues its cat and mouse game with the U.S. over the future of the peace treaty with Israel as global media is reports on comments by a Brotherhood leader in which he said that if aid from the U.S. is cut, the Brotherhood might change the terms of treaty. According to a Jerusalem Post report:

US aid to Egypt is guaranteed by the Camp David Accords, and stopping it would be a violation of that treaty, a high-ranking Muslim Brotherhood lawmaker said Sunday. Essam El-Erian, who also serves as chairman of the Egyptian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said that should aid from Washington be cut, the Brotherhood would consider changing the terms of Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel. El-Erian told the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat the US needs to understand that “what was acceptable before the revolution is no longer,” and that should the aid provisions outlined in the treaty be modified, it could open the door to further changes in t”

An earlier post discussed the conflicting statements by leaders of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood about the Egypt/Israel peace treaty while anther post discussed comments by the deputy head of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood who said that West has an “obligation” to support Egypt with financial and diplomatic support.

GlobalMB @ February 13, 2012

FIOE President Tours Hamas Gaza

2012-02-13T21:16:00.001-08:00

from The Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report:

FIOE President Tours Hamas Gaza

Daily Comments (0)

The Federation of Islamic Organizations in Europe (FIOE) has announced that its President Chakib Ben Makhlouf has visited the Gaza Strip on an extended tour where he visited Hamas facilities, praised Palestinian “martyrs, and visited the grave of Hamas spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yasine who was killed by Israel. According to the FIOE announcement:

Mr Chakib Ben Makhlouf the president of FIOE visited Gaza Strip in an extended tour where he inspected the conditions of Palestinians and their civil institutions after three years since the Israeli war on the strip. During his visit, the FIOE president expressed the commitment of the European Muslims to support the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights. He also confirmed that the European Continent people and civil society have an increasing understanding of the Palestinians’ legitimate demands of freedom, justice, independence and an end to this inhumane siege and occupation. The visit included the Palestinian Legislative Council (Parliament) and a meeting with the acting speaker of the Parliament, Dr Ahmed Bahr, in addition to some heads of parliamentary committees. Talks dealt with the way of developing the Palestinian-European relations and strengthening the relations between the elected parliamentary members and the European civil society. The FIOE president reviewed the general status of the Palestinian Legislative council which had been targeted by Israeli raids. He understood the obstacles that the parliamentary life faces in Palestine, on top of which is the arrest of Dr Aziz Dweik the speaker of the parliament and dozens of parliament members to hinder its meetings and proceedings. The meeting also handled the current situation of the Palestinian issue and Jerusalem under occupation. It also dealt with the issue of settlements and racial segregation wall condemned internationally. The Palestinian minister of social affairs Ahmed Al-Kurd received the FIOE president in his office and explained the social status of Palestinians in Gaza Strip, their limited employment opportunities and the general difficult situation they live in. Discussions reviewed the development projects in various sectors and the requirements to develop the social position in Palestine. Mr Chakib Ben Makhlouf inspected a number of refugee camps in Gaza Strip and discovered the difficult conditions of those refugees who represent the majority of Gaza Strip population. He noted that: ”I found a strong will and determination from the Palestinian refugees to confront the cruelty of reality and adhere to their right to return to their country and homes from which they were displaced in 1948. They affirm that this right is not compromisable.”
Read the rest here.

A report on FIOE by the NEFA Foundation describes the organization as follows:

The Federation of Islamic Organizations in Europe (FIOE) claims to be an independent organization representing the interests of Muslims in Europe. In reality, the FIOE is an umbrella group that comprises the global Muslim Brotherhood in Europe. Strong links connect FIOE’s leadership central institutions and member organizations to the Brotherhood, as well as to Saudi Arabia. Funding for the FIOE is derived largely from Gulf sources, including some of the ruling families of the United Arab Emirates. The FIOE has strong ties to Hamas and Hamas fund-raising organizations, and some FIOE member organizations show evidence of links with Al-Qaida. The FIOE recently opened a headquarters office in Brussels and has had some success in positioning itself as a “dialog partner” for the EU and other important institutions.

FIOE has taken umbrage in the past over being characterized as part of the Global Muslim Brotherhood with ties to Hamas but this latest visit by the FIOE President should, but probably won’t, put the matter to rest.

GlobalMB @ February 13, 2012

NERVOUS BAHRAIN MARKS ANNIVERSARY OF SHIITE PROTESTS

2012-02-13T21:08:00.001-08:00

From The Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

POLICYWATCH #1899
February 13, 2012
ANALYSIS OF NEAR EAST POLICY FROM THE SCHOLARS AND ASSOCIATES OF THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE

NERVOUS BAHRAIN MARKS ANNIVERSARY OF SHIITE PROTESTS

By Simon Henderson

To read this PolicyWatch on our website, go to:
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3450

******************************

Washington must find a way to encourage more political reform in Bahrain, which hosts the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet.

******************************

February 14 marks one year since Bahrainis began emulating the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions by launching protests of their own. The demands for greater political reform quickly divided the island along sectarian lines, sparking clashes between majority Shiites and the Sunni ruling family's security forces. This week is turning out to be a test of whether the government can stop Shiite activists from retaking the site of the Pearl Roundabout, and whether Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies might again send forces to bolster the suppression of protests. Also of concern is potential action by Iran, which once had a territorial claim to the island and is now viewed as a prospective ally by the Shiites and a malign force by the Sunnis.

BACKGROUND

The Bahraini government styles itself as a democracy because of reforms it carried out ten years ago creating a two-tier national assembly: an elected lower house of forty representatives and an upper house with members appointed by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa. But the drawing of electoral districts left the majority Shiite population underrepresented. Most power remained in the hands of the king and his cabinet, many of whose members were al-Khalifas, including Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman, the king's uncle who has held the job for more than forty years.

Last year's troubles exacerbated political resentment and what Shiites see as their low socioeconomic status, made worse by fast-tracked citizenship for Sunni immigrants. Under international pressure, King Hamad set up an independent inquiry to look into the causes of the unrest and propose reforms. The inquiry's findings, presented last November, were critical of the government, and although changes have been made in response, the political stance of the Shiite opposition has become more hardline. Al-Wifaq, the main opposition bloc, has insisted on further concessions, which the government -- responding, it says, to pressure from the Sunni community -- has refused. One of the opposition's main objectives has been to replace Prime Minister Khalifa with an elected official. And some elements resist any notion of engagement with the government and seem determined to provoke more violence.

DIFFERING VIEWS WITHIN THE ROYAL FAMILY

The Khalifas continue to exhibit a spectrum of political approaches to the unrest, as they did last year. The king's eldest son, Crown Prince Salman, is said to be among the more conciliatory but appears burned from the failed attempt to negotiate with the opposition last March. Meanwhile, the family hardliners -- of whom the prime minister is the perceived godfather -- reject any hint of compromise.

On February 12, U.S. Central Command head Gen. James Mattis met in Manama with Bahrain Defense Force commander-in-chief Field Marshall Khalifa bin Ahmed al-Khalifa. Reported as an opportunity to "review bilateral relations," the meeting was more likely an official U.S. warning to practice restraint against protestors. The day before the visit, a small group of armored vehicles had crossed the causeway from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain. Initially thought to be Saudi, they were identified as Bahraini forces returning from deployment, but the timing of the movement only added to the sense of impending crisis.

Thus far, King Hamad has vacillated between a soft and tough approach to the Shiite opposition's demands. At times he even gives the impression of being out of touch, as in today's interview with Der Spiegel in which he stated, "In a sense there is no 'opposition' in Bahrain, as the phrase implies one unified bloc with the same views...We only have people with different views, and that's okay." He also said that when demonstrators shout "Down with the King," they are only showing bad manners. And he defended the high number of royal family members in the cabinet, saying they received their posts because of merit. In addition to the prime minister and three of four deputy prime ministers, the Khalifas hold eight other portfolios, including finance, foreign affairs, interior, justice, and the royal court.

U.S. INTERESTS

The United States has had a long friendship with Bahrain, dating back to American missionaries living on the island and American companies discovering oil there. Bahraini society has traditionally welcomed expatriates, who make up half of the 1.2 million population and have helped convert the country into a financial services center (though this role has now been usurped by Dubai).

The local U.S. naval headquarters began as an anchored ship but is now a base manned by personnel controlling numerous key assets, including forces deployed to counter Iranian threats in the region and conduct antipiracy patrols off the Horn of Africa. Fifth Fleet vessels spend most of their time at sea, apart from making port calls in Bahrain and other Gulf states.

The island's strategic importance was emphasized yesterday, when Fifth Fleet commander Vice Admiral Mark Fox briefed journalists at his headquarters in Manama. He said that although Iran had built up its naval forces and prepared boats that could be used in suicide attacks, the U.S. Navy could prevent it from blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Responding to a question about whether his forces were prepared for such problems, he said, "We are very vigilant, we have built a wide range of options to give the president and we are ready...What if it happened tonight? We are ready today."

GOVERNMENT TACTICS

Some Bahraini officials are acutely aware of international criticism and have expressed frustration at not being able to engage more with the Shiite opposition. They acknowledge that Manama has recently opened quiet compromise talks with Wifaq -- which the government nearly banned last summer -- and note that the situation is changing for the better. Yet they also admit that it could be another six months before reforms and retraining of the security forces are completed. In the meantime, the government is allowing some demonstrations to take place while moving against those that are unauthorized or interfere with normal life. According to some officials, the majority of Bahrainis are criticizing the government for allowing any demonstrations.

Al-Wifaq itself has rejected violence, but this week will indicate the strength of those who are against all compromise. Shiite activists have declared themselves determined to retake the site of the Pearl Roundabout, the intersection where a monument depicting a pearl (a symbol of Bahrain's heritage as a pearl-diving center) was demolished last year after protestors briefly occupied it. The demonstrators seem bent on provoking a draconian response by security forces, some of whom are probably ready to oblige. More than thirty people died in last year's clashes, and the total has crept up during near-nightly skirmishes since then.

A large number of casualties this week -- whether among demonstrators or security forces, who are being subjected to volleys of gasoline bombs -- could lead to a complete collapse of reforms and any hope of political compromise. It could also prompt another intervention by Riyadh, which is concerned about a contagion effect among Saudi Shiites who live in the nearby oil-producing Eastern Province. (Last week, a Saudi Shiite died during a clash with Saudi security forces.) Others fear potential Iranian action: on February 3, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told his Friday prayer audience that the outcome of last year's protests would have been very different if Iran had intervened on behalf of Bahrain's Shiites.

WASHINGTON'S OPTIONS

During his visit to Manama last week, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Michael Posner urged the government to do more to heal the rifts left by last year's unrest. This week, however, the tension on the streets will likely dominate the agenda. Washington is concerned that violence will set back the clock and ruin official bilateral ties, especially if U.S.-supplied weapons are deployed. Moreover, efforts to curb Iran's regional influence and hamper its nuclear program would become awkward if Bahrainis began to question whether the Fifth Fleet should even be headquartered on the island. Bahraini officials, citizens, expatriates are jittery about what is in prospect. Indeed, the great danger is that the small advances and reforms of the past few months could count for nothing.

******************************

Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute.

******************************

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