Is Japan's Era Of Pacifism Over?

From The Marmot's Hole:

Is Japan’s era of pacifism over?


by robert neff on December 14, 2010



Is Japan’s era of pacifism over? That seems to be what the Guardian (December 14, 2010) is implying.



[Moves] by Japan to break the bonds of its postwar pacifist constitution and take a more proactive military role both regionally and internationally are certain to ring alarm bells in neighbouring states, including modern-day de facto allies such as South Korea, which have not forgotten or forgiven the past.



Japanese media reports suggest the review, which is expected this week and is the first update of the so-called “national defence programme guideline” for six years, will identify North Korea as a threat and categorise China’s military activities as a concern. The Nikkei business daily said it would call for creation of a “dynamic defence capability” specifically tasked with deterring Chinese incursions around Japan’s disputed southern islands, in part by mobilising units of Japan’s self-defence force more rapidly.



If the Democratic party prime minister, Naoto Kan, adopts the recommendations in full, Japan’s submarine fleet could grow from 16 to 22 boats, the air force would gain additional advanced fighter jets and self-defence force troops will be redeployed south from Hokkaido, given the reduced threat from Russia.



The Russia threat may have been reduced but there is still some hard feelings there (Asahi, December 14, 2010) over the disputed islands.



Choson Ilbo (December 14, 2010) gives further examples of Japan’s intended changes to its military



The ramifications are expected to be huge. Ground forces will be downsized while naval power will be enhanced. The 600 tanks in service will be reduced to 390; 600 artillery pieces will shrink to around 400; and 1,000 troops will also be cut. The remaining ground forces will be deployed on an island in southern Japan. At present, they are equally distributed throughout the country.



But capabilities will be bolstered to deal with potential threats from China and North Korea. Forces will be concentrated on defending Japan’s southwestern island chains stretching from southern tip of Kyushu Island to Taiwan, as well as the country’s Pacific flank. The number of operable submarines will rise from 18 to 22. The SDF will no longer retire one sub a year and replace it with a new one, but retain more subs as new ones are commissioned into service.



Around 2,000 troops will be deployed on the islands to the southwest. Japan will also speed up the deployment of its next-generation FX fighter jets and boost its three Patriot (PAC3) missile bases to six. It will equip all six of its Aegis destroyers with SM-3 missiles. At present, only four have the anti-ballistic missiles.



Despite the various headlines declaring Japan’s new “dynamic defense capability” emphasizes that China is a threat (Washington Post, December 13, 2010) , Japan is trying to reassure the Chinese that it is not aimed at them (Bloomberg, November 22, 2010). After all, who wants to provoke the giant that has quadrupled its military spending over the past decade – including building its own aircraft carrier (Asahi, August 19, 2010) in the near future (but not this one) and missiles to take out American aircraft carriers.



But what are the “alarm bells ringing in neighbouring states” caused by Japan’s actions?



The Choson Ilbo (December 13, 2010) reported:



Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan raised hackles in Korea on Saturday by saying Tokyo will consider dispatching troops there to rescue Japanese citizens in case of an emergency. Kan told reporters his government will consult on the matter with the South Korean government and revise Japanese laws to allow the country’s Self-Defense Force to engage in such rescue operations.



The daily Tokyo Shimbun reported on Sunday that the Japanese government already sounded out to the Korean government the possibility of dispatching SDF transport aircraft and vessels to Seoul, Incheon and Busan to rescue around 28,000 Japanese citizens residing in Korea.



Naturally this did cause some concern. But an official at the Korean Blue House had this to say (Korea Times, December 12, 2010):



“It appears that his comment didn’t have any serious implication,” he said, adding that the remarks may have been to appease the families of the abductees.



Even the Japanese backtracked as Arirang (December 14, 2010) reports:



Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshito Sengoku, said at a press conference on Monday that a dispatch of Japanese forces to the Korean peninsula is not likely….He explained that Prime Minister Kan probably meant to say that Japan needs to be prepared for future North Korean provocations.



What is surprising is that Japan is apparently not the only Asian country – at least if we judge by this editorial – that may send troops to Korea. In Manila Standard Today (December 11, 2010), Akejandro del Rosario writes:



Although not in the same league as the six stakeholders, the Philippines has a vital interest in the peace and stability of the region. The US, a staunch ally of South Korea, sent hundreds of thousands of American soldiers when North Korean troops crossed the 38th Parallel to invade the South in the early fifties.



The US has reaffirmed its commitment to defend the Republic of Korea should there be a reprise of the Korean War. It has made clear in no uncertain terms that it is ready to stand by its ally and expects other allies to do the same.



Bound by a military pact commitment , Manila sent troops under the aegis of the Philippine Expeditionary Force to Korea (PEFTOK) to fight alongside the Americans and South Koreans.



The Philippines did not have as much stake in the stability of South Korea when we joined the fray in the fifties . We do now. The Republic of Korea is one the Philippines’ biggest sources of foreign investments from the region aside from Japan and China.