From New Eastern Outlook:
08.02.2011
Stanislav Tarasov
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A New Caliphate Is Emerging in the Middle East
Only a few experts foresaw the events in Tunisia that resulted in President Ben Ali’s resignation. Therefore, the whole world was caught unawares by the current turmoil, which has spread to Egypt. US president Barack Obama had three different reactions over a three day period as he was trying to come to grips with the changes taking place in the Islamic world. Only one thing is clear right now—no matter how the standoff between Egypt’s ruling regime and the protesters turns out, the country will never be the same again. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry said in the New York Times that Mubarak is finished and it is time to move on. But what will Washington do if Egypt has a new government that includes the Muslim Brotherhood? It is a historic moment not just for Egypt, but for the entire Middle East.
Financial experts have also sounded the alarm. An important oil pipeline goes through Egypt. Anything that threatens to disrupt oil supplies or block the Suez Canal could cause oil prices to spike. There is a risk that Western countries trying as a worst-case scenario to stimulate their own economic growth by raising fuel prices could become destabilized. That could lead to economic stagnation, rising inflation due to a hike in prices of natural resources and chronically high unemployment. Another cause for concern is the likely spread of upheavals throughout the entire Middle East. “For decades it has been convenient to maintain relations with the Mubarak regime,” Deutsche Welle said about the situation. “Although the world was not enthusiastic about Cairo, it was stable. Mubarak could be relied upon. But now a new Middle East is emerging.” Almost all experts agree with that conclusion. But what will this new Middle East be like? Statements by Iranian political analysts and politicians about that are striking; they have their own forecasts of the future course of events. That is important, because Iran has made no secret about their hopes for the coming changes in the region. The Iranian political analyst Azzam Tamimi believes that after Tunisia and Egypt “the dictatorships in Jordan, Yemen, Algeria and Saudi Arabia will fall.” Speaking in the Majlis, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi warned that henceforth “one of Tehran’s most important priorities will be to strengthen ties with states in Asia and create a powerful bloc of Asian countries on the international stage.” And in an address to Muslims on the Tehran University campus, Ayatollah Khatami said, “The events unfolding in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen indicate that their roots and their character reside in religion, and nowhere else.” Iranian Ambassador to Syria Sayyed Ahmed Moussavi believes that the changes have one aspect. They have followed one of two scenarios: top down, as in Turkey; or bottom-up, as in Tunisia and Egypt. Therefore, the success or failure of American and Western policy as a whole in the Middle East depends on their ability to work with these two starting points. And they have already made some progress in that direction. For example, before Sheikh Rashid Ranushi returned to Tunisia from exile, he said that if fair parliamentary and presidential elections are held, the Islamists are willing to participate. He prefers comparing his party with Turkey’s ruling party, and not with radical Arab movements like the Muslim Brotherhood and other similar organizations.
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh also took preemptive action. He said that he did not intend to stay in office beyond his current term, which expires in the fall of 2013. But a lot of political water will run under the bridge in the region before then. Not everything is simple in Turkey either.
President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have discussed the tense situation in several countries in the region telephonically. Obama said the discussion of these issues with Turkey is especially important because Turkey is a country “with strong democratic traditions in the region.” At the same time, Turkish media reports there are growing differences between Prime Minister Erdoğan, who is fighting for a strong presidency, and President Abdullah Gül, who favors a parliamentary system. Therefore, the political battle between Erdoğan, who is “not Islamic enough,” and Gül, who is “oversaturated with revolutionary ideas,” could get worse; and the traditionally powerful military could take advantage of that. In the emerging situation, they could receive serious support in the West, something they had previously been denied.
But Israel finds itself in the most difficult position. The newspaper Haaretz reports that the Israeli military intelligence estimate for 2011 forecasts possible regime changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia but did not foresee the popular uprisings. Israel is in a difficult position from a strategic standpoint. It is without allies in the Middle East. Its strategic alliance with Turkey fell apart earlier. Therefore, the United States and Israel will be forced to seek other potential allies in the region, and that will be coupled with a wave of political and, possibly, military upheavals. At present, Tel Aviv can only count on Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, although relations with them are also fraught with problems. However, the main question is what new regimes will emerge in the Middle Eastern countries, and what will happen next in the region. It is possible that new leaders will emerge in the Arab world with a slogan like “tear down that wall” and establish a new Arab state. Then Turkey’s geopolitical importance for the West will increase. That is the first thing. The second thing is that it will be necessary to bring Iran out of isolation in order to neutralize the “new Islam” with Iranian cynicism. If the West succeeds in pulling that off, as one Israeli newspaper observed, “tons of explosive masses in the form of radical Islamic parties with their political infrastructures will meet in battle and ease their pressure on the West.” Or the reverse could happen: a new Islamic revolutionary wave could spread to the Maghreb countries also.
Incidentally, I was in Morocco when the events in Egypt unfolded. Dr. Mohamed Cheikh Biadillah, Speaker of the Upper House of Parliament and ruling party head, received me and an RIA Novosti correspondent in his office in Rabat. He denied that what happened in Tunisia and Egypt will be repeated in Morocco because its government had anticipated something of the sort happening in the region and has been modernizing and implementing democratic reforms in various areas of public and political life for quite some time. He said that although radical Islamists have not been defeated, their influence in the country has been considerably weakened. In general, radical Islamist groups in the Maghreb countries currently seem to be fragmented. The ruling elites in those countries have begun legalizing “moderate” Islamist groups, allowing them to participate in elections and putting their members into the cabinet of ministers and the corps of deputies. For example, Morocco and Algeria have done that. Biadillah believes that Egypt has been slow to move in that direction. However, President Ben Ali in Tunisia also once successfully fought the Al-Nahda (Awakening) Islamic Party and achieved significant progress in the country’s economic and social development. We all know how that ended. The only thing clear right now is that a complex social and political period is coming to a close in the Middle East. Changes are definitely on the way.
Original publication (in Russian): Regnum
Translation by NEO
08.02.2011
Stanislav Tarasov
Printer-friendly version Send to friend PDF version
A New Caliphate Is Emerging in the Middle East
Only a few experts foresaw the events in Tunisia that resulted in President Ben Ali’s resignation. Therefore, the whole world was caught unawares by the current turmoil, which has spread to Egypt. US president Barack Obama had three different reactions over a three day period as he was trying to come to grips with the changes taking place in the Islamic world. Only one thing is clear right now—no matter how the standoff between Egypt’s ruling regime and the protesters turns out, the country will never be the same again. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry said in the New York Times that Mubarak is finished and it is time to move on. But what will Washington do if Egypt has a new government that includes the Muslim Brotherhood? It is a historic moment not just for Egypt, but for the entire Middle East.
Financial experts have also sounded the alarm. An important oil pipeline goes through Egypt. Anything that threatens to disrupt oil supplies or block the Suez Canal could cause oil prices to spike. There is a risk that Western countries trying as a worst-case scenario to stimulate their own economic growth by raising fuel prices could become destabilized. That could lead to economic stagnation, rising inflation due to a hike in prices of natural resources and chronically high unemployment. Another cause for concern is the likely spread of upheavals throughout the entire Middle East. “For decades it has been convenient to maintain relations with the Mubarak regime,” Deutsche Welle said about the situation. “Although the world was not enthusiastic about Cairo, it was stable. Mubarak could be relied upon. But now a new Middle East is emerging.” Almost all experts agree with that conclusion. But what will this new Middle East be like? Statements by Iranian political analysts and politicians about that are striking; they have their own forecasts of the future course of events. That is important, because Iran has made no secret about their hopes for the coming changes in the region. The Iranian political analyst Azzam Tamimi believes that after Tunisia and Egypt “the dictatorships in Jordan, Yemen, Algeria and Saudi Arabia will fall.” Speaking in the Majlis, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi warned that henceforth “one of Tehran’s most important priorities will be to strengthen ties with states in Asia and create a powerful bloc of Asian countries on the international stage.” And in an address to Muslims on the Tehran University campus, Ayatollah Khatami said, “The events unfolding in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen indicate that their roots and their character reside in religion, and nowhere else.” Iranian Ambassador to Syria Sayyed Ahmed Moussavi believes that the changes have one aspect. They have followed one of two scenarios: top down, as in Turkey; or bottom-up, as in Tunisia and Egypt. Therefore, the success or failure of American and Western policy as a whole in the Middle East depends on their ability to work with these two starting points. And they have already made some progress in that direction. For example, before Sheikh Rashid Ranushi returned to Tunisia from exile, he said that if fair parliamentary and presidential elections are held, the Islamists are willing to participate. He prefers comparing his party with Turkey’s ruling party, and not with radical Arab movements like the Muslim Brotherhood and other similar organizations.
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh also took preemptive action. He said that he did not intend to stay in office beyond his current term, which expires in the fall of 2013. But a lot of political water will run under the bridge in the region before then. Not everything is simple in Turkey either.
President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have discussed the tense situation in several countries in the region telephonically. Obama said the discussion of these issues with Turkey is especially important because Turkey is a country “with strong democratic traditions in the region.” At the same time, Turkish media reports there are growing differences between Prime Minister Erdoğan, who is fighting for a strong presidency, and President Abdullah Gül, who favors a parliamentary system. Therefore, the political battle between Erdoğan, who is “not Islamic enough,” and Gül, who is “oversaturated with revolutionary ideas,” could get worse; and the traditionally powerful military could take advantage of that. In the emerging situation, they could receive serious support in the West, something they had previously been denied.
But Israel finds itself in the most difficult position. The newspaper Haaretz reports that the Israeli military intelligence estimate for 2011 forecasts possible regime changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia but did not foresee the popular uprisings. Israel is in a difficult position from a strategic standpoint. It is without allies in the Middle East. Its strategic alliance with Turkey fell apart earlier. Therefore, the United States and Israel will be forced to seek other potential allies in the region, and that will be coupled with a wave of political and, possibly, military upheavals. At present, Tel Aviv can only count on Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, although relations with them are also fraught with problems. However, the main question is what new regimes will emerge in the Middle Eastern countries, and what will happen next in the region. It is possible that new leaders will emerge in the Arab world with a slogan like “tear down that wall” and establish a new Arab state. Then Turkey’s geopolitical importance for the West will increase. That is the first thing. The second thing is that it will be necessary to bring Iran out of isolation in order to neutralize the “new Islam” with Iranian cynicism. If the West succeeds in pulling that off, as one Israeli newspaper observed, “tons of explosive masses in the form of radical Islamic parties with their political infrastructures will meet in battle and ease their pressure on the West.” Or the reverse could happen: a new Islamic revolutionary wave could spread to the Maghreb countries also.
Incidentally, I was in Morocco when the events in Egypt unfolded. Dr. Mohamed Cheikh Biadillah, Speaker of the Upper House of Parliament and ruling party head, received me and an RIA Novosti correspondent in his office in Rabat. He denied that what happened in Tunisia and Egypt will be repeated in Morocco because its government had anticipated something of the sort happening in the region and has been modernizing and implementing democratic reforms in various areas of public and political life for quite some time. He said that although radical Islamists have not been defeated, their influence in the country has been considerably weakened. In general, radical Islamist groups in the Maghreb countries currently seem to be fragmented. The ruling elites in those countries have begun legalizing “moderate” Islamist groups, allowing them to participate in elections and putting their members into the cabinet of ministers and the corps of deputies. For example, Morocco and Algeria have done that. Biadillah believes that Egypt has been slow to move in that direction. However, President Ben Ali in Tunisia also once successfully fought the Al-Nahda (Awakening) Islamic Party and achieved significant progress in the country’s economic and social development. We all know how that ended. The only thing clear right now is that a complex social and political period is coming to a close in the Middle East. Changes are definitely on the way.
Original publication (in Russian): Regnum
Translation by NEO
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