From The Hoover Institution and The Heritage Foundation:
Foreign Policy/International Affairs
China: Big Changes Coming Soon
by Henry S. Rowen
Hoover Institution
December 06, 2011
There is a high chance that China will experience political and/or economic change before 2020 and the order in which these two events occur could make a major difference. If substantial political liberalizing were to occur first, then a less-than-huge economic slowdown shouldn’t have a traumatic effect. But if economic change comes before political change, then a sharp economic slowdown might result in political liberalizing, or a conservative faction might succeed in tightening the screws, or there might be an extended period of political turbulence. One way or another, developments in China in the next decade have a high probability of deeply affecting the rest of the world.
URL: www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/100861
Foreign Policy/International Affairs
China: Big Changes Coming Soon
by Henry S. Rowen
Hoover Institution
December 06, 2011
There is a high chance that China will experience political and/or economic change before 2020 and the order in which these two events occur could make a major difference. If substantial political liberalizing were to occur first, then a less-than-huge economic slowdown shouldn’t have a traumatic effect. But if economic change comes before political change, then a sharp economic slowdown might result in political liberalizing, or a conservative faction might succeed in tightening the screws, or there might be an extended period of political turbulence. One way or another, developments in China in the next decade have a high probability of deeply affecting the rest of the world.
URL: www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/100861
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