From the AP:
Officials: NATO chopper kills 3 Pakistani troops
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By HUSSAIN AFZAL and DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writers Hussain Afzal And Deb Riechmann, Associated Press Writers – 3 mins ago
PARACHINAR, Pakistan – A NATO helicopter attacked a Pakistani security post near the Afghan border on Thursday, killing three troops, officials in Pakistan said. NATO said it was investigating the allegations and whether they were linked to an operation against insurgents in a nearby Afghan province.
The incident was likely to fray ties between Pakistan and US-led forces in Afghanistan at a crucial time in the nine-year war. Just last weekend, NATO choppers opened fire on targets across the border, killing several alleged insurgents inside Pakistan.
Islamabad protested the incidents, which have further stirred already pervasive anti-American sentiments among Pakistanis.
Shortly after the allegations emerged, two government officials told The Associated Press they were ordered to stop NATO supply trucks from crossing into Afghanistan at the Torkham border post, a major passageway for NATO materials. Earlier this week, Pakistan threatened to stop providing protection to NATO convoys if the military alliance's choppers attacked targets inside Pakistan again.
Pakistani officials differed on the exact location of the deadly airstrike, saying it took place either in Upper Kurram or Upper Orakzai. The remote, mountainous tribal regions neighbor one another, and the border is hard to distinguish.
The dead men were from a paramilitary force tasked with safeguarding the border, the Pakistani security officials said. Their bodies were taken to the region's largest town of Parachinar, one official said. Three troops also were wounded.
The Pakistani officials all spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation and because in some cases they were not authorized to release the information to the media.
Lt. Col. John Dorrian, a spokesman for intelligence and special operations at NATO headquarters in Kabul, said coalition forces observed early Thursday what they believed were insurgents firing mortars at a coalition base in Dand Wa Patan district of Paktia province in eastern Afghanistan.
"A coalition air weapons team called for fire support and engaged the insurgents," he said. "The air weapons team reported that it did not cross into Pakistani air space and believed the insurgents were located on the Afghan side of the border."
Dorrian said NATO was reviewing the reports to see if the operation in Paktia was related to Pakistan's reports its forces were hit by NATO aircraft.
In June 2008, a U.S. airstrike killed 11 Pakistani troops and frayed the two nations' ties. Pakistan said the soldiers died when U.S. aircraft bombed their border post in the Mohmand tribal region. U.S. officials said their coalition's aircraft dropped bombs during a clash with militants. They expressed regret over the incident, but said it was justified.
Pakistan and the U.S. have a complicated relationship, with distrust on both sides.
Polls show many Pakistanis regard the United States as an enemy, and conspiracy theories abound of U.S. troops wanting to attack Pakistan and take over its nuclear weapons. The Pakistani government has to balance its support for the U.S. war in Afghanistan with the support it needs from the population.
The U.S. and NATO need Pakistan's cooperation in part because they use its land routes to transport supplies to their troops inside landlocked Afghanistan. The Pakistani government officials said about 250 vehicles of NATO supplies cross into Afghanistan daily.
There were more than 100 NATO vehicles blocked at the checkpoint by Thursday morning, they said.
____
Riechmann reported from Kabul, Afghanistan. Associated Press writers Munir Ahmed in Islamabad and Riaz Khan in Peshawar contributed to this report.
(This version corrects name spelling in contributor's line)
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Moscow: Thousands Protest Planned Mosque
From Jihad Watch:
Moscow: Thousands protest against plan to build mosque
A leading Moscow imam, Ildar Ayautdinov, has threatened to have Muslims conduct prayers in Orthodox churches if they don't get more mosques in Moscow, and added: "There is a need to construct mosques, otherwise something bad will supersede spiritual development." Something bad, eh? I can't imagine what!
Meanwhile, will Moscow authorities allow a mosque to be built where a church was disallowed? Sounds familiar.
"Proposed Moscow Mosque Stirs Protests," by Natalya Krainova in the Moscow Times, September 27 (thanks to Twostellas):
A dispute has escalated over plans to build a mosque in Moscow's southeastern outskirts, with local residents vowing to send an appeal with about 2,000 signatures to President Dmitry Medvedev and nationalist groups promising to support them.
Muslim leaders defend the need for the worship site, saying the capital's four mosques are overflowing with people.
Residents of the Tekstilshchiki district in southeastern Moscow will send Medvedev a complaint signed by more than 1,800 people opposing construction of the mosque, mainly on the grounds that it might cause massive traffic jams in the area on Islamic holidays, activist Mikhail Butrimov told The Moscow Times on Friday. Butrimov leads the movement Moi Dvor, or My Yard, which supports residents in their fight against the mosque.
Butrimov said residents asked local authorities several years ago to build a Russian Orthodox chapel or create a park on the unused lot. But authorities banned construction on the plot, saying utilities ran underneath it, he said....
Posted by Robert on September 28, 2010 2:21 PM
Moscow: Thousands protest against plan to build mosque
A leading Moscow imam, Ildar Ayautdinov, has threatened to have Muslims conduct prayers in Orthodox churches if they don't get more mosques in Moscow, and added: "There is a need to construct mosques, otherwise something bad will supersede spiritual development." Something bad, eh? I can't imagine what!
Meanwhile, will Moscow authorities allow a mosque to be built where a church was disallowed? Sounds familiar.
"Proposed Moscow Mosque Stirs Protests," by Natalya Krainova in the Moscow Times, September 27 (thanks to Twostellas):
A dispute has escalated over plans to build a mosque in Moscow's southeastern outskirts, with local residents vowing to send an appeal with about 2,000 signatures to President Dmitry Medvedev and nationalist groups promising to support them.
Muslim leaders defend the need for the worship site, saying the capital's four mosques are overflowing with people.
Residents of the Tekstilshchiki district in southeastern Moscow will send Medvedev a complaint signed by more than 1,800 people opposing construction of the mosque, mainly on the grounds that it might cause massive traffic jams in the area on Islamic holidays, activist Mikhail Butrimov told The Moscow Times on Friday. Butrimov leads the movement Moi Dvor, or My Yard, which supports residents in their fight against the mosque.
Butrimov said residents asked local authorities several years ago to build a Russian Orthodox chapel or create a park on the unused lot. But authorities banned construction on the plot, saying utilities ran underneath it, he said....
Posted by Robert on September 28, 2010 2:21 PM
Chechen Government Forcing Islamic Dress Codes On Women
From Jihad Watch:
Chechnya forcing women to wear Islamic dress
It's bitterly ironic how often we're told that Muslim women in the West wear Islamic dress freely and proudly. Yet Islamic spokesmen in the West never seem to get around to addressing this kind of coercion.
An update on this story. "Chechnya Coerces Women on Dress, Activists Say," by Sophia Kishkovsky in the New York Times, September 27 (thanks to Larry):
MOSCOW -- Women in Chechnya are under pressure to adopt Islamic dress, according to human rights activists and an Islamic fundamentalist video circulating on the Internet in the latest example of deteriorating women's rights under Ramzan A. Kadyrov, the president of the restive southern Russian republic.
Activists in Chechnya, where Russia has waged two wars against separatists in the past 16 years, said intimidation reached a peak during the fasting month of Ramadan. There was also a crackdown on violations of Islamic law such as the sale of food before sundown and any sale of alcohol, they said.
The activists who spoke from Chechnya insisted on anonymity because they said they feared reprisals.
Threats tapered off, they said, as Ramadan ended in mid-September. Men in Islamic clothes had been approaching women whom they deemed unsuitably dressed to pull them by the arm, an offense according to Chechen custom.
A woman activist said that incidents she recorded in August included a woman being taken away by men in a jeep for wearing a skirt they regarded as see-through and no head scarf in Grozny, the Chechen capital. Other men handed out leaflets to women advising them how to dress, she said.
According to Chechen tradition, women should not wear sleeveless clothes; they usually wear a strip of headscarf more like a hairband than a hijab. Until recently, it was considered the prerogative of male family members to decide their style of dress, but Islamic activists, with support from Mr. Kadyrov, are calling for much fuller cover.
The run-up to Chechen Women's Day, a holiday decreed by Mr. Kadyrov to honor 46 Chechen women who drowned rather than succumb to Russian soldiers in 19th century wars, featured fawning praise in the Chechen media of women as wives and mothers and calls to observe Islamic morals.
Chechen television reported on September 16 about a march in Grozny of female students of an Islamic university in Islamic dress. The event, organized by a club called "Ramzan" and a government agency responsible for "spiritual and moral education," was dubbed "Beauty of the Chechen Woman."
"Every person must strive to beauty, and a young woman who puts on a hijab looks beautiful, as befits the dictates of the Almighty," Sado Meserbiyev, the chairman of "Ramzan," said.
The New York-based Human Rights Watch said in August that women's rights were being violated by efforts to impose an Islamic dress code. It said women without headscarves or in immodest dress had been attacked with paintball guns in Grozny. [...]
Yet attacks by insurgents who say they are true representatives of Islam continue, even as Mr. Kadyrov introduces measures that he says are meant to preserve peace and the purity of Islam....
Footage on the Internet shows women in dresses with short sleeves and no headscarves being sprayed with paint from passing cars. Mr. Kadyrov told Chechen television in July that he approved of such action.
"Even if it was done with my permission, I wouldn't be ashamed," he said. "It turns out that the girls who were sprayed with paint had been warned several times previously. After such an incident, a girl should just disappear from the face of the earth, lock herself in the house and not go out because she behaved so inappropriately that such a thing happened to her."...
It's all her fault, doncha know.
Posted by Robert on September 28, 2010 3:16 PM
Chechnya forcing women to wear Islamic dress
It's bitterly ironic how often we're told that Muslim women in the West wear Islamic dress freely and proudly. Yet Islamic spokesmen in the West never seem to get around to addressing this kind of coercion.
An update on this story. "Chechnya Coerces Women on Dress, Activists Say," by Sophia Kishkovsky in the New York Times, September 27 (thanks to Larry):
MOSCOW -- Women in Chechnya are under pressure to adopt Islamic dress, according to human rights activists and an Islamic fundamentalist video circulating on the Internet in the latest example of deteriorating women's rights under Ramzan A. Kadyrov, the president of the restive southern Russian republic.
Activists in Chechnya, where Russia has waged two wars against separatists in the past 16 years, said intimidation reached a peak during the fasting month of Ramadan. There was also a crackdown on violations of Islamic law such as the sale of food before sundown and any sale of alcohol, they said.
The activists who spoke from Chechnya insisted on anonymity because they said they feared reprisals.
Threats tapered off, they said, as Ramadan ended in mid-September. Men in Islamic clothes had been approaching women whom they deemed unsuitably dressed to pull them by the arm, an offense according to Chechen custom.
A woman activist said that incidents she recorded in August included a woman being taken away by men in a jeep for wearing a skirt they regarded as see-through and no head scarf in Grozny, the Chechen capital. Other men handed out leaflets to women advising them how to dress, she said.
According to Chechen tradition, women should not wear sleeveless clothes; they usually wear a strip of headscarf more like a hairband than a hijab. Until recently, it was considered the prerogative of male family members to decide their style of dress, but Islamic activists, with support from Mr. Kadyrov, are calling for much fuller cover.
The run-up to Chechen Women's Day, a holiday decreed by Mr. Kadyrov to honor 46 Chechen women who drowned rather than succumb to Russian soldiers in 19th century wars, featured fawning praise in the Chechen media of women as wives and mothers and calls to observe Islamic morals.
Chechen television reported on September 16 about a march in Grozny of female students of an Islamic university in Islamic dress. The event, organized by a club called "Ramzan" and a government agency responsible for "spiritual and moral education," was dubbed "Beauty of the Chechen Woman."
"Every person must strive to beauty, and a young woman who puts on a hijab looks beautiful, as befits the dictates of the Almighty," Sado Meserbiyev, the chairman of "Ramzan," said.
The New York-based Human Rights Watch said in August that women's rights were being violated by efforts to impose an Islamic dress code. It said women without headscarves or in immodest dress had been attacked with paintball guns in Grozny. [...]
Yet attacks by insurgents who say they are true representatives of Islam continue, even as Mr. Kadyrov introduces measures that he says are meant to preserve peace and the purity of Islam....
Footage on the Internet shows women in dresses with short sleeves and no headscarves being sprayed with paint from passing cars. Mr. Kadyrov told Chechen television in July that he approved of such action.
"Even if it was done with my permission, I wouldn't be ashamed," he said. "It turns out that the girls who were sprayed with paint had been warned several times previously. After such an incident, a girl should just disappear from the face of the earth, lock herself in the house and not go out because she behaved so inappropriately that such a thing happened to her."...
It's all her fault, doncha know.
Posted by Robert on September 28, 2010 3:16 PM
Germans Of Muslim Descent Recruited And Then Trained In Pakistan For Terror attacks
From Jihad Watch:
Latest jihadist threat tied to German Misunderstanders of Islam training in Pakistan
"Travelers with German passports do not require a visa to enter the United States."
More on this story. "'Credible But Not Specific' Threat of New Terrorist Attack," by Richard Esposito, Rhonda Schwartz, Matthew Cole and Anna Schecter for ABC News, September 28:
US and European officials said Tuesday they have detected a plot to carry out a major, coordinated series of new terror attacks in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and possibly the United States.
A senior US official said that while there is a "credible" threat, no specific time or place is known. President Obama has been briefed about the threat, say senior US officials.
Intelligence and law enforcement authorities in the US and Europe said the threat information is based on the interrogation of a suspected German terrorist allegedly captured on his way to Europe in late summer and now being held at Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan.
US law enforcement officials say they have been told the terrorists were planning a series of "Mumbai-style" commando raids on what were termed "economic or soft" targets in the countries.
In testimony before Congress last week, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said, "We are all seeing increased activity by a more diverse set of groups and a more diverse set of threats."
Bet there's a common thread.
The captured German reportedly said several teams of attackers, all with European passports, had been trained and dispatched from training camps in Waziristan and Pakistan. Officials say the German claimed the attack plan had been approved by Osama Bin Laden.
These attackers are in addition to the reported 90 or so combat-trained jihadists already reported to be in Germany last November.
US intelligence officials said they believed an attack on American soil was more likely to come from terrorists connected to the al Qaeda group in Yemen, known as AQAP, al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula.
In the last four years, dozens of German citizens have been recruited to train in al Qaeda-connected camps in Pakistan, according to US and German law enforcement officials.
"The American authorities are extremely nervous about what is going on, the Germans are extremely nervous about what's going on," said Guido Steinberg, a counter-terrorism analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"The advantage, of course, is the passport, because with the German passport it's a lot easier to travel," said Steinberg.
Travelers with German passports do not require a visa to enter the United States.
Steinberg said the Germans, many of Turkish and Uzbek descent, were recruited from mosques in Berlin, Bonn and Hamburg, including the same mosque in Hamburg where Mohammed Atta and other 9/11 hijackers gathered. German authorities shut down the Taiba mosque in Hamburg, previously known as the al Quds mosque, in August....Posted by Marisol on September 28, 2010 4:05 PM
Latest jihadist threat tied to German Misunderstanders of Islam training in Pakistan
"Travelers with German passports do not require a visa to enter the United States."
More on this story. "'Credible But Not Specific' Threat of New Terrorist Attack," by Richard Esposito, Rhonda Schwartz, Matthew Cole and Anna Schecter for ABC News, September 28:
US and European officials said Tuesday they have detected a plot to carry out a major, coordinated series of new terror attacks in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and possibly the United States.
A senior US official said that while there is a "credible" threat, no specific time or place is known. President Obama has been briefed about the threat, say senior US officials.
Intelligence and law enforcement authorities in the US and Europe said the threat information is based on the interrogation of a suspected German terrorist allegedly captured on his way to Europe in late summer and now being held at Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan.
US law enforcement officials say they have been told the terrorists were planning a series of "Mumbai-style" commando raids on what were termed "economic or soft" targets in the countries.
In testimony before Congress last week, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said, "We are all seeing increased activity by a more diverse set of groups and a more diverse set of threats."
Bet there's a common thread.
The captured German reportedly said several teams of attackers, all with European passports, had been trained and dispatched from training camps in Waziristan and Pakistan. Officials say the German claimed the attack plan had been approved by Osama Bin Laden.
These attackers are in addition to the reported 90 or so combat-trained jihadists already reported to be in Germany last November.
US intelligence officials said they believed an attack on American soil was more likely to come from terrorists connected to the al Qaeda group in Yemen, known as AQAP, al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula.
In the last four years, dozens of German citizens have been recruited to train in al Qaeda-connected camps in Pakistan, according to US and German law enforcement officials.
"The American authorities are extremely nervous about what is going on, the Germans are extremely nervous about what's going on," said Guido Steinberg, a counter-terrorism analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"The advantage, of course, is the passport, because with the German passport it's a lot easier to travel," said Steinberg.
Travelers with German passports do not require a visa to enter the United States.
Steinberg said the Germans, many of Turkish and Uzbek descent, were recruited from mosques in Berlin, Bonn and Hamburg, including the same mosque in Hamburg where Mohammed Atta and other 9/11 hijackers gathered. German authorities shut down the Taiba mosque in Hamburg, previously known as the al Quds mosque, in August....Posted by Marisol on September 28, 2010 4:05 PM
The End Of The "Strategic, Reciprocal" Relationship?
From Observing Japan:
(Hat Tip: Terry)
Friday, September 24, 2010
The end of the "strategic, reciprocal" relationship?
Since Abe Shinzō succeeded Koizumi Junichirō in 2006, the focus of Japan's China policy has been the promotion of what has been called in official documents as a "strategic, reciprocal relationship" between Japan and China. Acknowledging the importance of the bilateral relationship for peace and stability in East Asia, the two countries agreed to build a political relationship based on mutual trust, increase cultural and educational exchange, bolster economic cooperation, and collaborate to build an East Asian order founded on openness, transparency, and inclusiveness.
As the showdown between Japan and China over the fate of the Chinese fisherman now in Japanese custody intensifies, it is worth asking what the process of "unfreezing" the Sino-Japanese relationship since 2006 has accomplished, and whether that process will survive this dispute — or whether this standoff marks the beginning of a new, uncertain period in the relationship.
With each passing day it becomes clearer that the answer to the first question is "not much." The two countries' leaders have talked more frequently and exchanged state visits. Japanese leaders have avoided the deliberately provocative actions regarding wartime history that led to the deep freeze in the first place. Chinese leaders have at various times acknowledged and praised Japan for its peaceful development during the postwar period. But arguably no progress has been made to defuse the truly potent issues in the relationship, starting with the Senkakus.
This dispute was a hard test for the "new" Sino-Japanese relationship, as it concerns important symbolic issues — sovereignty over the Senkakus and the incarceration by Japan of a Chinese national, an "abduction" of sorts in Chinese eyes — and is therefore precisely the kind of issue that appeals to Chinese insecurity about its regional and international status, making unlikely to be resolved by Tokyo's appeals to handle the issue calmly and without resorting to nationalistic posturing. Of course the strategic, reciprocal relationship failed the test. China has steadily applied pressure on Japan, canceling cultural and political exchanges and possibly banning the export of rare earth elements (although for the record, the Japanese government has not confirmed whether there is in fact an export ban and the Chinese government has denied that there is any such ban).
As important as the resumption of normal relations between Tokyo and Beijing has been, it is worth asking whether the "strategic, reciprocal" relationship agenda will ever result in the kind of bilateral relationship rooted in trust that would limit the ability of this kind of issue from escalating into a more serious crisis. As long as anti-Japanese sentiment remains widespread, making a hard line towards Japan in disputes politically expedient, as China's policymaking process remains opaque, making it difficult to know how or why decisions are made, and as China remains acutely sensitive to insults to its national pride, it seems unlikely that the underlying dynamics of the political relationship will change. The economic relationship will undoubtedly remain important, but it is unlikely that economic interdependence will spill over into the political relationship — in either country. While Bruce Einhorn argues at Business Week that Japan "can't afford" a fight with China, Daniel Drezner suggests that attempts by China to use economic links to exert pressure on Japan could very well backfire and lead Tokyo to dig in its heels. Contrary to Einhorn's presumption, the impact of economic interdependence on Sino-Japanese political ties is arguably negligible. If anything the impact has been negative, leading China to believe that it has more leverage over Japan than it might otherwise have.
What about the Kan government's response to this dispute? Peter Ennis notes that there has been no sign of disagreement between Kan, Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku Yoshito, and the new Foreign Minister Maehara Seiji, all of whom have not responded to Chinese pressure by upping the rhetorical ante or responding in kind. This stance suggests that far from hearing the "wake-up call" that Dan Twining believes China is sending to Japan, the Kan government remains committed to the "strategic, reciprocal" program, persisting in the belief that forbearance by Japan will bear fruit over the long term if it leads China to learn to trust its neighbors.
In other words, in the aftermath of this dispute the Kan government will likely recommit to the pursuit of constructive cooperation with China, however unlikely it is that this approach will produce tangible results in the short run. The DPJ will be criticized by people like Abe for being "not understanding international politics," but it is unlikely that it will change course in foreign policy, and certainly not in the direction favored by hawks in Washington. When considering Japan's approach to China it is necessary to note that while the Japanese public wants their government to stand up for Japan in disputes with China, Japanese citizens are not clamoring for defense spending increases to match China's military modernization program or more assertive diplomacy to contain China's growing influence. As such, the Kan government's response to China's posturing may not be herald a "new realism" in the DPJ's foreign policy thinking but is instead perfectly consistent with its approach since taking power last year. (I've argued repeatedly that, Hatoyama's woolly-headed rhetoric notwithstanding, the DPJ has been remarkably realist in its diplomatic maneuverings since the beginning of its tenure.)
In doing so, the Kan government will be gambling that over the long term engagement will work. Given how little has been accomplished since 2006, it is an unappealing gamble — but the alternatives are worse. Economic interdependence may not make political cooperation inevitable, but it means that the Japanese government has an interest in talking with China regularly. The approach pursued by Japanese governments since 2006 essentially means keeping the Sino-Japanese relationship in a holding pattern, finding areas to cooperate while maintaining the status quo over issues like the East China Sea, perhaps in the hope that over time China will become more satisfied and less predisposed to forcing changes in the status quo. It may be a foolish gamble, but the alternative, the creation of a de facto Asian NATO, would be far worse, providing hardliners in Beijing with signs of encirclement and virtually guaranteeing that China will not limit itself to small maritime "provocations." It would be a fine example of what Bismarck said of preventive war, "committing suicide for fear of death."
Despite being an unsatisfactory option, the "strategic, reciprocal" relationship may well here to stay.
(Hat Tip: Terry)
Friday, September 24, 2010
The end of the "strategic, reciprocal" relationship?
Since Abe Shinzō succeeded Koizumi Junichirō in 2006, the focus of Japan's China policy has been the promotion of what has been called in official documents as a "strategic, reciprocal relationship" between Japan and China. Acknowledging the importance of the bilateral relationship for peace and stability in East Asia, the two countries agreed to build a political relationship based on mutual trust, increase cultural and educational exchange, bolster economic cooperation, and collaborate to build an East Asian order founded on openness, transparency, and inclusiveness.
As the showdown between Japan and China over the fate of the Chinese fisherman now in Japanese custody intensifies, it is worth asking what the process of "unfreezing" the Sino-Japanese relationship since 2006 has accomplished, and whether that process will survive this dispute — or whether this standoff marks the beginning of a new, uncertain period in the relationship.
With each passing day it becomes clearer that the answer to the first question is "not much." The two countries' leaders have talked more frequently and exchanged state visits. Japanese leaders have avoided the deliberately provocative actions regarding wartime history that led to the deep freeze in the first place. Chinese leaders have at various times acknowledged and praised Japan for its peaceful development during the postwar period. But arguably no progress has been made to defuse the truly potent issues in the relationship, starting with the Senkakus.
This dispute was a hard test for the "new" Sino-Japanese relationship, as it concerns important symbolic issues — sovereignty over the Senkakus and the incarceration by Japan of a Chinese national, an "abduction" of sorts in Chinese eyes — and is therefore precisely the kind of issue that appeals to Chinese insecurity about its regional and international status, making unlikely to be resolved by Tokyo's appeals to handle the issue calmly and without resorting to nationalistic posturing. Of course the strategic, reciprocal relationship failed the test. China has steadily applied pressure on Japan, canceling cultural and political exchanges and possibly banning the export of rare earth elements (although for the record, the Japanese government has not confirmed whether there is in fact an export ban and the Chinese government has denied that there is any such ban).
As important as the resumption of normal relations between Tokyo and Beijing has been, it is worth asking whether the "strategic, reciprocal" relationship agenda will ever result in the kind of bilateral relationship rooted in trust that would limit the ability of this kind of issue from escalating into a more serious crisis. As long as anti-Japanese sentiment remains widespread, making a hard line towards Japan in disputes politically expedient, as China's policymaking process remains opaque, making it difficult to know how or why decisions are made, and as China remains acutely sensitive to insults to its national pride, it seems unlikely that the underlying dynamics of the political relationship will change. The economic relationship will undoubtedly remain important, but it is unlikely that economic interdependence will spill over into the political relationship — in either country. While Bruce Einhorn argues at Business Week that Japan "can't afford" a fight with China, Daniel Drezner suggests that attempts by China to use economic links to exert pressure on Japan could very well backfire and lead Tokyo to dig in its heels. Contrary to Einhorn's presumption, the impact of economic interdependence on Sino-Japanese political ties is arguably negligible. If anything the impact has been negative, leading China to believe that it has more leverage over Japan than it might otherwise have.
What about the Kan government's response to this dispute? Peter Ennis notes that there has been no sign of disagreement between Kan, Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku Yoshito, and the new Foreign Minister Maehara Seiji, all of whom have not responded to Chinese pressure by upping the rhetorical ante or responding in kind. This stance suggests that far from hearing the "wake-up call" that Dan Twining believes China is sending to Japan, the Kan government remains committed to the "strategic, reciprocal" program, persisting in the belief that forbearance by Japan will bear fruit over the long term if it leads China to learn to trust its neighbors.
In other words, in the aftermath of this dispute the Kan government will likely recommit to the pursuit of constructive cooperation with China, however unlikely it is that this approach will produce tangible results in the short run. The DPJ will be criticized by people like Abe for being "not understanding international politics," but it is unlikely that it will change course in foreign policy, and certainly not in the direction favored by hawks in Washington. When considering Japan's approach to China it is necessary to note that while the Japanese public wants their government to stand up for Japan in disputes with China, Japanese citizens are not clamoring for defense spending increases to match China's military modernization program or more assertive diplomacy to contain China's growing influence. As such, the Kan government's response to China's posturing may not be herald a "new realism" in the DPJ's foreign policy thinking but is instead perfectly consistent with its approach since taking power last year. (I've argued repeatedly that, Hatoyama's woolly-headed rhetoric notwithstanding, the DPJ has been remarkably realist in its diplomatic maneuverings since the beginning of its tenure.)
In doing so, the Kan government will be gambling that over the long term engagement will work. Given how little has been accomplished since 2006, it is an unappealing gamble — but the alternatives are worse. Economic interdependence may not make political cooperation inevitable, but it means that the Japanese government has an interest in talking with China regularly. The approach pursued by Japanese governments since 2006 essentially means keeping the Sino-Japanese relationship in a holding pattern, finding areas to cooperate while maintaining the status quo over issues like the East China Sea, perhaps in the hope that over time China will become more satisfied and less predisposed to forcing changes in the status quo. It may be a foolish gamble, but the alternative, the creation of a de facto Asian NATO, would be far worse, providing hardliners in Beijing with signs of encirclement and virtually guaranteeing that China will not limit itself to small maritime "provocations." It would be a fine example of what Bismarck said of preventive war, "committing suicide for fear of death."
Despite being an unsatisfactory option, the "strategic, reciprocal" relationship may well here to stay.
MRFF Charges New Religious Freedom Problems At Air Force Academy
From Religion Clause and Alliance Defense Fund:
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
MRFF Charges New Religious Freedom Problems At Air Force Academy
The Military Religious Freedom Foundation announced yesterday that it has sent a letter (full text), co-signed by the heads of nine other groups, to the Secretary of Defense making three demands for changes to deal with the allegedly worsening situation involving Christian proselytizing at the Air Force Academy. The letter asks that the Air Force release its most recent Climate Survey of cadets and staff at the Air Force academy. The voluntary survey asks about the religious environment at the Academy. Second, the letter asks that the Defense Department begin an investigation of "Cadets for Christ" and other proselytizing organizations. Third, the letter demands that the Defense Department investigate the Air Force Academy's "incontrovertible and unconstitutional establishment of a fundamentalist Christian culture/ meme amongst its cadet and staff populations." The letter claims that there is an "underground" group of over 100 cadets at the Academy who are pretending to be fundamentalist Christians merely in order to remain in good standing with their peers and superiors. (See prior related posting.)
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Religious Tolerance Is Dramatically Improved At Air Force Academy
An AP report yesterday says that religious tolerance has dramatically improved at the U.S. Air Force Academy. After extensive complaints, and even a lawsuit, charging Christian proselytizing of cadets, Academy superintendent, Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Gould, says there has been a top down campaign to insure respect for beliefs of all cadets and a proactive attempt to accommodate all religions, as well as nonbelievers. A Cadet Interfaith Council meets regularly with chaplains to discuss issues. Even long-time critic Mikey Weinstein has praise for the new atmosphere at the Academy, saying that Gen Gould so far "has fixed everything." (See prior related posting.)
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
Official Task Force to Investigate AF Academy Discrimination Problems
On the heels of widespread complaints (prior posts 1, 2) of religious harassment of non-Christians at the U.S. Air Force Academy, officials have appointed a Task Force to investigate the matter. Yahoo News reports this morning that a preliminary assessment is to be issued by May 23. The Air Force's official announcement lists six specific aspects of the problem that the Task Force is to address. Last week, American United for Separation of Church and State sent military officials a lengthy report on its investigation of the situation
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
MRFF Charges New Religious Freedom Problems At Air Force Academy
The Military Religious Freedom Foundation announced yesterday that it has sent a letter (full text), co-signed by the heads of nine other groups, to the Secretary of Defense making three demands for changes to deal with the allegedly worsening situation involving Christian proselytizing at the Air Force Academy. The letter asks that the Air Force release its most recent Climate Survey of cadets and staff at the Air Force academy. The voluntary survey asks about the religious environment at the Academy. Second, the letter asks that the Defense Department begin an investigation of "Cadets for Christ" and other proselytizing organizations. Third, the letter demands that the Defense Department investigate the Air Force Academy's "incontrovertible and unconstitutional establishment of a fundamentalist Christian culture/ meme amongst its cadet and staff populations." The letter claims that there is an "underground" group of over 100 cadets at the Academy who are pretending to be fundamentalist Christians merely in order to remain in good standing with their peers and superiors. (See prior related posting.)
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Religious Tolerance Is Dramatically Improved At Air Force Academy
An AP report yesterday says that religious tolerance has dramatically improved at the U.S. Air Force Academy. After extensive complaints, and even a lawsuit, charging Christian proselytizing of cadets, Academy superintendent, Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Gould, says there has been a top down campaign to insure respect for beliefs of all cadets and a proactive attempt to accommodate all religions, as well as nonbelievers. A Cadet Interfaith Council meets regularly with chaplains to discuss issues. Even long-time critic Mikey Weinstein has praise for the new atmosphere at the Academy, saying that Gen Gould so far "has fixed everything." (See prior related posting.)
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
Official Task Force to Investigate AF Academy Discrimination Problems
On the heels of widespread complaints (prior posts 1, 2) of religious harassment of non-Christians at the U.S. Air Force Academy, officials have appointed a Task Force to investigate the matter. Yahoo News reports this morning that a preliminary assessment is to be issued by May 23. The Air Force's official announcement lists six specific aspects of the problem that the Task Force is to address. Last week, American United for Separation of Church and State sent military officials a lengthy report on its investigation of the situation
Europe Plots Show Al Queda Escalation To Assault-Style Tactics
From Newsmax:
Europe Plots Show al-Qaida 'Escalation' to Assault-Style Attacks
Wednesday, 29 Sep 2010 02:17 PM Article Font Size
By: David A. Patten
Intelligence experts warned Wednesday that the massive terror plot involving simultaneous assault-style attacks in London, Paris, and Germany represents a serious escalation in al-Qaida's war with the West, and poses a clear and present danger to the United States.
European counterterrorism officials are describing the plan of attack as being modeled on the November 2008 assault in Mumbai, India. In that attack, several teams fanned out across the city and used explosives and automatic weapons to kill over 170 people.
Der Spiegel is reporting a 36-year-old Hamburg man who was arrested in Kabul in July provided authorities with intelligence about a series of attacks planned for Germany and neighboring European countries. He stated several teams of attackers bearing European passports had received training in remote Waziristan and Pakistan.
The plot is believed related to heightened security around the Eiffel Tower, which has been closed to tourists twice in the past week.
"It's completely certain that at some point, something like that will happen here," Michael Scheuer, former CIA counterterrorism expert who headed the unit assigned to capture or kill Osama bin Laden. "It's not only because you have increasing numbers of young Muslim males who are U.S. citizens who want to act violently, but we have completely neutered our police forces because they have 12 million undocumented aliens that they have to worry about, and they don't know a thing about them.
"So it's a huge problem," Scheuer says, "and not an easy one by any means."
ForeignPolicy.com reported the plot disrupted Tuesday involved "simultaneous Mumbai-style attacks — with coordinated attackers taking hostages, using guns and grenades — on cities in the U.K., France, and Germany."
Author Steve Emerson, one of the nation's leading experts on terror, and the executive director of The Investigative Project on Terrorism, tells Newsmax that if al-Qaida is shown to be behind the series of attacks that were planned in Europe, "It would represent an escalation, as well as of course an expansion and diversification of their tactics, considering the success achieved in Mumbai."
Several sources say the plot to attack Europe recently shifted into an operational stage in Pakistan. The CIA has conducted a record number of drone strikes in Pakistan in the past month in an apparent bid to disrupt the attackers.
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano would not address specific threats but told Fox News Wednesday, "We are working constantly to make sure the American people are safe, and that includes plots against soft targets like hotels."
"We certainly have to be on the lookout for Mumbai-style attacks with bombs or assault rifles, at simultaneous institutions or commercial facilities in the United States," Emerson tells Newsmax. "That certainly could be pulled off."
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that U.S. counterterrorism officials are working urgently to determine if the European plots also involve an immediate threat to the United States.
"You have folks increasingly concerned about: Is it not just Europe that needs to be careful, but is there a threat here as well?" one U.S. counterterrorism official told the Journal.
Intelligence sources are saying it has been years since a plot on the scale of the European assault has been uncovered.
"This isn't just your typical Washington talk about how the threats have evolved," a counterterrorism official told the Journal. "People are very concerned about what they're seeing."
In some ways, experts say, the latest plot suggests terrorists learned from the relatively simple, brutally effective assault carried out in Mumbai.
Experts continue to believe al-Qaida's chief objective is to carry out an attack on American soil using weapons of mass destruction. But the apparent shift to simultaneous assaults with explosives and automatic weapons, presumably targeting "soft targets" such as hotels, tourist attractions, and mass transportation hubs, shows the organization is also interested in attacks that aren't as lethal, but can be much more difficult to detect.
Andrew McCarthy, the former assistant U.S. attorney who led the 1995 prosecution of "Blind Sheik" Omar Abdel-Rahman, points out the 9/11 attacks took over 18 months to carry out.
"An armed assault, while it's not likely to result in the same number of casualties, is easier in the United States to train for. There are lots of remote areas to train in. The training curve is not as high to get someone ready to carry out an attack like that," he says.
McCarthy also tells Newsmax: "Even if the attackers are not particularly competent, we saw in Fort Hood that one guy shooting a high-powered weapon in kind of a haphazard fashion can still kill a lot of people in a very short period of time."
Kent Clizbe, a former CIA counterterrorism operative, agrees with McCarthy that one reason terrorists may be shifting their tactics to armed assaults is that larger plots have proven too difficult.
"I think the only thing that's surprising is that they have not done it here yet," he says. "You look at the relative ease with which you can acquire firearms. You can buy a semi-automatic AK-47 pretty easily here."
Clizbe adds that it may be no coincidence the plot occurs as the Iraq war winds down. That conflict, he says, acted like "fly paper" to keep many violent extremists occupied in the Middle East.
"We have a supply and demand problem," Clizbe says. "You have supply building up and up, and they want to do an attack. So the further and further away we get in time from the Iraq war, the more supply of jihadis there is."
Mark Lowenthal, former CIA assistant director and president of Intelligence & Security Academy, a national security training and consulting firm, tells Newsmax that the nature of the thwarted European attacks may actually indicate progress in the war on terror.
"We're driving these guys to smaller, less coordinated, less catastrophic action," he says. "That doesn't mean it's over. But it shows we're making their lives more operationally difficult.
"It also means that the intelligence problem becomes more difficult. But clearly at this point the intelligence is working, or you wouldn't have all these warnings."
Fred Burton, the vice president of intelligence for the STRATFOR intelligence group in Austin, Texas, agrees wholeheartedly.
"It's our assessment that al-Qaida no longer poses a strategic threat to the United States," he tells Newsmax. "Now that doesn't mean that they still can't kill. But if you look at their target sets, and if you look at the series of attacks that we've had in the United States — such as the Little Rock National Guard shooter, Major Hasan at Fort Hood, the attempt to blow up the airplane on the inbound flight into Detroit — you've got very isolated lone-wolf operations that are clearly jihadi inspired. But you're not going to be able to carry out that kind of WMD attack on U.S. soil."
© Newsmax. All rights reserved.
Europe Plots Show al-Qaida 'Escalation' to Assault-Style Attacks
Wednesday, 29 Sep 2010 02:17 PM Article Font Size
By: David A. Patten
Intelligence experts warned Wednesday that the massive terror plot involving simultaneous assault-style attacks in London, Paris, and Germany represents a serious escalation in al-Qaida's war with the West, and poses a clear and present danger to the United States.
European counterterrorism officials are describing the plan of attack as being modeled on the November 2008 assault in Mumbai, India. In that attack, several teams fanned out across the city and used explosives and automatic weapons to kill over 170 people.
Der Spiegel is reporting a 36-year-old Hamburg man who was arrested in Kabul in July provided authorities with intelligence about a series of attacks planned for Germany and neighboring European countries. He stated several teams of attackers bearing European passports had received training in remote Waziristan and Pakistan.
The plot is believed related to heightened security around the Eiffel Tower, which has been closed to tourists twice in the past week.
"It's completely certain that at some point, something like that will happen here," Michael Scheuer, former CIA counterterrorism expert who headed the unit assigned to capture or kill Osama bin Laden. "It's not only because you have increasing numbers of young Muslim males who are U.S. citizens who want to act violently, but we have completely neutered our police forces because they have 12 million undocumented aliens that they have to worry about, and they don't know a thing about them.
"So it's a huge problem," Scheuer says, "and not an easy one by any means."
ForeignPolicy.com reported the plot disrupted Tuesday involved "simultaneous Mumbai-style attacks — with coordinated attackers taking hostages, using guns and grenades — on cities in the U.K., France, and Germany."
Author Steve Emerson, one of the nation's leading experts on terror, and the executive director of The Investigative Project on Terrorism, tells Newsmax that if al-Qaida is shown to be behind the series of attacks that were planned in Europe, "It would represent an escalation, as well as of course an expansion and diversification of their tactics, considering the success achieved in Mumbai."
Several sources say the plot to attack Europe recently shifted into an operational stage in Pakistan. The CIA has conducted a record number of drone strikes in Pakistan in the past month in an apparent bid to disrupt the attackers.
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano would not address specific threats but told Fox News Wednesday, "We are working constantly to make sure the American people are safe, and that includes plots against soft targets like hotels."
"We certainly have to be on the lookout for Mumbai-style attacks with bombs or assault rifles, at simultaneous institutions or commercial facilities in the United States," Emerson tells Newsmax. "That certainly could be pulled off."
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that U.S. counterterrorism officials are working urgently to determine if the European plots also involve an immediate threat to the United States.
"You have folks increasingly concerned about: Is it not just Europe that needs to be careful, but is there a threat here as well?" one U.S. counterterrorism official told the Journal.
Intelligence sources are saying it has been years since a plot on the scale of the European assault has been uncovered.
"This isn't just your typical Washington talk about how the threats have evolved," a counterterrorism official told the Journal. "People are very concerned about what they're seeing."
In some ways, experts say, the latest plot suggests terrorists learned from the relatively simple, brutally effective assault carried out in Mumbai.
Experts continue to believe al-Qaida's chief objective is to carry out an attack on American soil using weapons of mass destruction. But the apparent shift to simultaneous assaults with explosives and automatic weapons, presumably targeting "soft targets" such as hotels, tourist attractions, and mass transportation hubs, shows the organization is also interested in attacks that aren't as lethal, but can be much more difficult to detect.
Andrew McCarthy, the former assistant U.S. attorney who led the 1995 prosecution of "Blind Sheik" Omar Abdel-Rahman, points out the 9/11 attacks took over 18 months to carry out.
"An armed assault, while it's not likely to result in the same number of casualties, is easier in the United States to train for. There are lots of remote areas to train in. The training curve is not as high to get someone ready to carry out an attack like that," he says.
McCarthy also tells Newsmax: "Even if the attackers are not particularly competent, we saw in Fort Hood that one guy shooting a high-powered weapon in kind of a haphazard fashion can still kill a lot of people in a very short period of time."
Kent Clizbe, a former CIA counterterrorism operative, agrees with McCarthy that one reason terrorists may be shifting their tactics to armed assaults is that larger plots have proven too difficult.
"I think the only thing that's surprising is that they have not done it here yet," he says. "You look at the relative ease with which you can acquire firearms. You can buy a semi-automatic AK-47 pretty easily here."
Clizbe adds that it may be no coincidence the plot occurs as the Iraq war winds down. That conflict, he says, acted like "fly paper" to keep many violent extremists occupied in the Middle East.
"We have a supply and demand problem," Clizbe says. "You have supply building up and up, and they want to do an attack. So the further and further away we get in time from the Iraq war, the more supply of jihadis there is."
Mark Lowenthal, former CIA assistant director and president of Intelligence & Security Academy, a national security training and consulting firm, tells Newsmax that the nature of the thwarted European attacks may actually indicate progress in the war on terror.
"We're driving these guys to smaller, less coordinated, less catastrophic action," he says. "That doesn't mean it's over. But it shows we're making their lives more operationally difficult.
"It also means that the intelligence problem becomes more difficult. But clearly at this point the intelligence is working, or you wouldn't have all these warnings."
Fred Burton, the vice president of intelligence for the STRATFOR intelligence group in Austin, Texas, agrees wholeheartedly.
"It's our assessment that al-Qaida no longer poses a strategic threat to the United States," he tells Newsmax. "Now that doesn't mean that they still can't kill. But if you look at their target sets, and if you look at the series of attacks that we've had in the United States — such as the Little Rock National Guard shooter, Major Hasan at Fort Hood, the attempt to blow up the airplane on the inbound flight into Detroit — you've got very isolated lone-wolf operations that are clearly jihadi inspired. But you're not going to be able to carry out that kind of WMD attack on U.S. soil."
© Newsmax. All rights reserved.
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