From Middle East Affairs Information Center:
Pro-Democratic Protests in Middle East Easy Prey for Islamists
Posted on Fri, January 28, 2011 at 2:29 am, in Egypt, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamism, Israel, Lebanon, Muslim Brotherhood, Nederlands, The Middle East, Tunisia . Friday, January 28, 2011
Jerusalem Post
Edited by Crethi Pelethites
Egyptsiche activists burn a poster of Gamal Mubarak, son of President Hosni Mubarak, during a protest meeting in Cairo on September 21, 2010. The anti-government protesters against a possible succession of the presidency of Egypt by Gamal Mubarak. (AP Photo)
Pro-Democratic Protests in Middle East Easy Prey for Islamists
According to Israeli security experts pro-democracy protests could easily be taken over by Islamists.
I n an article published Friday in the Jerusalem Post Israeli experts point to the danger of a takeover of the protests by Islamists, who intentions other autocratic Arab governments want to overthrow the pro-democratic movements than originally envision. Instead of the dream of freedom follows the stricter Islamic laws that the whole society under the strict Islamic laws reforms. The same happened for example in Iran after the 1979 anti-Shah protests.
The Israeli experts see why mixed feelings about the social unrest in the Middle East. Yemen on Thursday joined the list of Arab states that have recently seen unprecedented protests against their authoritarian rulers and Egypt is bracing itself for further unrest.
Although experts in the short term no direct implications for national security of Israel predict, some see the mass protests as a dangerous step for Islamists who pro-democracy riots could easily be using for the overthrow of governments. But these governments also cooperate with the West and the U.S. (and secretly even with Israel) in countering radical Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda who either support terrorism or even a terrorist group considered his.
"We must understand that we live on a volcano," said Maj-Gen (Res.) Ya'acov Amidror, former head of the Research and Evaluation Directorate of the Israeli army.
"Conditions can change from day to day. We must ask ourselves what the worst scenario, "he said. "We are on thick ice, but even that eventually melt."
"We should not the advice, now from certain countries in Western Europe are, follow up," he said. [These opinions suggest that the riots could lead to a wave of democratic revolutions in the Middle East].
"There is no fear of any immediate escalation to our security. The key question is: will we be ready for the longer term all conceivable scenarios. "
Maj-Gen. (Res.) Giora Island, a former national security advisor and researcher at Tel Aviv University Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said: "There is a reasonable probability that the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power if there is a revolution taking place in Egypt . That would be bad not only for Israel but for all democracies [in the West]. "
And he added that "the real battle is between Mubarak and Egypt are not pro-democratic elements, but between Mubarak and the [Islamic] Muslim Brotherhood."
According to Giora Island, the recent confrontation in Lebanon between the pro-western 14 March movement dominated by Hezbollah and the March 8 movement is not as serious as the eye suggested.
"It is true that the two camps in a political confrontation that ended the dividing lines are put on edge. But there is [still] a clear interest for both parties to continue working together - not only to prevent a civil war, but to enjoy the best of both worlds, "he said.
"Until a national unity government [in Lebanon], the pro-Western camp, the West continue to demand economic and military aid, while pointing to democracy in Lebanon, a free economy and a functioning parliament. The role of Hezbollah to continue as the most powerful military force in Lebanon and to retain strategic control, "said Island.
He is also of the opinion that Israel is better off with a formal Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah, "because once they open fire on Israel, it is not [only] Hezbollah, but the entire Lebanese state that is responsible. That scares them away and has many benefits. "
"The same goes for Hamas in Gaza," said Island.
According to Shlomo Brom, director of the program for Israeli-Palestinian Relations at the INSS, it is impossible to know what might happen in the future.
"It is true that the protests are a manifestation of pro-democratic ideals - and that is positive - but we do not know how it will end," said Brom. Even in Tunisia, where the Islamists are weak, we do not know how it will end. We must remember that in Iran, at the end of the 70s, the uprising against the Shah was led by [pro-democracy] youths who took to the streets, but was eventually taken over by Islamists. "
What followed was a return of the exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to the highest Shiite doctrine stood for an Islamic revolution. By the time the democratic forces in Honolulu saw that their newly acquired freedoms had fallen prey to the strict Islamic laws of Shiism was too late.
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Pro-Democratic Protests in Middle East Easy Prey for Islamists
Posted on Fri, January 28, 2011 at 2:29 am, in Egypt, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamism, Israel, Lebanon, Muslim Brotherhood, Nederlands, The Middle East, Tunisia . Friday, January 28, 2011
Jerusalem Post
Edited by Crethi Pelethites
Egyptsiche activists burn a poster of Gamal Mubarak, son of President Hosni Mubarak, during a protest meeting in Cairo on September 21, 2010. The anti-government protesters against a possible succession of the presidency of Egypt by Gamal Mubarak. (AP Photo)
Pro-Democratic Protests in Middle East Easy Prey for Islamists
According to Israeli security experts pro-democracy protests could easily be taken over by Islamists.
I n an article published Friday in the Jerusalem Post Israeli experts point to the danger of a takeover of the protests by Islamists, who intentions other autocratic Arab governments want to overthrow the pro-democratic movements than originally envision. Instead of the dream of freedom follows the stricter Islamic laws that the whole society under the strict Islamic laws reforms. The same happened for example in Iran after the 1979 anti-Shah protests.
The Israeli experts see why mixed feelings about the social unrest in the Middle East. Yemen on Thursday joined the list of Arab states that have recently seen unprecedented protests against their authoritarian rulers and Egypt is bracing itself for further unrest.
Although experts in the short term no direct implications for national security of Israel predict, some see the mass protests as a dangerous step for Islamists who pro-democracy riots could easily be using for the overthrow of governments. But these governments also cooperate with the West and the U.S. (and secretly even with Israel) in countering radical Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda who either support terrorism or even a terrorist group considered his.
"We must understand that we live on a volcano," said Maj-Gen (Res.) Ya'acov Amidror, former head of the Research and Evaluation Directorate of the Israeli army.
"Conditions can change from day to day. We must ask ourselves what the worst scenario, "he said. "We are on thick ice, but even that eventually melt."
"We should not the advice, now from certain countries in Western Europe are, follow up," he said. [These opinions suggest that the riots could lead to a wave of democratic revolutions in the Middle East].
"There is no fear of any immediate escalation to our security. The key question is: will we be ready for the longer term all conceivable scenarios. "
Maj-Gen. (Res.) Giora Island, a former national security advisor and researcher at Tel Aviv University Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said: "There is a reasonable probability that the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power if there is a revolution taking place in Egypt . That would be bad not only for Israel but for all democracies [in the West]. "
And he added that "the real battle is between Mubarak and Egypt are not pro-democratic elements, but between Mubarak and the [Islamic] Muslim Brotherhood."
According to Giora Island, the recent confrontation in Lebanon between the pro-western 14 March movement dominated by Hezbollah and the March 8 movement is not as serious as the eye suggested.
"It is true that the two camps in a political confrontation that ended the dividing lines are put on edge. But there is [still] a clear interest for both parties to continue working together - not only to prevent a civil war, but to enjoy the best of both worlds, "he said.
"Until a national unity government [in Lebanon], the pro-Western camp, the West continue to demand economic and military aid, while pointing to democracy in Lebanon, a free economy and a functioning parliament. The role of Hezbollah to continue as the most powerful military force in Lebanon and to retain strategic control, "said Island.
He is also of the opinion that Israel is better off with a formal Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah, "because once they open fire on Israel, it is not [only] Hezbollah, but the entire Lebanese state that is responsible. That scares them away and has many benefits. "
"The same goes for Hamas in Gaza," said Island.
According to Shlomo Brom, director of the program for Israeli-Palestinian Relations at the INSS, it is impossible to know what might happen in the future.
"It is true that the protests are a manifestation of pro-democratic ideals - and that is positive - but we do not know how it will end," said Brom. Even in Tunisia, where the Islamists are weak, we do not know how it will end. We must remember that in Iran, at the end of the 70s, the uprising against the Shah was led by [pro-democracy] youths who took to the streets, but was eventually taken over by Islamists. "
What followed was a return of the exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to the highest Shiite doctrine stood for an Islamic revolution. By the time the democratic forces in Honolulu saw that their newly acquired freedoms had fallen prey to the strict Islamic laws of Shiism was too late.
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