From Homeland Security NewsWire:
Western analysts, Israel: Egyptian regime will weather the storm
Published 28 January 2011
Israeli and western analysts agree Egyptian regime will remain as popular uprising gains strength while government clamps down one protesters; little to no concern of Muslim Brotherhood takeover: government shuts down Internet access, cellular service, and other personal communications in an effort to contain the rebellion as turmoil spreads across Egypt; journalists under assault; former IAEA chief El-Barradai under house arrest; ruling party headquarters set ablaze
As the uprising in Egypt intensifies, the demonstrations have become a major test for the regime. The government has ordered the army deployed to support police efforts to contain the spreading violence, with somewhat mixed results.
Reports have surfaced of explosions and gunfire in Cairo, as crowds numbering in the thousands defied the curfew. The headquarters of president Hosni Mubarak’s ruling National Democratic Party was set ablaze, as several other fires from burning tires and police carsignited across Egypt.
As darkness fell, tanks took up positions across Egypt’s major population centers in an attempt to enforce a six p.m. to seven a.m. curfew with little effect.
“The armed forces started to deploy forces in the governorates of Cairo, Alexandria and Suez as a first stage in implementing the decree…” the official news agency reported.
So far, and with few exceptions, the Egyptian security forces, under orders from the president, have abstained from unleashing a wave of violence against the demonstrators — the kind of ruthless violence Egyptian regimes used in the past against opposition forces, and greatly restrained when compared to the responses of other regimes in the region. Though arrests have numbered in the above a thousand, there are only six reported deaths thus far, remarkable in a region where casualties of government crackdowns often counted in the thousands.
Prominent among the arrested was Mohammed El-Baradei, pro-democracy advocate and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who was placed under house arrest.
The protesters themselves appear to have exercised a curious restraint. Some of the most serious violence Friday was in Suez, where protesters seized weapons stored in a police station and asked the policemen inside to leave the building before they burned it down. They also set ablaze about 20 police trucks parked nearby. Demonstrators exchanged fire with policemen trying to stop them from storming another police station and one protester was killed in the gun battle.
The main methods employed to contain the violence were tear gas, water hoses, and arrests, with live shooting being used sporadically. Nevertheless, the protesters don’t agree with the assessment of apparent restraint.
p>”I can’t believe our own police, our own government would keep beating up on us like this,” said Cairo protester Ahmad Salah, 26. “I’ve been here for hours and gassed and keep going forward, and they keep gassing us, and I will keep going forward. This is a cowardly government and it has to fall. We’re going
to make sure of it.”
One reason for the regime’s relative restraint is the fact that the regime knows it no longer controls media coverage: it cannot stop citizens from filming police violence and distributing the clips online. This has not prevented the regime from making every effort to contain information flow.
Internet access has been cut off since Thursday, as has cellular service including text messaging and social media contacts, to prevent crowds from gathering. Reports have emerged of assaults on Al-Jazeera and BBC journalists, and CNN camera equipment being destroyed by police.
Israeli and European analysts, though, emphasize that Egypt, in contrast with Tunisia, has a lot of experience with demonstrations, strikes, and protests, and its official responses in the past have been modulated and took into account international reactions.
Moreover: Egypt has always seen itself — and has been seen by others — as the leader of the Arab Middle East. As leading Israeli analyst Zvi Bare’l notes, the Egyptian regime is well aware of the fact that in finding the appropriate response to the wave of demonstrations it is protecting not only itself — but that it bears responsibility for keeping the post-Tunisia momentum from spreading around the Middle East.
Whether as a result of an Internet-supported mood or the relative restraint of the Egyptian regime’s response, the demonstrations kept growing despite of an order Tuesday night to end the demonstrations. Still, Bare’l writes:
The Egyptian protest will not change the regime, but it might improve quality of life and push President Hosni Mubarak to be more serious about his campaign for the September elections. Egyptian experts believe Mubarak might announce plans to run for another term, thus eliminating the excuse some people used to protest: his intention to bequeath his seat to his son.
Coming back to the Israeli and European experts: There is no doubt that for decades now, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen, and other Muslim and Arab countries have been accumulating social, political, and economic explosives. It is thus understandable that people look at the Middle East and believe that a single spark could ignite a large-scale conflagration. This impression is deceptive, the experts say. Each country has a different relationship between the regime and the people, and each has its own “shock absorbers” — and, as a result, popular unrest has different outcomes in different countries.
Also noteworthy is the late arrival of the Muslim Brotherhood in the current turmoil.
The radical group had not taken a leading role in the uprising until now, and Israel is “not concerned” about a Brotherhood takeover of Egypt.
Western analysts see Egypt as a more secular than most of the rest of the region, and the roots of the current crisis as economic rather than religious.
Western analysts, Israel: Egyptian regime will weather the storm
Published 28 January 2011
Israeli and western analysts agree Egyptian regime will remain as popular uprising gains strength while government clamps down one protesters; little to no concern of Muslim Brotherhood takeover: government shuts down Internet access, cellular service, and other personal communications in an effort to contain the rebellion as turmoil spreads across Egypt; journalists under assault; former IAEA chief El-Barradai under house arrest; ruling party headquarters set ablaze
As the uprising in Egypt intensifies, the demonstrations have become a major test for the regime. The government has ordered the army deployed to support police efforts to contain the spreading violence, with somewhat mixed results.
Reports have surfaced of explosions and gunfire in Cairo, as crowds numbering in the thousands defied the curfew. The headquarters of president Hosni Mubarak’s ruling National Democratic Party was set ablaze, as several other fires from burning tires and police carsignited across Egypt.
As darkness fell, tanks took up positions across Egypt’s major population centers in an attempt to enforce a six p.m. to seven a.m. curfew with little effect.
“The armed forces started to deploy forces in the governorates of Cairo, Alexandria and Suez as a first stage in implementing the decree…” the official news agency reported.
So far, and with few exceptions, the Egyptian security forces, under orders from the president, have abstained from unleashing a wave of violence against the demonstrators — the kind of ruthless violence Egyptian regimes used in the past against opposition forces, and greatly restrained when compared to the responses of other regimes in the region. Though arrests have numbered in the above a thousand, there are only six reported deaths thus far, remarkable in a region where casualties of government crackdowns often counted in the thousands.
Prominent among the arrested was Mohammed El-Baradei, pro-democracy advocate and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who was placed under house arrest.
The protesters themselves appear to have exercised a curious restraint. Some of the most serious violence Friday was in Suez, where protesters seized weapons stored in a police station and asked the policemen inside to leave the building before they burned it down. They also set ablaze about 20 police trucks parked nearby. Demonstrators exchanged fire with policemen trying to stop them from storming another police station and one protester was killed in the gun battle.
The main methods employed to contain the violence were tear gas, water hoses, and arrests, with live shooting being used sporadically. Nevertheless, the protesters don’t agree with the assessment of apparent restraint.
p>”I can’t believe our own police, our own government would keep beating up on us like this,” said Cairo protester Ahmad Salah, 26. “I’ve been here for hours and gassed and keep going forward, and they keep gassing us, and I will keep going forward. This is a cowardly government and it has to fall. We’re going
to make sure of it.”
One reason for the regime’s relative restraint is the fact that the regime knows it no longer controls media coverage: it cannot stop citizens from filming police violence and distributing the clips online. This has not prevented the regime from making every effort to contain information flow.
Internet access has been cut off since Thursday, as has cellular service including text messaging and social media contacts, to prevent crowds from gathering. Reports have emerged of assaults on Al-Jazeera and BBC journalists, and CNN camera equipment being destroyed by police.
Israeli and European analysts, though, emphasize that Egypt, in contrast with Tunisia, has a lot of experience with demonstrations, strikes, and protests, and its official responses in the past have been modulated and took into account international reactions.
Moreover: Egypt has always seen itself — and has been seen by others — as the leader of the Arab Middle East. As leading Israeli analyst Zvi Bare’l notes, the Egyptian regime is well aware of the fact that in finding the appropriate response to the wave of demonstrations it is protecting not only itself — but that it bears responsibility for keeping the post-Tunisia momentum from spreading around the Middle East.
Whether as a result of an Internet-supported mood or the relative restraint of the Egyptian regime’s response, the demonstrations kept growing despite of an order Tuesday night to end the demonstrations. Still, Bare’l writes:
The Egyptian protest will not change the regime, but it might improve quality of life and push President Hosni Mubarak to be more serious about his campaign for the September elections. Egyptian experts believe Mubarak might announce plans to run for another term, thus eliminating the excuse some people used to protest: his intention to bequeath his seat to his son.
Coming back to the Israeli and European experts: There is no doubt that for decades now, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen, and other Muslim and Arab countries have been accumulating social, political, and economic explosives. It is thus understandable that people look at the Middle East and believe that a single spark could ignite a large-scale conflagration. This impression is deceptive, the experts say. Each country has a different relationship between the regime and the people, and each has its own “shock absorbers” — and, as a result, popular unrest has different outcomes in different countries.
Also noteworthy is the late arrival of the Muslim Brotherhood in the current turmoil.
The radical group had not taken a leading role in the uprising until now, and Israel is “not concerned” about a Brotherhood takeover of Egypt.
Western analysts see Egypt as a more secular than most of the rest of the region, and the roots of the current crisis as economic rather than religious.
No comments:
Post a Comment