From FPRI:
~MIDDLE EAST MEDIA MONITOR~
JORDAN'S QUANDARY OVER SYRIA
by Tally Helfont
In recent weeks, a contentious debate has arisen in Jordan
over what should be done about the country's troublesome
northern neighbor, Syria. Though the Jordanians, like many
others in the region, were mostly preoccupied with their own
internal troubles over the past eight months, there has been
a palpable change in the discourse on Syria in the kingdom.
Indeed, the recent slew of activities by the Arab League has
brought the Syrian troubles to the fore. However, it was two
other major events that sparked the intensification of this
debate in Jordan-namely, King Abdullah II's recent BBC
interview in which he conceded that Bashar al-Assad had lost
the legitimacy to rule and the subsequent attack on the
Jordanian embassy in Damascus by pro-Assad, Syrian
protesters.
The region specifically, and the international community
more generally, have over time come to expect very little
from the Arab League. However, during the past few weeks the
league of 22 Arab members has produced a flurry of activity.
To some, these activities are merely surprising and, to
others, worthy of serious scrutiny. On November 2, 2011, the
Arab League put forth "the Arab [Peace] Initiative"-a
indigenous plan to end the violence in Syria that would
prevent further loss of life, and more importantly to some,
prevent the "internationalization of the conflict."[1]
Though Syria initially agreed to terms of the Initiative,
which called for, inter alia, a cessation of violence,
withdrawal of troops from the cities, release of detainees,
and acceptance of an Arab League observation mission to
oversee the implementation of the plan, it quickly became
clear that Assad's regime had no intention of truly
complying.[2] In response to the more than 3,500 protestors
killed and the procrastination by Syria's leadership, the
Arab League announced on November 12 that it would suspend
the Syrian delegation from Arab League meetings until its
full implementation of the commitments that were agreed upon
under the Arab Initiative.[3] Jordan was among the countries
that voted in support of Syria's suspension.
On November 14, Abdullah sat down with the BBC's Lyse Doucet
for a one-on-one interview about the tenuous situation
unfolding in the region.[4] The conversation, however,
focused primarily on one topic: whether Abdullah thought
that it was time for Assad to go. Ms. Doucet posed the
question to the Jordanian monarch numerous times and in
different ways. The take-away from the sum of the king's
responses was that, in his estimation, "we deceive ourselves
if we think that things will change dramatically if the
individual is gone _ the problem is deeper than that and it
is the system, the political system that is set up in
Syria." The king attempted to provide a nuanced response to
the internal Syrian situation by saying that the Assad he
knew "has reform in his blood," that "the [Syrian] system
does not allow for reform," and that Assad wasn't the only
one responsible for the events on the ground since "both his
brother and brother-in-law are very active on the military
side." Nevertheless, Abdullah still conceded that "the
decision taken overwhelmingly by the Arab League shows that
we are extremely concerned about the future of Syria and the
way the leadership is moving." In the end, Doucet's
persistence was rewarded and she obtained her much sought-
after sound bite. "He is now the first Arab leader to openly
say President Bashar al-Assad should step down" said the
article, though the statement was qualified with an
additional assertion about the importance of making "sure
whoever comes behind. . . has the ability to change the
status quo."[5]
No matter how diplomatic Abdullah thought he was being, the
ill-fated sound bite made its way to the streets of the
Syrian capital. The very next day, over a hundred protestors
amassed outside the gates of the Jordanian embassy in
Damascus, bearing Syrian flags as well as flags of the
Lebanese Shi'i militant group, Hezbollah. Protestors
vehemently denounced Jordan's support for regional efforts
to pressure the Syrian government, chanting anti-Jordanian
slogans and throwing eggs at the compound. What's more,
according to, al-Sabil-a Jordanian political daily
affiliated with the Islamic Action Front[6]-the Jordanian
ambassador reported that the embassy's flag had been torn
down and replaced with Hezbollah's flag. A spokesman for the
Jordanian Foreign Ministry, Mohammed al-Kayed, quickly
refuted the latter portion of the claim and added that none
of the embassy staff was injured in the incident.[7]
Jordan's embassy was not the only one to be targeted. The
embassies of Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar
were also attacked for their complicity in supporting the
Arab League's initiatives vis-…-vis Syria.
Though the Syrians issued an apology the next day, the
damage had been done. Calls to remove the Jordanian
ambassador from Syria and kick out the Syrian ambassador in
Jordan were widespread. The secretary general of the Islamic
Action Front, Hamza Mansour, penned a letter to Jordan's new
Prime Minister, Awn Khasawneh, requesting the withdrawal of
the Jordanian Ambassador, and more importantly, the
recognition of the Syrian National Council as the legitimate
representative of the Syrian people.[8] Likewise, hundreds
of Jordanians tried to storm the Syrian Embassy in Amman in
retaliation for to the attack on their own embassy in
Damascus, though they were prevented from doing any damage
by a formidable contingent of the kingdom's Gendarmerie. The
assembled protestors called for the Syrian president to step
down and for the expulsion of the Syrian ambassador from
Amman.[9] The Jordanian leadership has thus far held back
from both measures and has made it clear that it intends to
operate within the consensus of the Arab League.
However, not everyone in Jordan agrees that the kingdom
should penalize its northern neighbor. The prospect of the
Arab League initiating economic sanctions against the Syrian
Arab Republic has some Jordanians up in arms.
Representatives of key economic sectors predict that such
measures will have a strongly negative impact on Jordan's
economy. In a recent Jordan Times article-a government owned
daily-economist Jawad Anani, who has also served as chief of
the Royal Court and held several ministerial posts,
explained that implementing sanctions against Syria "will
cause large losses to the Kingdom in terms of trade,
transport and investments."[10] In a follow-up article in
the Times, Nael Kabariti, president of the Jordan Chamber of
Commerce, was quoted as saying, "Syria is not only a
strategic market for the Kingdom, but also a gateway to the
Turkish, Lebanese and European markets."[11] Losing any key
market for Jordanian exports may result in significant
layoffs and further stifle job opportunities in the country.
Jordan after all, is already in an economically vulnerable
position. Anani summarized these concerns saying, "These
issues will have great costs involved and it is important
for Jordan to carefully calculate these costs and their
repercussions in the long run." Jordanians acutely remember
the devastating economic affect that both wars in Iraq had
on the kingdom, albeit for differing reasons, and are not
eager to undergo them again. Though Syria is not Jordan's
biggest trade partner, the two countries enjoy extensive
commercial and economic relations.
Other Jordanians are critical of the Arab League's decision
to suspend Syria-and as such, Jordan's role in supporting
this decision-based on the view that "the adoption of this
escalatory stance will inevitably lead to an escalation" on
the part of the Syrians.[12] Muhammad Ka'wash writes in
independent newspaper, al-'Arab al-Yawm, that the decision
to suspend Syria's Arab League membership has complicated
the crisis rather than helped provide a solution to it. He
cautioned that "this decision might further exacerbate the
situation and lead to more clashes and further bloodshed."
Ka'wash also echoed the sentiment found throughout the
Jordanian media that suspending and even sanctioning Syria
will potentially "internationalize the crisis and allow
external parties to interfere politically and militarily in
Syria." The prospect of Syria becoming another Libya is
something that many in Jordan fear due to the devastating
economic, security and humanitarian effect such a situation
would have on the kingdom.
Despite the internal debate in Jordan over what to do about
Syria, threatening events continue to unfold. On November
22, the Syrian National Council announced that it is
organizing a conference with the Arab League in preparation
for a "transitional period" following what they see as the
imminent fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Jordan
must, of course, weigh its own internal concerns as they
relate to Syria. However, there are additional supranational
concerns that contend with its internal affairs. There is
U.S pressure to consider, since Jordan is the second largest
recipient of per capita financial assistance in this region.
There is also pressure to go along with the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC), since the Hashemite Kingdom has a bid to join
the exclusive Council. Finally, there is pressure from the
other Arab League states. Jordan must factor all these
angles into this complicated equation. Jordan suffered
greatly for sitting out the Gulf War and as Omar Obediat of
the Jordan Times observed, though Jordan is but a small
player in the issue of sanctions against Syria "it can
[again] resist for too long."[13]
----------------------------------------------------------
Notes
[1] For more on fears of internationalizing the conflict and
preventing the "implementation of a foreign agenda," see:
'Uraib al-Rintawi, "Between the Scorching Heat of the Regime
and the League's Fire (Bayna Ramda' al-Nizam wa-l-Nar al-
al-Jami'a)," al-Dustur (Jordan), November 16, 2011,
[Arabic] www.addustour.com
and Yasir al-Za'atira, "The Syrian Revolution Following
the Arab League Decision (al-Thawra al-Surriya ba'ad Qirar
al-Jami'a al-'Arabia)," al-Dustur (Jordan), November 16, 2011,
[Arabic] www.addustour.com
[2] "The Arab Solution is Syria's Rescue Ship (al-Hal al-
Arabi Safinat al-Naja li-Surya)," al-Dustur (Jordan),
November 16, 2011, [Arabic] www.addustour.com
[3] "The Arab League Ministerial Council's Resolution
Following up the Situation in Syria (Qirar Majlis al-Jami'a
al-'Arabia al-Wuzari bi-Shan Mutaba'a al-Wad'a fi Surya),"
al-Jami'a al-'Arabia (Jordan), November 12, 2011, [Arabic]
www.arableagueonline.org
[4] King Abdullah II, Interview by Lyse Doucet for BBC,
November 14, 2011.
www.kingabdullah.jo/index.php/en_US/interviews/view/id/479/videoDisplay/0.html
[5] Lyse Doucet, "Syria's Assad Should Step Aside, Says
Jordan's Abdullah," BBC News, November 14, 2011. On November
22, 2011, Turkish Prime Minister was quoted saying to Bashar
al-Assad, "For the welfare of your own people and the
region, just leave that seat." This statement will likely
not be the last made by leaders from the region and beyond.
[6] Jabhat al-'Amal al-Islami, or the Islamic Action Front
(IAF), is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in
Jordan. [Arabic] www.jabha.info
[7] "Indicators of Hostility between Amman and Damascus Rose
(Mu'ashirat al-'Ada' bayna 'Amman wa Dimashq 'Irtaf'at),"
al-Sabil (Jordan), November 16 2011, [Arabic]
www.assabeel.net
[8] "Memorandum Calling on the Government to Recognize the
Syrian National Council (Mudhakkara Tatalib al-Hakuma al-
I'tiraf bi al-Majlis al-Watani al-Suri)," Jabhat al-'Amal
al-Islami (Jordan), November 16, 2011, [Arabic]
www.jabha.info
[9] "Damascus Apologizes for the Attack on the Jordanian
Embassy (Dimashq Ta'tadhiru 'an al-I'tida' 'ala al-Safara
al-'Urduniyya)," al-Ra'i (Jordan), November 16, 2011.
[Arabic] http://alrai.com/article/2596.html
[10] Omar Obediat, "Jordan Advised to Play it Carefully as
Powers Seek more Sanctions on Damascus," The Jordan Times,
November 14, 2011.
[11] Omar Obeidat, "Sector Leaders Concerned over Possible
Economic Sanctions in Syria," The Jordan Times, November 21,
2011.
[12] Muhammad Ka'wash, "The Arab League Decision between
Escalation and Complication (Qirar al-Jami'a bayna al-Tas'id
wa-l-Ta'aqid)," al-'Arab al-Yawm (Jordan), November 16,
2011, [Arabic]
www.alarabalyawm.net/pages.php?articles_id=17697
[13] "Jordan Advised to Play it Carefully as Powers Seek
more Sanctions on Damascus."
----------------------------------------------------------
Copyright Foreign Policy Research Institute
(http://www.fpri.org/).
~MIDDLE EAST MEDIA MONITOR~
JORDAN'S QUANDARY OVER SYRIA
by Tally Helfont
In recent weeks, a contentious debate has arisen in Jordan
over what should be done about the country's troublesome
northern neighbor, Syria. Though the Jordanians, like many
others in the region, were mostly preoccupied with their own
internal troubles over the past eight months, there has been
a palpable change in the discourse on Syria in the kingdom.
Indeed, the recent slew of activities by the Arab League has
brought the Syrian troubles to the fore. However, it was two
other major events that sparked the intensification of this
debate in Jordan-namely, King Abdullah II's recent BBC
interview in which he conceded that Bashar al-Assad had lost
the legitimacy to rule and the subsequent attack on the
Jordanian embassy in Damascus by pro-Assad, Syrian
protesters.
The region specifically, and the international community
more generally, have over time come to expect very little
from the Arab League. However, during the past few weeks the
league of 22 Arab members has produced a flurry of activity.
To some, these activities are merely surprising and, to
others, worthy of serious scrutiny. On November 2, 2011, the
Arab League put forth "the Arab [Peace] Initiative"-a
indigenous plan to end the violence in Syria that would
prevent further loss of life, and more importantly to some,
prevent the "internationalization of the conflict."[1]
Though Syria initially agreed to terms of the Initiative,
which called for, inter alia, a cessation of violence,
withdrawal of troops from the cities, release of detainees,
and acceptance of an Arab League observation mission to
oversee the implementation of the plan, it quickly became
clear that Assad's regime had no intention of truly
complying.[2] In response to the more than 3,500 protestors
killed and the procrastination by Syria's leadership, the
Arab League announced on November 12 that it would suspend
the Syrian delegation from Arab League meetings until its
full implementation of the commitments that were agreed upon
under the Arab Initiative.[3] Jordan was among the countries
that voted in support of Syria's suspension.
On November 14, Abdullah sat down with the BBC's Lyse Doucet
for a one-on-one interview about the tenuous situation
unfolding in the region.[4] The conversation, however,
focused primarily on one topic: whether Abdullah thought
that it was time for Assad to go. Ms. Doucet posed the
question to the Jordanian monarch numerous times and in
different ways. The take-away from the sum of the king's
responses was that, in his estimation, "we deceive ourselves
if we think that things will change dramatically if the
individual is gone _ the problem is deeper than that and it
is the system, the political system that is set up in
Syria." The king attempted to provide a nuanced response to
the internal Syrian situation by saying that the Assad he
knew "has reform in his blood," that "the [Syrian] system
does not allow for reform," and that Assad wasn't the only
one responsible for the events on the ground since "both his
brother and brother-in-law are very active on the military
side." Nevertheless, Abdullah still conceded that "the
decision taken overwhelmingly by the Arab League shows that
we are extremely concerned about the future of Syria and the
way the leadership is moving." In the end, Doucet's
persistence was rewarded and she obtained her much sought-
after sound bite. "He is now the first Arab leader to openly
say President Bashar al-Assad should step down" said the
article, though the statement was qualified with an
additional assertion about the importance of making "sure
whoever comes behind. . . has the ability to change the
status quo."[5]
No matter how diplomatic Abdullah thought he was being, the
ill-fated sound bite made its way to the streets of the
Syrian capital. The very next day, over a hundred protestors
amassed outside the gates of the Jordanian embassy in
Damascus, bearing Syrian flags as well as flags of the
Lebanese Shi'i militant group, Hezbollah. Protestors
vehemently denounced Jordan's support for regional efforts
to pressure the Syrian government, chanting anti-Jordanian
slogans and throwing eggs at the compound. What's more,
according to, al-Sabil-a Jordanian political daily
affiliated with the Islamic Action Front[6]-the Jordanian
ambassador reported that the embassy's flag had been torn
down and replaced with Hezbollah's flag. A spokesman for the
Jordanian Foreign Ministry, Mohammed al-Kayed, quickly
refuted the latter portion of the claim and added that none
of the embassy staff was injured in the incident.[7]
Jordan's embassy was not the only one to be targeted. The
embassies of Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar
were also attacked for their complicity in supporting the
Arab League's initiatives vis-…-vis Syria.
Though the Syrians issued an apology the next day, the
damage had been done. Calls to remove the Jordanian
ambassador from Syria and kick out the Syrian ambassador in
Jordan were widespread. The secretary general of the Islamic
Action Front, Hamza Mansour, penned a letter to Jordan's new
Prime Minister, Awn Khasawneh, requesting the withdrawal of
the Jordanian Ambassador, and more importantly, the
recognition of the Syrian National Council as the legitimate
representative of the Syrian people.[8] Likewise, hundreds
of Jordanians tried to storm the Syrian Embassy in Amman in
retaliation for to the attack on their own embassy in
Damascus, though they were prevented from doing any damage
by a formidable contingent of the kingdom's Gendarmerie. The
assembled protestors called for the Syrian president to step
down and for the expulsion of the Syrian ambassador from
Amman.[9] The Jordanian leadership has thus far held back
from both measures and has made it clear that it intends to
operate within the consensus of the Arab League.
However, not everyone in Jordan agrees that the kingdom
should penalize its northern neighbor. The prospect of the
Arab League initiating economic sanctions against the Syrian
Arab Republic has some Jordanians up in arms.
Representatives of key economic sectors predict that such
measures will have a strongly negative impact on Jordan's
economy. In a recent Jordan Times article-a government owned
daily-economist Jawad Anani, who has also served as chief of
the Royal Court and held several ministerial posts,
explained that implementing sanctions against Syria "will
cause large losses to the Kingdom in terms of trade,
transport and investments."[10] In a follow-up article in
the Times, Nael Kabariti, president of the Jordan Chamber of
Commerce, was quoted as saying, "Syria is not only a
strategic market for the Kingdom, but also a gateway to the
Turkish, Lebanese and European markets."[11] Losing any key
market for Jordanian exports may result in significant
layoffs and further stifle job opportunities in the country.
Jordan after all, is already in an economically vulnerable
position. Anani summarized these concerns saying, "These
issues will have great costs involved and it is important
for Jordan to carefully calculate these costs and their
repercussions in the long run." Jordanians acutely remember
the devastating economic affect that both wars in Iraq had
on the kingdom, albeit for differing reasons, and are not
eager to undergo them again. Though Syria is not Jordan's
biggest trade partner, the two countries enjoy extensive
commercial and economic relations.
Other Jordanians are critical of the Arab League's decision
to suspend Syria-and as such, Jordan's role in supporting
this decision-based on the view that "the adoption of this
escalatory stance will inevitably lead to an escalation" on
the part of the Syrians.[12] Muhammad Ka'wash writes in
independent newspaper, al-'Arab al-Yawm, that the decision
to suspend Syria's Arab League membership has complicated
the crisis rather than helped provide a solution to it. He
cautioned that "this decision might further exacerbate the
situation and lead to more clashes and further bloodshed."
Ka'wash also echoed the sentiment found throughout the
Jordanian media that suspending and even sanctioning Syria
will potentially "internationalize the crisis and allow
external parties to interfere politically and militarily in
Syria." The prospect of Syria becoming another Libya is
something that many in Jordan fear due to the devastating
economic, security and humanitarian effect such a situation
would have on the kingdom.
Despite the internal debate in Jordan over what to do about
Syria, threatening events continue to unfold. On November
22, the Syrian National Council announced that it is
organizing a conference with the Arab League in preparation
for a "transitional period" following what they see as the
imminent fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Jordan
must, of course, weigh its own internal concerns as they
relate to Syria. However, there are additional supranational
concerns that contend with its internal affairs. There is
U.S pressure to consider, since Jordan is the second largest
recipient of per capita financial assistance in this region.
There is also pressure to go along with the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC), since the Hashemite Kingdom has a bid to join
the exclusive Council. Finally, there is pressure from the
other Arab League states. Jordan must factor all these
angles into this complicated equation. Jordan suffered
greatly for sitting out the Gulf War and as Omar Obediat of
the Jordan Times observed, though Jordan is but a small
player in the issue of sanctions against Syria "it can
[again] resist for too long."[13]
----------------------------------------------------------
Notes
[1] For more on fears of internationalizing the conflict and
preventing the "implementation of a foreign agenda," see:
'Uraib al-Rintawi, "Between the Scorching Heat of the Regime
and the League's Fire (Bayna Ramda' al-Nizam wa-l-Nar al-
al-Jami'a)," al-Dustur (Jordan), November 16, 2011,
[Arabic] www.addustour.com
and Yasir al-Za'atira, "The Syrian Revolution Following
the Arab League Decision (al-Thawra al-Surriya ba'ad Qirar
al-Jami'a al-'Arabia)," al-Dustur (Jordan), November 16, 2011,
[Arabic] www.addustour.com
[2] "The Arab Solution is Syria's Rescue Ship (al-Hal al-
Arabi Safinat al-Naja li-Surya)," al-Dustur (Jordan),
November 16, 2011, [Arabic] www.addustour.com
[3] "The Arab League Ministerial Council's Resolution
Following up the Situation in Syria (Qirar Majlis al-Jami'a
al-'Arabia al-Wuzari bi-Shan Mutaba'a al-Wad'a fi Surya),"
al-Jami'a al-'Arabia (Jordan), November 12, 2011, [Arabic]
www.arableagueonline.org
[4] King Abdullah II, Interview by Lyse Doucet for BBC,
November 14, 2011.
www.kingabdullah.jo/index.php/en_US/interviews/view/id/479/videoDisplay/0.html
[5] Lyse Doucet, "Syria's Assad Should Step Aside, Says
Jordan's Abdullah," BBC News, November 14, 2011. On November
22, 2011, Turkish Prime Minister was quoted saying to Bashar
al-Assad, "For the welfare of your own people and the
region, just leave that seat." This statement will likely
not be the last made by leaders from the region and beyond.
[6] Jabhat al-'Amal al-Islami, or the Islamic Action Front
(IAF), is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in
Jordan. [Arabic] www.jabha.info
[7] "Indicators of Hostility between Amman and Damascus Rose
(Mu'ashirat al-'Ada' bayna 'Amman wa Dimashq 'Irtaf'at),"
al-Sabil (Jordan), November 16 2011, [Arabic]
www.assabeel.net
[8] "Memorandum Calling on the Government to Recognize the
Syrian National Council (Mudhakkara Tatalib al-Hakuma al-
I'tiraf bi al-Majlis al-Watani al-Suri)," Jabhat al-'Amal
al-Islami (Jordan), November 16, 2011, [Arabic]
www.jabha.info
[9] "Damascus Apologizes for the Attack on the Jordanian
Embassy (Dimashq Ta'tadhiru 'an al-I'tida' 'ala al-Safara
al-'Urduniyya)," al-Ra'i (Jordan), November 16, 2011.
[Arabic] http://alrai.com/article/2596.html
[10] Omar Obediat, "Jordan Advised to Play it Carefully as
Powers Seek more Sanctions on Damascus," The Jordan Times,
November 14, 2011.
[11] Omar Obeidat, "Sector Leaders Concerned over Possible
Economic Sanctions in Syria," The Jordan Times, November 21,
2011.
[12] Muhammad Ka'wash, "The Arab League Decision between
Escalation and Complication (Qirar al-Jami'a bayna al-Tas'id
wa-l-Ta'aqid)," al-'Arab al-Yawm (Jordan), November 16,
2011, [Arabic]
www.alarabalyawm.net/pages.php?articles_id=17697
[13] "Jordan Advised to Play it Carefully as Powers Seek
more Sanctions on Damascus."
----------------------------------------------------------
Copyright Foreign Policy Research Institute
(http://www.fpri.org/).
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