Saturday, December 31, 2011

JORDAN'S QUANDARY OVER SYRIA

From FPRI:

~MIDDLE EAST MEDIA MONITOR~


JORDAN'S QUANDARY OVER SYRIA



by Tally Helfont



In recent weeks, a contentious debate has arisen in Jordan

over what should be done about the country's troublesome

northern neighbor, Syria. Though the Jordanians, like many

others in the region, were mostly preoccupied with their own

internal troubles over the past eight months, there has been

a palpable change in the discourse on Syria in the kingdom.

Indeed, the recent slew of activities by the Arab League has

brought the Syrian troubles to the fore. However, it was two

other major events that sparked the intensification of this

debate in Jordan-namely, King Abdullah II's recent BBC

interview in which he conceded that Bashar al-Assad had lost

the legitimacy to rule and the subsequent attack on the

Jordanian embassy in Damascus by pro-Assad, Syrian

protesters.



The region specifically, and the international community

more generally, have over time come to expect very little

from the Arab League. However, during the past few weeks the

league of 22 Arab members has produced a flurry of activity.

To some, these activities are merely surprising and, to

others, worthy of serious scrutiny. On November 2, 2011, the

Arab League put forth "the Arab [Peace] Initiative"-a

indigenous plan to end the violence in Syria that would

prevent further loss of life, and more importantly to some,

prevent the "internationalization of the conflict."[1]

Though Syria initially agreed to terms of the Initiative,

which called for, inter alia, a cessation of violence,

withdrawal of troops from the cities, release of detainees,

and acceptance of an Arab League observation mission to

oversee the implementation of the plan, it quickly became

clear that Assad's regime had no intention of truly

complying.[2] In response to the more than 3,500 protestors

killed and the procrastination by Syria's leadership, the

Arab League announced on November 12 that it would suspend

the Syrian delegation from Arab League meetings until its

full implementation of the commitments that were agreed upon

under the Arab Initiative.[3] Jordan was among the countries

that voted in support of Syria's suspension.



On November 14, Abdullah sat down with the BBC's Lyse Doucet

for a one-on-one interview about the tenuous situation

unfolding in the region.[4] The conversation, however,

focused primarily on one topic: whether Abdullah thought

that it was time for Assad to go. Ms. Doucet posed the

question to the Jordanian monarch numerous times and in

different ways. The take-away from the sum of the king's

responses was that, in his estimation, "we deceive ourselves

if we think that things will change dramatically if the

individual is gone _ the problem is deeper than that and it

is the system, the political system that is set up in

Syria." The king attempted to provide a nuanced response to

the internal Syrian situation by saying that the Assad he

knew "has reform in his blood," that "the [Syrian] system

does not allow for reform," and that Assad wasn't the only

one responsible for the events on the ground since "both his

brother and brother-in-law are very active on the military

side." Nevertheless, Abdullah still conceded that "the

decision taken overwhelmingly by the Arab League shows that

we are extremely concerned about the future of Syria and the

way the leadership is moving." In the end, Doucet's

persistence was rewarded and she obtained her much sought-

after sound bite. "He is now the first Arab leader to openly

say President Bashar al-Assad should step down" said the

article, though the statement was qualified with an

additional assertion about the importance of making "sure

whoever comes behind. . . has the ability to change the

status quo."[5]



No matter how diplomatic Abdullah thought he was being, the

ill-fated sound bite made its way to the streets of the

Syrian capital. The very next day, over a hundred protestors

amassed outside the gates of the Jordanian embassy in

Damascus, bearing Syrian flags as well as flags of the

Lebanese Shi'i militant group, Hezbollah. Protestors

vehemently denounced Jordan's support for regional efforts

to pressure the Syrian government, chanting anti-Jordanian

slogans and throwing eggs at the compound. What's more,

according to, al-Sabil-a Jordanian political daily

affiliated with the Islamic Action Front[6]-the Jordanian

ambassador reported that the embassy's flag had been torn

down and replaced with Hezbollah's flag. A spokesman for the

Jordanian Foreign Ministry, Mohammed al-Kayed, quickly

refuted the latter portion of the claim and added that none

of the embassy staff was injured in the incident.[7]

Jordan's embassy was not the only one to be targeted. The

embassies of Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar

were also attacked for their complicity in supporting the

Arab League's initiatives vis-…-vis Syria.



Though the Syrians issued an apology the next day, the

damage had been done. Calls to remove the Jordanian

ambassador from Syria and kick out the Syrian ambassador in

Jordan were widespread. The secretary general of the Islamic

Action Front, Hamza Mansour, penned a letter to Jordan's new

Prime Minister, Awn Khasawneh, requesting the withdrawal of

the Jordanian Ambassador, and more importantly, the

recognition of the Syrian National Council as the legitimate

representative of the Syrian people.[8] Likewise, hundreds

of Jordanians tried to storm the Syrian Embassy in Amman in

retaliation for to the attack on their own embassy in

Damascus, though they were prevented from doing any damage

by a formidable contingent of the kingdom's Gendarmerie. The

assembled protestors called for the Syrian president to step

down and for the expulsion of the Syrian ambassador from

Amman.[9] The Jordanian leadership has thus far held back

from both measures and has made it clear that it intends to

operate within the consensus of the Arab League.



However, not everyone in Jordan agrees that the kingdom

should penalize its northern neighbor. The prospect of the

Arab League initiating economic sanctions against the Syrian

Arab Republic has some Jordanians up in arms.

Representatives of key economic sectors predict that such

measures will have a strongly negative impact on Jordan's

economy. In a recent Jordan Times article-a government owned

daily-economist Jawad Anani, who has also served as chief of

the Royal Court and held several ministerial posts,

explained that implementing sanctions against Syria "will

cause large losses to the Kingdom in terms of trade,

transport and investments."[10] In a follow-up article in

the Times, Nael Kabariti, president of the Jordan Chamber of

Commerce, was quoted as saying, "Syria is not only a

strategic market for the Kingdom, but also a gateway to the

Turkish, Lebanese and European markets."[11] Losing any key

market for Jordanian exports may result in significant

layoffs and further stifle job opportunities in the country.

Jordan after all, is already in an economically vulnerable

position. Anani summarized these concerns saying, "These

issues will have great costs involved and it is important

for Jordan to carefully calculate these costs and their

repercussions in the long run." Jordanians acutely remember

the devastating economic affect that both wars in Iraq had

on the kingdom, albeit for differing reasons, and are not

eager to undergo them again. Though Syria is not Jordan's

biggest trade partner, the two countries enjoy extensive

commercial and economic relations.



Other Jordanians are critical of the Arab League's decision

to suspend Syria-and as such, Jordan's role in supporting

this decision-based on the view that "the adoption of this

escalatory stance will inevitably lead to an escalation" on

the part of the Syrians.[12] Muhammad Ka'wash writes in

independent newspaper, al-'Arab al-Yawm, that the decision

to suspend Syria's Arab League membership has complicated

the crisis rather than helped provide a solution to it. He

cautioned that "this decision might further exacerbate the

situation and lead to more clashes and further bloodshed."

Ka'wash also echoed the sentiment found throughout the

Jordanian media that suspending and even sanctioning Syria

will potentially "internationalize the crisis and allow

external parties to interfere politically and militarily in

Syria." The prospect of Syria becoming another Libya is

something that many in Jordan fear due to the devastating

economic, security and humanitarian effect such a situation

would have on the kingdom.



Despite the internal debate in Jordan over what to do about

Syria, threatening events continue to unfold. On November

22, the Syrian National Council announced that it is

organizing a conference with the Arab League in preparation

for a "transitional period" following what they see as the

imminent fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Jordan

must, of course, weigh its own internal concerns as they

relate to Syria. However, there are additional supranational

concerns that contend with its internal affairs. There is

U.S pressure to consider, since Jordan is the second largest

recipient of per capita financial assistance in this region.

There is also pressure to go along with the Gulf Cooperation

Council (GCC), since the Hashemite Kingdom has a bid to join

the exclusive Council. Finally, there is pressure from the

other Arab League states. Jordan must factor all these

angles into this complicated equation. Jordan suffered

greatly for sitting out the Gulf War and as Omar Obediat of

the Jordan Times observed, though Jordan is but a small

player in the issue of sanctions against Syria "it can

[again] resist for too long."[13]



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Notes

[1] For more on fears of internationalizing the conflict and

preventing the "implementation of a foreign agenda," see:

'Uraib al-Rintawi, "Between the Scorching Heat of the Regime

and the League's Fire (Bayna Ramda' al-Nizam wa-l-Nar al-

al-Jami'a)," al-Dustur (Jordan), November 16, 2011,

[Arabic] www.addustour.com

and Yasir al-Za'atira, "The Syrian Revolution Following

the Arab League Decision (al-Thawra al-Surriya ba'ad Qirar

al-Jami'a al-'Arabia)," al-Dustur (Jordan), November 16, 2011,

[Arabic] www.addustour.com



[2] "The Arab Solution is Syria's Rescue Ship (al-Hal al-

Arabi Safinat al-Naja li-Surya)," al-Dustur (Jordan),

November 16, 2011, [Arabic] www.addustour.com



[3] "The Arab League Ministerial Council's Resolution

Following up the Situation in Syria (Qirar Majlis al-Jami'a

al-'Arabia al-Wuzari bi-Shan Mutaba'a al-Wad'a fi Surya),"

al-Jami'a al-'Arabia (Jordan), November 12, 2011, [Arabic]

www.arableagueonline.org



[4] King Abdullah II, Interview by Lyse Doucet for BBC,

November 14, 2011.

www.kingabdullah.jo/index.php/en_US/interviews/view/id/479/videoDisplay/0.html



[5] Lyse Doucet, "Syria's Assad Should Step Aside, Says

Jordan's Abdullah," BBC News, November 14, 2011. On November

22, 2011, Turkish Prime Minister was quoted saying to Bashar

al-Assad, "For the welfare of your own people and the

region, just leave that seat." This statement will likely

not be the last made by leaders from the region and beyond.



[6] Jabhat al-'Amal al-Islami, or the Islamic Action Front

(IAF), is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in

Jordan. [Arabic] www.jabha.info



[7] "Indicators of Hostility between Amman and Damascus Rose

(Mu'ashirat al-'Ada' bayna 'Amman wa Dimashq 'Irtaf'at),"

al-Sabil (Jordan), November 16 2011, [Arabic]

www.assabeel.net



[8] "Memorandum Calling on the Government to Recognize the

Syrian National Council (Mudhakkara Tatalib al-Hakuma al-

I'tiraf bi al-Majlis al-Watani al-Suri)," Jabhat al-'Amal

al-Islami (Jordan), November 16, 2011, [Arabic]

www.jabha.info



[9] "Damascus Apologizes for the Attack on the Jordanian

Embassy (Dimashq Ta'tadhiru 'an al-I'tida' 'ala al-Safara

al-'Urduniyya)," al-Ra'i (Jordan), November 16, 2011.

[Arabic] http://alrai.com/article/2596.html



[10] Omar Obediat, "Jordan Advised to Play it Carefully as

Powers Seek more Sanctions on Damascus," The Jordan Times,

November 14, 2011.



[11] Omar Obeidat, "Sector Leaders Concerned over Possible

Economic Sanctions in Syria," The Jordan Times, November 21,

2011.



[12] Muhammad Ka'wash, "The Arab League Decision between

Escalation and Complication (Qirar al-Jami'a bayna al-Tas'id

wa-l-Ta'aqid)," al-'Arab al-Yawm (Jordan), November 16,

2011, [Arabic]

www.alarabalyawm.net/pages.php?articles_id=17697



[13] "Jordan Advised to Play it Carefully as Powers Seek

more Sanctions on Damascus."



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Copyright Foreign Policy Research Institute

(http://www.fpri.org/).

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