Friday, May 6, 2011

The Rise And Future Fall Of A Turkish-Iranian Axis

From FPRI:

~MIDDLE EAST MEDIA MONITOR~


THE RISE AND (FUTURE) FALL OF A TURKISH-IRANIAN AXIS

by Gallia Lindenstrauss and Yoel Guzansky



April 27, 2011



Middle East Media Monitor is a new FPRI E-Note series,

designed to review once a month a current topic from the

perspective of the foreign language press in such countries

as Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Turkey. These articles

will focus on providing FPRI's readership with an inside

view on how some of the most important countries in the

Middle East are covering issues of importance to the

American foreign policy community.



Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss and Yoel Guzansky are research

associates at the Institute for National Security Studies

(INSS), Tel Aviv University, Israel. Several arguments

presented here have also appeared in their joint piece,

"Turkey and Iran: The Politics of Strange Bedfellows,"

published in the April 2011 issue of the INSS Strategic

Assessment.



Available on the web and in pdf format at:

http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201104.lindenstrauss_guzansky.turkey_iran.html



~MIDDLE EAST MEDIA MONITOR~



THE RISE AND (FUTURE) FALL OF A TURKISH-IRANIAN AXIS



by Gallia Lindenstrauss and Yoel Guzansky



The continuing rise of Turkey and Iran at the expense of the

Arab states is troubling to the West. This is particularly

the case because the parallel rise to power has been

expressed in a warming of relations between these two

states-a sharp contrast to the mutual suspicion that

characterized the bilateral relationship in the past. These

trends have also been interpreted in the West as a turn

eastward in Turkish foreign policy, and Turkey is no longer

seen as the dependable ally it used to be during the Cold

War.



The current thawing of the relations between Turkey and Iran

has been articulated in different ways. In public

statements, the Turks and the Iranians have stressed the

longstanding peaceful nature of their shared border. For

example, the Iranian ambassador to Turkey, in a public

speech, stated that "400-year peace and stability on the

Iranian-Turkish Borders, indicates positive and progressive

relations in the fields of political, economic and cultural

arena between two countries."[1] Indeed, neither state has

any territorial claim against the other. Trade relations

have been greatly expanded, leading the two states to

consider signing a free-trade agreement. Finally, Iran has

allowed Turkish mediation on the nuclear issue and is

cooperating, more than ever, in their fight against the

Kurdish separatists.



However, despite the present cooperation, there remains

great potential for dispute between Iran and Turkey, and

there exists the possibility of long-term competition for

regional dominance developing. Over time, certainly if Iran

acquires a nuclear weapon capability, Ankara is less likely

to strengthen its cooperation with Tehran and existing

differences between the two countries will rise to the

surface. In fact, the basic interests of Ankara and

Tehran-in some if not most issues-collide, which could lead

to disagreements, and in the long run even conflict, between

these two non-Arab powers in the Middle East.



NUCLEAR CONCERNS

Progress in the Iranian nuclear program may have negative

implications on Turkish-Iranian relations. The Turks have

stated repeatedly that they oppose nuclear weapons

proliferation in the Middle East. Western reactions to

Iranian nuclear development have already presented Turkey

with a number of dilemmas, including forcing the Turks to

decide whether to vote for or against further UN sanctions

against Iran. Likewise, the advance of the Iranian nuclear

program translates, in some respects, to a failure of

Turkey's mediation efforts.



IRAQ

The future of Iraq, in light of the imminent withdrawal of

U.S. forces, may also create problems between Turkey and

Iran. While neither country wishes to see Iraq disintegrate,

they each have their own preferences for how the future

Iraqi state should take shape. While Iran would benefit from

having a weak state on its border that maintains Shiite

political dominance and is virtually cut off from Western

influence, Turkey would prefer for Iraq to be ruled by a

broad-based coalition with adequate Sunni minority

representation. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip

Erdogan's visit to Iraq in March 2011, in which he made

historic excursions to the Kurdish regions and to Shiite

holy sites, clearly demonstrated Turkey's active interest in

Iraq's future. During his visit, Erdogan declared that "Iraq

is a brotherly nation_For years we have felt in our hearts

the ordeals and pain, and we have been following the

developments since then with admiration."[2]



SYRIA

Competing interests might also arise concerning developments

in Syria. While both Iran and Turkey would like to see

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's rule continue, they want

this outcome for different reasons. Turkey, as part of its

"Zero Problems (with its neighbors) Policy," has worked in

recent years to improve relations with Syria, based in part

on strong economic incentives. Turkey is also concerned with

the potential spillover effect that an intra-state conflict

involving the 1.4 million Kurds in Syria might have on its

own Kurdish population. In light of the wave of protest in

Syria, Erdogan advised al-Assad to "answer the people's

calls with a reformist, positive approach" and explained

that "We have a border of 800 kilometers [with Syria] and we

have family relations. We cannot remain silent."[3] Iran, on

the other hand, has built its relations with Syria on

resisting Israel and its efforts to strengthen Hezbollah as

a proxy against the "Zionist entity." Accordingly, it has no

desire to see major changes in Syrian policies.



LEBANON

Turkey is also trying to increase its influence in Lebanon,

which could be understood as being at the expense of Iranian

influence there. In November 2010, Erdogan visited Lebanon-a

visit that attracted extensive media coverage-shortly

following Ahmadinejad's own visit to the country. During his

visit, Erdogan, in an effort to be seen as Lebanon's

champion, criticized Israel harshly and even threatened to

respond should Israel have the audacity to attack Lebanon.

"We will not be silent and we will support justice by all

means available to us," declared Erdogan.[4] Turkey has also

tried, thus far to no avail, to mediate between the various

factions vying for control of Lebanon. In this vein, Turkish

Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has met both with

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and with Hezbollah

Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah. Conversely, Iran

continues to staunchly support only Hezbollah, which is one

of the main sources of instability within Lebanon.



ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT

As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Turkey still

supports a settlement while Iran does not accept the

legitimacy of Israel's existence. Iran, by supporting terror

groups like Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, is

trying its best to prevent the two sides from reaching an

agreement. In contrast, the dealings between Turkey and

Hamas do not necessarily stem from a desire to strengthen

the organization's control over the Gaza Strip, but rather

from Turkey's belief that promoting negotiations between

Israel and the Palestinians means treating Hamas as a

legitimate actor. Turkish President, Abdullah G�l, speaking

at a joint press conference with Russian President Dmitry

Medvedev in May 2010 stated, "When Turkey talked [with

Hamas], it faced threats but it emerged that Turkey was

right. You cannot achieve peace by excluding people."[5]



ARAB GULF STATES

Another source of friction between Iran and Turkey may

result from Ankara's efforts towards closer relations with

the Arab Gulf states. These states fear Iran and seek to

prevent it from attaining nuclear capabilities. As such, a

growing strategic partnership between Turkey and the Gulf

states may help in balancing Iran's power in the Gulf. In

line with these efforts, Turkey's status in the Gulf was

made official in 2008 when a security memorandum of

understanding was signed. In this document, Turkey was the

first state to be recognized as a strategic partner of the

Gulf Cooperation Council. Differences in the Turkish and

Iranian stances towards the Gulf states were made apparent

during the recent upheavals in Bahrain. When Saudi forces

entered Bahrain to stabilize the situation at the Bahraini

royal family's request, Iran decried Saudi actions, labeling

them an "invasion."[6] Alternatively, Turkey held high-level

meetings with all the relevant parties, attempting to

prevent a spillover of local grievances into a regional

conflict along the Sunni-Shiite divide.[7]



LIBYA

The two states also differ in their approach to the Libya

situation. While at first, Turkey strongly rejected military

intervention, it has since been taking part in NATO efforts.

These initiatives are in line with United Nations Security

Council Resolution 1973, adopted on March 17, 2011,

authorizing the use of all means short of occupation to

protect Libyan citizens. Iran, on the other hand, has called

the NATO intervention "a big stupidity" and predicted "that

the NATO-US invasion would throw them to the depth of an

abyss_"[8] Turkey cannot be pleased with such statements.

Not only do they condemn Turkey's actions, as a NATO member,

but they also highlight a reversal of Turkish policies

toward Libya.



LEADERSHIP OF THE MUSLIM WORLD

An additional area of friction between the two countries may

be over leadership of the Muslim world. In a poll conducted

in Muslim countries shortly after Gaza flotilla incident,

Erdogan was elected the most popular leader, earning the

support of 20 percent of the respondents.[9] The editor of

the daily al-Quds al-Arabi who, after the flotilla event

criticized the impotence of Arab regimes vis-�-vis Israel,

praised the Turkish Prime Minister saying, he was "more Arab

than the Arabs."[10] The fact that Turkey's critical stance

towards Israel is exercised for the most part rhetorically

and by means of "soft power," yet puts pressure on Israel,

implies that this may be a better route than the violent

path promoted by Iran. In addition, it has been suggested

that the "Turkish model," in terms of its domestic

character, might be appropriate for Arab countries

experiencing revolution. This model becomes especially

relevant when considering the Iranian alternative, which

views recent events as an opportunity to improve its

regional standing. Indeed, the current uprisings have been

described by Iran as "_part of the fruits of the Iranian

nation's resistance."[11]



CONCLUSION

Despite the major changes in Turkish foreign policy in

recent years, Turkey remains a partner of the West. With its

potential role in mediating diverse issues, Turkey could

still be helpful on several fronts: Iraq, where it has

played a major role in the handling of the Kurdish issue and

in protecting the Sunni minority against discrimination;

Afghanistan and Libya, where Turkey, as a NATO member, can

continue its involvement in line with American and coalition

aims; and even the Iranian nuclear issue, where it shares

the basic interest with the West to prevent Iran from

becoming a nuclear state.





The United States should continue to involve Turkey actively

in forming its policies towards the Middle East. Frequent

consultations should take place, as in the recent relatively

successful example regarding developments in Egypt and in

Libya. Turkey's so-called "shift to the East," if it

occurred at all, is neither fixed nor inevitable. Hence, it

can still be influenced, and it is vital that the West, led

by the United States, not give Turkey a cold shoulder.

Recommending that the West engage more with Turkey is not

motivated by a fear of a strong Turkish-Iranian axis-for as

we have shown, this alliance can be seen as both temporary

and limited-but because of Turkey's increased strength as a

regional actor. Its growing influence on regional players

can serve not only to promote certain U.S. policies but also

to add legitimacy to what might otherwise seem as Western,

"outside" interference.



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Notes



[1] "Turkish-Iranian Relations and Recent Development in the

Region," Turkish Weekly, February 22, 2010,

www.turkishweekly.net/article/342/turkish-iranian-relations-and-recent-development-in-the-region.html

See also, "Erdogan Emphasizes 400-Years of Friendship with Iran,

" TRT-world.com, September 17, 2010,

www.trtturkmence.com/trtworld/en/newsDetail.aspx?HaberKodu=7bb760dd-5c8b-4e8f-abfa-a6f6eb88fc07



[2] "Erdogan Given a Hero's Welcome in Streets of Arbil,

Najaf," Today's Zaman, March 30, 2011

www.todayszaman.com/news-239553-erdogan-given-heros-welcome-in-streets-of-arbil-najaf.html



[3] "Turkey's Erdogan Urges Syria to go ahead with Reforms,"

Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, March 28, 2011

www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=the-head-of-intelligence-visited-syria-2011-03-28



[4] "In Lebanon's Beirut, Shift of Turkey's Axis is

Welcomed," Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, November

25, 2010

www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-will-not-remain-silent-if-israel-attacks-lebanon-2010-11-25



[5] "Turkey, Russia find Common Ground on Iran, Hamas

Role," Today's Zaman, May 13, 2010

www.todayszaman.com/news-210093-102-turkey-russia-find-common-ground-on-iran-hamas-role.html



[6] "Cleric Lambasts Saudi Military Intervention in

Bahrain," Fars News Agency, April 2, 2011

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9001134080



[7] "Ankara Moves to Broker Libya Deal," Hurriyet Daily News

and Economic Review, April 4, 2011

www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkeys-libya-cease-fire-diplomacy--2011-04-04



[8] "Ahmadinejad Deplores NATO Militaristic Approach in

Libya," Fars News Agency, April 5, 2011

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9001160654



[9] Shibley Telhami, "2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll,"

Brookings Institute, August 5, 2010

www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2010/08_arab_opinion_poll_telhami/08_arab_opinion_poll_telhami.pdf

slide no.66.



[10] "Attitude of the Arab World to Turkey after the

Flotilla," MEMRI, June 19, 2010

www.memri.org.il/cgi-webaxy/sal/sal.pl?lang=he&ID=107345_memri&dbid=articles&act=show3&dataid=2425



[11] "Leader: Region to Experience More Developments in the

Future," Fars News Agency, April 3, 2011

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9001141125







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Copyright Foreign Policy Research Institute

(http://www.fpri.org/)

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