Monday, March 7, 2011

Canada At The Cusp

From FPRI:

CANADA AT THE CUSP




by David T. Jones



In February, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Tory

Party celebrated having governed Canada as a minority for

five years. This date set a record for minority government

duration-a somewhat dubious accomplishment, but far better

than being in Opposition. Obviously, the Tories would have

much preferred to have a majority, but the current run of

minority government reflects a circumstance in Canadian

politics that while uniquely frustrating to politicians is

less so to voting citizens.



Unsurprisingly, on this five-year anniversary, pundits

disgorged a raft of commentary and analysis on Harper's

accomplishments (or lack thereof, depending on the bent of

the commentator). Likewise, they expounded on the

circumstances and personalities involved in this ongoing

minority.



Harper's record-setting mark also backs into the question of

the next election. Officially, the law schedules the next

election for October 2012, but with a minority government,

it could happen when/if the government is defeated on a

confidence vote. Such a circumstance forces all parties to

be election-ready at every instance and provides a rich mine

for speculation. As the federal budget is due to be

presented on March 22, providing a proximate cause for such

a defeat, it has prompted even more media frenzy. (The

absence of diversion during the cabin-fever Canadian winter

can also take credit.)



FRAGMENTATION OF THE CANADIAN POLITY

The Canadian electorate is essentially left-of-center,

devoted to a social welfare/tax heavy framework that more

reflects European political-economic thinking than south-of-

the-border politics. Conservatives (or what passes for

"conservative" in Canada) comprise approximately 30 to 35

percent of the electorate; polling suggests that this figure

is rock solid, but you don't get a majority government from

a third of the voters (especially as most of them are

located west of Ontario). The Tories' task is to move the

numbers above their base to the approximately 40 percent

range that will accord them a majority.



How do you win with 40 percent? You watch with a polite

smile/smirk while the rest of the significantly more liberal

portion of the electorate demolition derby each other. This

portion of the Canadian spectrum now includes Liberals (25

percent); Socialists (New Democrat Party- 20 percent);

Greens (about 10 percent); and Quebec separatists (Bloc

Quebecois, about 10 percent, but confined to Quebec).



The frustration on the left is palatable. The Political

Science 101 logic is obvious: combine enough of these shards

to make a coalition that will jettison the Tories and elect

a liberal/left government (looking at the UK Tory-Liberal

coalition-of-convenience prompts anticipatory salivating).

However, the Canadian impetus to fratricide has been a

generation-long imperative. As one might imagine there are

"principles" and "personalities" involved. Moreover, the

Liberals still believe themselves to be Canada's "natural

governing party." Based on having held power about 70

percent of the 20th century; they continue to believe that a

better leader, a Tory error, or an appropriate correlation

of sun spots will bring back what is "natural." The NDP is

significantly more ideological than the Liberals-and

believes that it is gnawing away at the Liberal

constituencies and may take second place in the next

election (so why compromise now)? The "Greens" have support

that is a continent wide and an inch deep: they have yet to

elect a federal Member of Parliament. And the Bloc

Quebecois (BQ) has leveraged adroitly its Quebec dominance

to get additional benefits for its province, having

marginalized the Liberals and benefitted from Tory errors in

dealing with Quebeckers.



Liberals and NDP (supported by the BQ) machinated to defeat

the Tories and replace the just-elected government with a

coalition in December 2008. Such a coalition is standard for

much of the world but would have been unprecedented for

Canada. Harper, employing a variety of parliamentary

tactics, managed to avoid a confidence vote, suspended

Parliament, and rallied public opinion against any coalition

that would depend on separatists to survive. He has

continued to employ the spectre of such a separatist-

government coalition to illegitimatize efforts to unite the

left.



SO WILL THERE BE A NEAR TERM ELECTION?

Predicting the future is easy; predicting it correctly is

not. "It depends" is usually the safe answer. But the honest

answer is closer to the "nobody knows," or "those who know

aren't talking and those who are talking don't know." And

the driver behind the wheel is the prime minister; Stephen

Harper has led his party three times into national

elections, and each time he has improved Tory parliamentary

standing. He now stands 12 seats short of a majority; his

politico-social objectives are only possible with a

majority, and he will make every effort to orchestrate such

a majority. Yet when (and if) polling statistics will assure

a majority is unpredictable. That happy circumstance is not

currently the case-or at least not with the assurance that

Harper would desire. The possibility of a majority

appears-and disappears-like a chimera in the snow.



But in the "just in case" option, both government and

opposition have been campaigning frenetically. The

government hit the road during a late-February parliamentary

recess to announce (or reannounce) various spending

initiatives (cry "pork") in every village and town

throughout the land. Simultaneously, they have hit the

airwaves with attack ads, focused on the alleged

carpetbagger elements of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff,

who spent most of his adult life living and working outside

Canada. ("Just visiting" and "He didn't come back for you"

have been the themes.) The Opposition, with no largess to

distribute to the public, has countered with itemized lists

of Harper/Tory errors and sins of omission and commission.



Nevertheless, an enduring political aphorism is that

Oppositions do not win elections; Governments lose them.

Since, sooner or later, there must be an election, what are

the Tories pluses and minuses?



THE POSITIVES

The Economy. During this "Great Recession," the Canadian

economy has outperformed the rest of the G-8. Harper has

managed to provide enough pump priming to help the recovery

while projecting reduced spending that could bring the

budget into balance by 2015, rather than decades into the

never-never. Canadian unemployment, historically 2 points

higher than that of the United States, is now significantly

lower (7.8 percent to 9.0+ percent). It has recovered all

jobs lost during the Recession. GDP growth figures are

respectable; interest rates/inflation remains low; the oil

sands production has surged the Canadian dollar to rough

parity with the U.S. dollar. These are "to die for" results

despite the basic problem that ultimately the Canadian

economy is locked to the U.S. economy; there are distinct

limits for Canadian prosperity if the U.S. recovery

continues to stagnate. In response, all the Opposition can

do is mutter that they could have done better and/or spent

differently with less debt. Nobody is buying that argument.



Social Tranquility. Quebec sovereignty remains a national

nonissue as long as the provincial separatists are out of

power. This "remission" from constitutional wars has

endured since the Liberals gained provincial power in June

2003 and, despite current unpopularity, they do not have to

face the electorate until late 2012--past the next federal

election. And Harper, sometimes maladroitly, has attempted

to mollify Quebeckers and keep the sovereignist canine

sleeping.



Political Financing. Tory fundraising has built on the

small donor paradigm, creating a money-raising machine that

gives the party great flexibility in orchestrating between-

election publicity. The Tories have no need for big

business financing (which earlier was made illegal by the

Liberals in a decision that still appears "dumb as a bag of

hammers," as one senior Liberal called it at the time). The

tactical result is that the Tories have repeatedly unleashed

attack ad campaigns putting the Liberals on the defensive

and "defining" their leadership invidiously. Once a

campaign begins officially, funding is legally limited, but

beforehand, it is not.



Solved the Afghanistan Conundrum. The decade-long Canadian

combat commitment to Afghanistan is ending in July. It was

never popular; Afghanistan is far away, and there was no

9/11 imperative to galvanize popular support. The

commitment was a good neighbor substitute for not having

been one of the "willing" during the Iraq/Saddam Hussein

war. Nevertheless, Canadians are leaving with honor; their

mission is morphing into a training contingent with much

reduced troop levels. This gives Canadians more of what they

prefer: "peacekeeping" rather than "peacemaking," with much

lower casualty counts. And the government has maneuvered

adroitly. Having absorbed disproportionate casualties for

its troop commitment and refurbished its depleted "good NATO

ally" account, it has also given fair warning for its combat

force reduction in a region where the U.S. government has

ramped up its efforts, military and civilian, so gains will

not be degraded.



Harper's Leadership. The general, albeit sometimes

grudging, conclusion is that Harper ranks above his

political competitors as a national leader. He slowly has

blurred his media-created stiff and "scary" image and

surprised observers by joining cellist Yo-yo Ma at a

National Arts Center gala and playing the piano and singing

"With a Little Help from My Friends." As a serious student

of hockey, he also connects with average Canadian males.

Essentially, Harper is an unlovable introvert, but he is

scintillatingly smart; "clean" in the picture-book wife and

children, no scandals imagery; immensely focused; operates a

highly disciplined, loyal party and parliamentary caucus,

and is a master of political tactics.



THE NEGATIVES

Harper's Leadership. His strengths are his weaknesses. The

tightly disciplined caucus generates charges of dictatorial

over-control, a "my way or the highway" image. He listens to

few, suffers fools badly, and (politely) considers much of

the world to be fools. The scintillating intelligence is

too often demonstrated in cutting rhetoric during

parliamentary Question Period, making him appear "mean"

rather than adroit. The mastery of political tactics can

become "too clever by half." Since Harper is close to being

a one-man show for the Tories, all errors by ministers and

MPs end on his doorstep.



Conservative Principles. While hardly a "conservative" in

U.S. terms, Harper has compromised his preferred positions

first to be elected and now to govern. Nevertheless, his

efforts to eliminate a "long gun" registry, support for

tough-on-crime legislation, (relative) indifference to

green/environmentalist importuning, emphasis on sales tax

and business income tax cuts, and defense expenditures for

pricey hardware-such as F-35 fighters-are easy targets.

Internationally, he emphasized concern for human rights

abuses in China (and didn't attend the Beijing Olympics) and

strongly supports Israel-a move that was probably

instrumental in losing a rotating seat on the UNSC for

Canada.



And because he doesn't throw horse manure in the U.S.

direction every time he picks up a pitchfork, he is

unforgiven by those that remain convinced the North American

Free Trade Agreement is a USG plot to beggar our neighbor

while sucking their natural resources (oil/water) into our

insatiable maw.



The Foul Up Factor. In each of the last three elections,

there were instances when it appeared as if a Tory majority

was possible; in each it has slipped away. Between

elections, Tory support rises-and then drops with the latest

political mishap (abetted to be sure by vigorous media

criticism. Still the Tories and Harper serve into their own

net all too frequently, ranging from a foreign minister who

had a biker babe girlfriend (and left classified documents

in her apartment) to other ministers who have had public

hissy fits and/or found themselves on the wrong side of

accurate parliamentary testimony.



Consequently, there is the sense of snatch-defeat-from-the-

jaws-of-victory that hangs over the Tories. Plus, there is a

further sense that the Canadian public remains suspicious of

anything with a conservative label and is willing to bolt

away from the party given the least excuse. They are

willing if not happy to have Harper as leader-but not give

him a majority.



WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE UNITED STATES?

Throughout the George W. Bush years and the first 18 months

of the Obama administration, we have had a "no problems"

relationship with Canada. Or, to be more precise, the

problems have been of the technical economic and security

nature that remain sourced to attitudinal differences, for

example, protecting privacy vs. enhancing security or polite

exchanges over trade differences (Canadian softwood lumber

policy). With our foreign policy cup overflowing, it has

been pleasant to have a northern neighbor that is looking

after its interests but not convinced that it must tell us

how Ottawa could better run U.S. foreign affairs.



Historically, Canadian Tories have been easier partners than

Liberals. That "fit" has been best between Tories and

Republicans, but works pragmatically with Democrats as

well-particularly when the U.S. government is avoiding

rather than seeking problems, as in continental missile

defense or Arctic sovereignty questions juxtaposing Canadian

claims that the Northwest Passage is Canadian territorial

water vs. U.S. unequivocal commitment to maintaining it as

an international waterway.



A Liberal government would be_ different. Currently, the

Liberals are campaigning against everything the Tories are

doing. While it is the duty of the Opposition to oppose,

Liberals express a traditional attitude against the United

States. While Tories want the best relationship with the

United States that will not cost them the next election,

Liberals have always sought the worst bilateral relationship

that would not prompt U.S. retaliation. Currently, they are

arguing the proposed perimeter agreement to enhance North

American security would threaten Canadian sovereignty. They

plan to reopen the agreement to purchase F-35s. They are

again skeptical about the free trade agreement. They

demonize (Tory) political advertisements as "American style"

politics. While some of the rhetoric doubtless is just

rhetoric, one can never fully discount words.



Over 30 years ago, the Iranian revolutionaries seized U.S.

diplomats and our Tehran embassy. Then Canadian ambassador

Ken Taylor sheltered six U.S. diplomats in his residence,

arranged for their escape using Canadian passports, and

acted as de facto CIA station chief by providing Washington

with detailed intelligence for months. The action was fully

supported by a short-lived Tory government; then Liberal

opposition leader, Pierre Trudeau, was unhelpful (even when

the situation was explained to him). One can wonder whether

a "prime minister" Trudeau would have directed Taylor to say

"no room at the inn" and wonder equally just what a Liberal

government would do in a comparable situation today.



----------------------------------------------------------

Copyright Foreign Policy Research Institute

(http://www.fpri.org/).

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