Monday, March 7, 2011

The Value Of The Visegrad Four

From FPRI:

THE VALUE OF THE VISEGRAD FOUR


by Adrian A. Basora



March 7, 2011



Adrian A. Basora was U.S. Ambassador to Czechoslovakia from

July 1992 to December 1992, and then U.S. Ambassador to the

Czech Republic from 1993 to 1995. Currently, he serves as a

FPRI Senior Fellow and is Director of the Project on

Democratic Transitions at FPRI. This essay is a slightly

edited version of an article which appeared in the Atlantic

Council's Issue Brief.



Available on the web and in pdf format at:

http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201103.basora.centraleurope.html



THE VALUE OF THE VISEGRAD FOUR



by Adrian A. Basora



Relations between the United States and Central Europe have

stabilized after a period punctuated by tensions over Iraq,

fears of a resurgent Russia and uncertainty about U.S.

policy toward the region. Critical to this outcome was

sustained outreach by the Obama Administration over the past

year-and-a-half, including support for NATO contingency

planning and military exercises in the Baltics-all designed

to provide highly sought "strategic reassurance." At the

same time, it is clear that the full potential of the

relationship has not been realized. What had once seemed

like immutable ties have frayed through mutual inattention,

plus factors ranging from Central Europe's deepening

integration into European structures to America's intense

focus on the Middle East and South Asia. However, the time

is now ripe to explore avenues for deeper cooperation.



The year 2011 is without precedent in terms of Central

European[1] leadership, with Hungary and Poland holding the

rotating European Union (EU) presidencies and Lithuania

taking up the OSCE Chairmanship-in-Office in the

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

This "Year of Central Europe" coincides with recent efforts

by Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to

revitalize the "Visegrad" cooperation framework, in the hope

of gaining greater influence in Europe and a renewed channel

for U.S.-Central European dialogue. Although skeptics might

wonder whether this initiative can realistically make a

significant contribution to transatlantic relations, U.S.

officials are in fact engaging with the "Visegrad Four" at

senior levels. So are leading policy thinkers outside of

government, whose parallel efforts to engage the region have

played a role in reassuring Central European partners of

U.S. commitment.



VISEGRAD AT TWENTY: A MATURE PARTNER?

The Visegrad group was launched in February 1991 by the

first generation of Central Europe's post-communist

transition leaders: Lech Walesa, Joszef Antall and Vaclav

Havel (before Czechoslovakia's "Velvet Divorce" in 1993).

At that point, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia had

emerged as the clear front-runners of democratization in the

post-communist region. Their leaders wanted to strengthen

the reform momentum by working together. And, despite strong

initial U.S and Western European support for their

transitions, they also feared that Moscow might once again

become a threat to their newly-won freedoms.



A decade later, with internal reforms far more consolidated

and NATO and EU membership either imminent or already

achieved, Visegrad cooperation lost momentum. By the mid-

2000s, however, Central European perspectives had once again

begun to change-as Vladimir Putin consolidated his power and

sought to undercut Western-style democracy in Russia's "near

abroad." The Russian military intervention in Georgia in

August 2008 and what the Central Europeans saw as a weak

NATO and EU responses sharply heightened their concerns.

These renascent fears of potential abandonment by the West

were exacerbated just a few months later, when the Obama

Administration announced its "reset" policy toward Moscow

and its decision not to deploy ground-based anti-ballistic

missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.



These concerns led former Presidents Havel, Walesa and

several other respected leaders of the early stages of

Central Europe's transformation to co-sign an open letter to

President Obama in July 2009. They said, in effect: "Do not

abandon us now, after all you have done to enable our

successful democratization, and after all we have done to

prove ourselves loyal allies when you needed us" (read: Iraq

and Afghanistan). In this context, regional leaders

undertook to reinvigorate the V4 - efforts given further

impetus by the election of center-right, Atlanticist

governments in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.



A year-and-a-half later, following consistent U.S.

engagement, V4 Political Directors came to Washington in

December 2010 for high-level meetings with U.S. government

officials. The list of issues that they brought to discuss

bespoke progress and confidence Rather than dwelling

primarily on fears of Russia and a desire for more emphatic

U.S. security guarantees (along the lines of the 2009 open

letter to President Obama), the Political Directors' agenda

and approach were forward looking and results-oriented They

addressed a range of issues including Afghanistan and

Turkey, energy security for all of Europe, potential U.S.-EU

cooperation regarding the EU's Eastern Partnership, and

integration of the Western Balkans into NATO and the EU.



ANOTHER "SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP"?

Despite the enthusiasm surrounding these meetings, questions

remain as to whether there is a realistic basis for the kind

of "special relationship" that the four Visegrad countries

seek with the United States. The answers revolve around four

key issues:



1. Can the Visegrad Four hope to gain significantly more

by working with the United States as a group rather than

by dealing with Washington separately?



2. From a Washington perspective, would the potential

benefits justify the efforts that overburdened senior

U.S. government officials would have to expend on this

new "special cooperative framework" for it to produce a

real impact?



3. Could the V4 countries, by acting together, become a

more significant factor inside the European Union and

thus exert leverage within the overall transatlantic

community that is disproportionate to their countries'

size?



4. Do the V4 have common long-term interests that are

sufficiently compelling to sustain their current

cooperation through future electoral cycles and changes

of government? (Recent efforts to re-energize the V4

have been undertaken by four relatively new center-right

governments with Atlanticist leanings.)



THE GAINS OF A GROUP

On the first question, the answer to would seem to be a

clear "yes." Given Washington's fiscal crisis and the many

urgent challenges that the United States faces around the

world, American policymakers will inevitably have fewer

resources and less time than in the past to devote to small,

individual European countries. This is true even for a

country the size of Poland, with its traditional special

ties to the United States and strategic location. But the

Poland-Plus-Three combination embodied in the Visegrad Four

initiative might have a chance for greater

resonance-particularly if the V4 are also seen as often

speaking for like-minded countries in Central Europe and

beyond.



THE VALUE TO WASHINGTON

The second question is the potential value for Washington.

That will depend in large part on the extent to which the

Visegrad countries can gain support for their own positions

within Europe, and on how complementary these positions are

with U.S. goals. In other words, the V4 countries are much

more likely to have an impact on Washington if they focus

their attention on issues on which they have some traction

within Europe, which are of significant interest to the

United States, and on which U.S. and V4 goals overlap

substantially.



Recent events in Belarus, disturbing trends in Ukraine, the

Russia-Georgia war and the Russia-Ukraine gas confrontation

serve to remind that the work of creating a Europe "whole

and free" is unfinished, and that the stakes involved in the

post-communist space are of global import. The region today

is less settled, less secure, and less in synch with the

United States than it was in the 1990s. Thus, the United

States should pursue any promising opportunity to

reinvigorate and consolidate democratic progress in the

post-communist regions of Europe.[2] This means working

more closely with those, such as the V4, who place a high

priority on these goals. In fact, given budgetary trends,

leveraging such partnerships may be the best way for the

United States to remain meaningfully engaged.



GREATER LEVERAGE

Regarding the third question-the V4's potential to exert

greater influence on selected EU policies-it is less than

evident that four new members with a combined population of

65 million can exercise broad influence in a European Union

of 500 million. However, the V4 are not without assets.

Under Council of Ministers' rules, if Poland, Hungary,

Slovakia and the Czech Republic vote as a bloc, their total

voting weight equals that of France and Germany combined.

Obviously, voting rights are not the sole determinant of

political influence within the EU, and additional leverage

would be needed. For starters, it would be helpful if the

V4 were frequently able to speak for like-minded countries

such as the Baltic States, Romania and other post-communist

EU members. And they would also need to gain support among

some of their Western European partners. (There have in fact

already been successful "V4-Plus" meetings to coordinate

positions on specific topics of clear common interest.)



While it is hard to imagine the V4 carrying the day against

France and Germany on major controversial issues, many of

their priorities in fact seem unlikely to provoke such

opposition. Integration of the Western Balkans into Western

structures (Kosovo aside) meets with little opposition

within the EU; and diversification of Europe's energy

supplies has begun to garner broader support as well. These

are both areas of considerable interest to the United

States-and areas in which the United States can make a

contribution complementary to that of the EU. To the extent

that the V4 can enliven the European Union's interest in

pursuing these goals, U.S. interests will be served, all the

more so if the resources Washington has available to support

democracy and other reforms in the region continue to

decline.



For similar reasons, the EU's Eastern Partnership Program

(EaP) is an area of particularly strong complementarity

between V4 and U.S. objectives. What started as a

Polish/Swedish initiative to offer Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus

and the Caucasian republics an attractive alternative to

near-term EU membership has gradually gained wider support,

not only among the ten new post-communist members of the

Union, but also in Scandinavia and elsewhere. The United

States maintains substantial democracy-assistance programs

in several of these countries. Closer U.S.-V4-EU cooperation

could help encourage their movement toward Western political

and economic systems.



While successful U.S.-V4 coordination along the lines of

these two examples would require a careful choice of issues,

skillful diplomacy, and a bit of patience, the payoff could

be highly worthwhile.



HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

This leads to our fourth question: the likelihood of long-

term policy consensus among the four Visegrad countries

themselves. To gain and retain the type of influence

discussed above, the V4 countries would have to remain

united on certain key issues over time.



Based on their track record of the past 21 years, however,

it is not a given that the V4's current united front will

survive changing electoral coalitions in coming years. While

post-communist Poland has consistently pursued strongly

Atlanticist policies under both conservative and social

democratic governments, this has not always been the case

with Slovakia. Bratislava's interest in pursuing a close

relationship with the United States and NATO has waxed and

waned as governments have alternated between strongly

Western-oriented center-right coalitions and Slovakia's more

nationalistic and populist political parties. Hungary and

the Czech Republic, while more consistent in their Western

orientation than Slovakia under populist governments, have

not always been quite as energetically Atlanticist as

Poland.



Fortunately, the current center-right Slovak coalition

government is strongly committed to transatlantic

cooperation, as are the Czech and Hungarian governments,

which explains the current high degree of consensus and

enthusiasm of the Visegrad Four. Slovakia holds the rotating

presidency of the V4 into summer 2011, and the recently-

installed Radicova government has given high priority to

making a success of its current V4 presidency. In a small

country like Slovakia, considerable prestige attaches to

foreign policy achievements, and this could prove to be a

classic opportunity of "success breeding success."



The present Visegrad constellation is also blessed with a

tantalizing short-term opportunity: this year's back-to-back

EU presidencies of Hungary and Poland. This combines with

the V4's current high internal cohesion and commitment to

use their "trifecta" presidencies to full effect to give

them a unique advantage. If the Slovaks and Hungarians can

parlay their presidencies into even a few tangible results

during 2011, this would demonstrate the V4's potential for

impact in the longer term. Such success, in turn, could be

used to help mold domestic opinion in its favor of close

Visegrad cooperation, particularly in Slovakia and Hungary,

thus creating a positive political dynamic that might

further consolidate longer-term cohesion among the V4 and

between the V4 and the United States



A positive and creative U.S. response to V4 policy

initiatives would also be very helpful. Furthermore, a

forthcoming U.S. government response would be further

amplified if there were similarly positive engagement by

non-government circles in the United States. This could take

the form of new business investment; increased educational,

cultural and leadership exchanges; high-profile conferences,

and other events that put the spotlight on the V4 and on

their mutual interests with the United States.



CONCLUSION

In sum, for the V4-U.S. relationship to take on lasting

momentum, many things would have to go right over the coming

year. However, 2011 seems to offer abundant possibilities.

Given that the Visegrad Four have identified key areas of

shared interest and conveyed their desire to use the EU's

"Year of Central Europe" to enhance transatlantic relations,

a reciprocal effort on this side of the Atlantic, to include

a broad range of non-governmental actors, might well prove

worth the effort.



President George H.W. Bush stated in his famous "Europe

Whole and Free" speech of May, 1989: "If we are to fulfill

our vision-our European vision-the challenges of the next 40

years will ask no less of us." As we begin the second half

of these 40 post-Cold War years, we should refocus on this

challenge. The V4-U.S. dialogue looks like a good place to

start.



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Notes



[1] Author's note: Although this article focuses largely on

the Visegrad Group and recent U.S.-V4 consultations, many of

the issues pertain to U.S. relations with a more broadly

construed Central Europe, i.e., the post-communist members

of the EU.



[2] Although it is outside the scope of this paper, examples

of democratic backsliding and reform fatigue are occurring

not only on Europe's margins, but in the EU's ten newest

members, including the V4. Problems with corruption, rule

of law, media freedom and the treatment of minorities.

These phenomena argue for more, not less U.S. engagement

with Central European allies.



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Copyright Foreign Policy Research Institute

(http://www.fpri.org/).

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